Stevenson’s army, November 14
– The Edogan-Trump meeting produced expressions of friendship, but no announced agreement on any of the issues between the two countries. Axios reports, however, that Erdogan showed the Americans, including several Senators, a video of Kurdish atrocities.
– Problems with F35.
– WSJ says trade deal snagged over farm purchases.
– FP says Latin America divided over Bolivia.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 13
– Trump has invited some GOP Senators to meet with him and Erdogan today.
– WaPo outlines the US proposal to Turkey, similar to what it offered in the failed effort to prevent an invasion of Syria.
– No anti-ISIS air strikes since Turkey moved into Syria.
– In a private speech, John Bolton said Trump’s foreign policy sometimes was to serve his personal interests.
– Lawfare summarizes the testimony so far in the impeachment inquiry.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Revenge of the wonks
Hard to do better than this for a preview of today’s impeachment testimony in the House:
Bill Taylor and George Kent are people who know Ukraine well and thought they understood US policy towards it.
What they didn’t figure on was a President willing to upend that policy in favor of his own personal interests, as he will no doubt do again today when he meets with Turkey’s President Erdogan. Those interests are still obscure, but Trump has consistently yielded to Erdogan’s desires and ignored important US interests, in particular in protecting the Kurds in Syria and continuing to use them to fight any resurgence of the Islamic State. As with Ukraine, the Congress is mostly united in the opposite direction: it wants sanctions on Turkey for its purchase of a Russian air defense system and enormously resents Ankara’s behavior towards Kurdish forces that have partnered with the US.
What might Trump give to Erdogan this time around? The Turkish President more than anything else wants the extradition of his arch rival Fethullah Gulen, the 78-year-old Pennsylvania resident whom Erdogan accuses of plotting the attempted coup in 2016. He also wants to avoid sanctions and convince Trump to allow Turkey’s purchase of F35 fighters, some parts of which are made in Turkey, to go ahead. I’d bet on Erdogan getting some or all of his wish list, without any clear quid pro quo. That is Trump’s pattern with strong leaders whom he admires, and there may well be other still unknown business or financial interests at stake.
Of course American presidents often make decisions on foreign policy based on their own domestic political interests. There is nothing new in that. President Trump is however an outlier: nothing else seems to matter, and he acknoledges no restraint on asking for electoral help from foreigners even if it is against the law. It is already well-established that he tried to extort the promise of a judicial investigation of the Bidens from Ukrainian President Zelensky. He also offered US aid, already authorized by the Congress, as an incentive. “Abuse of power” is almost too good a label for this behavior.
We will all be consumed for the next few weeks by impeachment testimony and the eventual vote in the House, whose outcome is already clear. To know whether Trump will be removed from office, keep an eye on opinion polling in red states and districts. If his support starts to fade there, at least a few Republican Senators may betray the Trump bandwagon. A president who loses his solid majority in the Senate on removal from office would be enormously weakened, even if the 2/3 majority is not reached.
The wonks are going to have their days in the House. Whether they will get their full measure of revenge for a president who fails to defend US interests is still not clear.
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Stevenson’s army, November 12
– The Atlantic examines changing views of military officers on staying apolitical.
– There’s also an article quoting retired generals who have criticized Trump.
– FP says SecDef Esper is gaining influence.
-Politico has more details on NSA O’Brien’s efforts to downsize the NSC staff.
– Which Dan Drezner says doesn’t matter.
– Pence effect? Politico says Trump wants to condition US aid on religious liberty.
– WOTR has ideas on how to solve Iraq’s political-military crisis.
– NYT has long backgrounder on Ukraine impeachment testimony.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 11
On this Veterans Day, all gratitude and honor to those who have served in uniform!
Get ready for Wednesday. In addition to the start of the impeachment hearings, Presidents Trump and Erdogan will meet and hold a news conference. [Usually these are limited to 2 questions from each country’s media. We’ll see.]
Meanwhile, Leader McConnell wants to know what sanctions Trump will favor. And NSA O’Brien suggests something punishing Russia S-400 purchase
Nikki Haley blames Kelly and Tillerson for thwarting Trump.
NYT has long articles documenting Russian interference in Madagascar and Biden’s activities in Ukraine.
And here’s a good history refresher on presidential cooperation with investigations.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks November 10-16
Beirut 1958: How America’s Wars in the Middle East Began|November 13, 2019|10:00AM-11:30AM|Brookings Institution|Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington DC, 20036|Register Here
On July 15, 1958, U.S. Marines assaulted the beach in Beirut, Lebanon. The amphibious attack was the first combat operation in the Middle East by American troops. It followed months of intrigue, espionage and conspiracy leading to a bloody coup in Baghdad, Iraq the day before the Marines landed. Now more than 60 years later, the United States is engaged in multiple combat operations across the region — seemingly endless wars.
In his new book, “Beirut 1958,” Senior Fellow Bruce Riedel tells the story of the mission and draws lessons on how to better deal with future challenges in the region. Please join the Center for Middle East Policy on Wednesday, November 13 for the launch of “Beirut 1958,” featuring a discussion with Riedel, moderated by Senior Fellow Suzanne Maloney. Following the discussion, the participants will take questions from the audience.
The Middle East in 2020 – What Are the Pathways to Stability?|November 13, 2019|9:30AM-4:00PM|Middle East Institute|JW Marriott Washington DC|1331 Pennsylvania Ave NW|Washington DC 20004|Register Here
The conference will feature a series of panels, one-on-one conversations, and a debate examining key priorities for reducing threats and building long-term stability in the MENA region given rising tensions and an increasingly unpredictable environment.
9:00-9:30am | Arrival and Registration
9:30-9:35am | Welcome Remarks
Paul Salem
President, MEI
9:40-10:00am | Keynote Address: General (ret.) Joseph Votel on U.S. Middle East Priorities
10:00-11:00am | Panel: Are there Pathways to De-escalation in the Middle East?
H.E. Mohammed Baharoon
Director General, b’huth
LTG. (ret.) Michael Nagata
Former director of Strategic Operational Planning, National Counterterrorism Center; Hanada Bridge, LLC
Randa Slim
Senior fellow and director, conflict resolution and Track II Dialogues, MEI
Gonul Tol
Director, Turkish studies, MEI
Muna Shikaki, moderator
Correspondent, Al Arabiya
11:00am-11:15am | Coffee Break
11:15am-11:45am | Debate: How Will the Next Administration Confront Challenges and Meet Opportunities in the Middle East?
The Honorable Jim Moran
Former member of Congress, Virginia’s 8th Congressional District
Michael Pregent
Senior fellow, Hudson Institute
Randa Slim, moderator
Senior fellow and director, conflict resolution and Track II Dialogues, MEI
11:50am-12:20pm | Panel: How Can MENA Countries Reduce the Threat of Cyber Attacks?
Steph Shample
Senior analyst, Flashpoint
Edwin Wilson
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Security
Richard A. Clarke, moderator
Chairman, Board of Governors, MEI
12:20-1:00pm | Lunch buffet
1:00-1:50pm | Panel: How is the Middle East Engaging with the Broader World?
H.E. David Bakradze
Ambassador of the Republic of Georgia to the United States
Intissar Fakir
Fellow, Middle East program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Deborah Lehr
Vice Chairman and Executive Director, Paulson Institute
Aparna Pande
Director, Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia, Hudson Institute
David Lawler, moderator
Editor, Axios World Stream
1:55-2:45pm | Panel: What are the Key Economic Challenges Facing the Middle East in 2020?
Jihad Azour
Director, Middle East and Central Asia, International Monetary Fund
Herman Franssen
Scholar, MEI
Habib Kairouz
Managing partner, Rho Partners
Delila Khaled
Senior advisor, Laurel Strategies
Adva Saldinger, moderator
Associate editor, Devex
2:45-3:00pm | Coffee Break
3:00pm-3:50pm | Panel: How are Arab Youth Innovating and Mobilizing for Change?
Sami Hourani
Founder and CEO, Forsa for Education
Joyce Karam
Corresponent, The National UAE
Shady Khalil
Managing partner, Greenish
Yasmeen Mjalli
Founder, BabyFist
Dina Sherif, moderator
Founder and CEO, Ahead of the Curve
4:00pm | Closing Remarks
2019 Czech and Slovak Freedom Lecture: 30 Years of Czech and Slovak Freedom|November 13, 2019|12:00PM-1:30PM|Woodrow Wilson Center|6th Floor, Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center, One Woodrow Wilson Plaza, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington DC 20004|Register Here
This year‘s Freedom Lecture is co-hosted by the Embassy of the Czech Republic and the Embassy of the Slovak Republic. Both a Czech and a Slovak speaker are featured in order to celebrate the 30th anniversary of the Velvet Revolution, which saw the return of freedom and democracy to both countries on November 17, 1989.
Speakers
Introduction
- Ivan Korčok Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Slovak Republic to the United States
- Hynek Kmoníček Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Czech Republic to the United States
Keynote
- Katarína Cséfalvayová Chairwoman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, National Council of the Slovak Republic
- Simon Pánek Former Czech student activist during the Velvet Revolution in 1989; Executive Director and Co-Founder of the largest Czech humanitarian organization, People in Need
Moderator
- Blair A. Ruble Distinguished FellowFormer Wilson Center Vice President for Programs (2014-2017); Director of the Comparative Urban Studies Program/Urban Sustainability Laboratory (1992-2017); Director of the Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies (1989-2012) and Director of the Program on Global Sustainability and Resilience (2012-2014)
Understanding the New Wave of Arab Protests: An Expert Panel|November 14, 2019|10:30AM-12:00PM|Woodrow Wilson Center|6th Floor, Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center, One Woodrow Wilson Plaza, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington DC 20004|Register Here
A new series of protests and demonstrations has erupted across the Middle East and North Africa over the past 9 months. In Iraq, Lebanon, Sudan, Algeria, Jordan, and Egypt, these protests were largely triggered by dire socio-economic conditions, corruption and a sense of economic and political disenfranchisement with outright calls for regime change in the case of Algeria, Sudan, and very recently in Lebanon.
Join our discussion with a panel of Wilson and regional experts to analyze these events and understand difference and similarities between the present wave of protests and those that erupted in 2011.
Speakers
Introduction
- Merissa Khurma Project Manager, Middle East Special Initiatives
Moderator
- David Ottaway Middle East FellowMiddle East Specialist and Former Washington Post Correspondent
Panelists
- Rend Al-Rahim Co-founder and President of the Iraq Foundation
- Marina Ottaway Middle East Fellow and Former Senior Research Associate and Head of the Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Hussain Abdul-Hussain Washington Bureau Chief, Al Rai Newspaper
Protests in Chile: The Path Forward|November 14, 2019|12:00PM-1:00PM|Woodrow Wilson Center|6th Floor, Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center, One Woodrow Wilson Plaza, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington DC 20004|Register Here
Since mid-October, Chile has been rocked by massive protests—some marked by extreme violence, but the vast majority of them peaceful and historic in numbers. Triggered by an increase in subway fares, the protests have laid bare deep inequalities and frustration over unmet needs in one of Latin America’s most prosperous countries. The government of President Sebastián Piñera has called for a dialogue with opposition parties over measures to address the crisis. Talks are ongoing.
Please join us for a discussion with noted Chilean experts over the underlying causes of unrest and, just as important, the path forward. Will the dialogue between the government and the opposition parties be successful? What reforms are on the table? Are there grounds for consensus, and if so, over what? How quickly will the legislature respond to measures introduced by the government or the opposition? How best can constitutional issues be addressed? How will the government address future challenges to public order in the midst of widespread criticism over human rights abuses committed by government forces?
Speakers
Moderator
- Cynthia J. Arnson Director, Latin American Program
Speakers
- Felipe Agüero FellowAssociate Professor, Department of International Studies, University of Miami
- Lucía Dammert Global FellowAssociate Professor, Universidad de Santiago de Chile; Expert on public security issues in Latin America
A Conversation with First Lady of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Rula Ghani: How to Protect Afghan Women’s Rights and Build Consensus for Peace|November 14, 2019|10:00AM-11:30AM|United States Institute of Peace|2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington DC 20037|Register Here
To explore the importance of Afghan women in building a sustainable peace process, H.E. First Lady Rula Ghani will join USIP for a timely discussion on her role in the Afghan Women’s National Consensus for Peace (Ejma-e-Mili), as well as other current events on peace, security, and governance in Afghanistan. Following a keynote address by the First Lady, there will be a moderated question and answer session.
Speakers
H.E Rula Ghani
First Lady of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Nancy Lindborg, moderator
President and CEO, U.S Institute of Peace
Ending Endless War: Lessons from the Counter-ISIS War|November 15, 2019|12:15PM-1:45PM|New America|740 15th St NW #900, Washington DC 20005|Register Here
In December 2011, the last American combat troops left Iraq. The Obama administration celebrated the withdrawal as the completion of a campaign promise to end the Iraq war. Fewer than three years later, the same administration returned the U.S. to war in Iraq to fight ISIS and then extended the war into Syria. In his new report, Decisionmaking in the Counter-ISIS War, New America Senior Policy Analyst David Sterman examines how the United States returned to war in Iraq, the role of preventive war logic in that decision, and what lessons the counter-ISIS war holds for efforts to end America’s seemingly endless counter-terrorism wars.
To discuss the report, New America welcomes Dr. Joshua Geltzer, a New America International Security program fellow and former senior director for counter-terrorism at the National Security Council, and Dr. Alexandra Stark, senior researcher with New America’s Political Reform program. Dr. Stark holds a PhD from the government department at Georgetown University. She was previously a research fellow at the Middle East Initiative of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and Minerva/Jennings Randolph Peace Scholar at the United States Institute of Peace.
Participants:
David Sterman, @Dsterms
Author, Decisionmaking in the Counter-ISIS War
Senior Policy Analyst, New America International Security program
Dr. Joshua Geltzer, @jgeltzer
Fellow, New America International Security program
Former Senior Director for Counter-Terrorism, National Security Council
Dr. Alexandra Stark
Senior Researcher, New America Political Reform program
Moderator:
Melissa Salyk-Virk
Senior Policy Analyst, New America International Security program
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