Tag: Energy
Peace Picks | June 07-11, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Ultimate Authority: The Struggle for Islamic Institutions in the Arab World | June 08, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Carnegie’s Middle East Program convenes this seminar to mark the launch of its new edited volume which examines the interplay between religious establishments and governance in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria, Libya, Egypt, Algeria, and Morocco. Arab rulers are increasingly asserting control over Islamic institutions with administrative and coercive tools. These top-down policies are framed by authoritarian regimes as “reforms,” but are often calculated attempts to eliminate potential sources of dissent in ministries, seminaries, mosques, and other religious entities. At the other end of the spectrum, Islamic institutions in conflict-wracked Arab states have become prizes for competing factions to bolster their authority and popular support. Understanding these dynamics has important implications for countering violent extremism and resolving conflict, as well as appreciating evolving state-society relations across the Arab world.
Speakers:
Nathan J. Brown
Professor of political science and international affairs, George Washington University
Annelle Sheline
Research fellow in the Middle East program, the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen
Journalist; non resident fellow, Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies
Laila Alrefaai
Writer and researcher specializing in religious affairs
Frederic Wehrey (moderator)
Senior fellow in the Middle East Program, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
2. International Relations and the Middle East: US, China, and Regional Powers | June 08, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
This event marks the launch of the sixth wave of the Arab Barometer. It will bring together experts from the US and Middle East alongside Michael Robbins, Director of Arab Barometer, to delve into the results as they pertain to regional rivalries, great power competition, and prospects for regional cooperation and conflict deescalation. How has a year of global lockdown and ongoing conflict shaped regional attitudes about conflict deescalation and the need for conflict resolution channels? How do Arabs see external powers such as China, Russia, and the US as playing a future role in their countries? Have new opportunities or challenges arisen in the last year?
Speakers:
May Darwich
Lecturer of International Relations of the Middle East, University of Birmingham
Michael Robbins
Director, Arab Barometer
Randa Slim
Senior fellow and director of the Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues program, MEI
Amb. (ret.) Gerald Feierstein (moderator)
Senior vice president, MEI
3. Untapped Potential: Women, Leadership, and Water Diplomacy in the Middle East | June 09, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
The Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program and Middle East Program, with co-sponsor EcoPeace Middle East, organize this discussion on the inclusion of women in water leadership and diplomacy in the Middle East. A panel of experts will speak on the enhancement of regional diplomacy and a movement for inclusive resource decision-making. Women play a critical role in water resource management and decision-making at the community level. Yet, they are often absent from high-level water-related negotiations and agreements. By excluding women from the decision-making processes, the sustainability and effectiveness of these agreements—which are essential to broader peace and security—is undermined. What steps can country leaders and stakeholders take to ensure that women’s leadership is realized in water diplomacy?
Speakers:
Maysoon Al-Zoubi
International water and water diplomacy expert, Arab Dar Engineering Company
Natasha Carmi
Lead water specialist, Geneva Water Hub
Dalit Wolf Golan
Deputy Israel director and regional development director, EcoPeace Middle East
Martina Klimes
Advisor on water and peace, Stockholm International Water Institute
Merissa Khurma (introduction)
Program director of the Middle East Program, Wilson Center
Lauren Herzer Risi (moderator)
Project director of the environmental change and security program, Wilson Center
4. Iran’s presidential election: Domestic and international implications | June 09, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Chatham House | Register Here
The next presidential election in Iran set for 18 June 2021 takes place in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and worsening economic conditions due to fiscal mismanagement and sanctions imposed by the United States. It will also be held during ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran over the future the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) also known as the Iran nuclear agreement. Against this backdrop voter turnout is expected to be a significant factor impacting the outcome of this election.
In this Chatham House seminar, experts discuss Iran’s political map ahead of the 18 June presidential election and the ballot’s regional and international implications.
Speakers:
Nazila Fathi
Independent journalist; Non-resident scholar, Middle East Institute
Kenneth Katzman
Senior analyst in Iran and Persian Gulf affairs, Congressional Research Service
Vali Nasr
Majid Kadduri Professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University; Non-resident senior fellow, Atlantic Council
Raz Zimmt
Research fellow, Institute for National Security Studies
Sanam Vakil (moderator)
Deputy director and senior research fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House
5. Sectarian Identities and the Rise of Nationalism in the Middle East | June 09, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington | Register Here
In recent years, there has been increasing promotion of nationalist identities over sectarian schisms. In Lebanon and Iraq, anger at the prominence of sectarian identities prompted the emergence of protest movements cutting across sectarian lines, united by chants such as “all of them means all of them.” In Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has sought to promote a Saudi nationalism inclusive of previously marginalized Shia communities. In this joint AGSIW-SEPAD webinar, panelists will discuss these issues and more.
Speakers:
Geneive Abdo
Visiting fellow, AGSIW
Simon Mabon
Chair in international politics, Lancaster University; Director, Richardson Institute; Director of the sectarianism, proxies and de-sectarianisation project, AGSIW
Maha Yahya
Director, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center
Kristin Smith Diwan
Senior resident scholar, AGSI
6. Iran’s Arab Strategy and American Policy Options | June 10, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Since 1979, the foreign policy focus of the Islamic Republic of Iran has been disproportionately on the Arab World. It is also in the Arab World – in countries like Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen – where the United States and Iran have over the years competed for influence and often engaged in a zero-sum game contest for regional power. Meanwhile, the costs of Iran’s interventions in the Arab World are significant both in direct and indirect terms. Can Iran stay the course? What is the impact of Iran’s Arab policy on Arab countries? Finally, what policy challenges does Tehran’s commitment to maintaining a strong hand in the Arab World represent to Washington? MEI organizes this panel to discuss these issues.
Speakers:
Hanin Ghaddar
Friedmann fellow in the Geduld Program on Arab Politics, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Nader Uskowi
President, Sagewood Consulting; non-resident senior fellow, Atlantic Council
Mohsen Sazegara
Iranian journalist and political activist
Alex Vatanka (moderator)
Director of the Iran Program, MEI
7. Migration in Perpetuity: Yemeni Voices from the Diaspora | June 10, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
the Middle East Institute Arts and Culture Center hosts this panel exploring migration and relocation through the photography and art practice of three of the most exciting young Yemeni contemporary women artists practicing today; Shaima Al-Tamimi, Thana Faroq, and Yasmine Nasser Diaz, who are joined by the New York City-based Yemeni chef/storyteller Akram Said.
The exposition Migration in Perpetuity: Yemeni Voices from the Diaspora provides a rare exploration of a war-torn country, through the beautiful work of four vibrant Yemeni contemporary artists, as they navigate their complex relationship to the homeland and the tensions of growing up in diaspora.
Speakers:
Shaima Al-Tamimi
Artist
Thana Faroq
Artist
Yasmine Nasser Diaz
Artist
Akram Said
Artist
Lila Nazemian (moderator)
Independent curator; Special Projects Curator, ArteEas
8. Israeli Politics in the Post-Netanyahu Era | June 10, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
After four elections in two years, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid, head of the centrist Yesh Atid party, has agreed to form a broad-based, national unity government with Naftali Bennett’s far-right Yamina party, likely putting an end to the political stalemate of the last two years as well as the 12-year reign of Benjamin Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister in Israel’s history. Under the terms of the agreement, the ultra-nationalist Bennet will serve as premier for the first two years—assuming the coalition holds up that long—before handing the premiership to Lapid. The new “change government” includes an unprecedentedly diverse set of parties ranging from the pro-two state solution Meretz Party on the left to the pro-annexation Yamina on the far right, and will for the first time include an Arab party, Mansour Abbas’s United Arab List, in the ruling coalition.
How durable will the new coalition government be? What does a Naftali Bennett premiership mean for the future of a two-state solution and the Israeli occupation? How will Netanyahu deal with his new role as Israel’s opposition leader? MEI hosts this panel discussion to address these issues.
Speakers:
Thair Abu Rass
Ph.D. candidate at the Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland
Dr. Shira Efron
Senior research fellow, Institute for National Security Studies; Special advisor on Israel, RAND Corporation; Adjunct scholar at the Modern War Institute, West Point
Paul Scham
Director of the Gildenhorn Institute for Israel Studies, University of Maryland; Professor of Israel Studies, University of Maryland; Non-resident fellow, MEI
Khaled Elgindy (moderator)
Senior fellow and director of the Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
9. Report Launch: Shifting Gears: Geopolitics of the Global Energy Transition | June 11, 2021 | 1:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The Atlantic Council Global Energy Center marks the launch of its new report Shifting Gears: Geopolitics of the Global Energy Transition. Driven largely by technological advancements and policies aimed at decarbonization, the prospect that oil demand will peak in the not-too-distant future has become a topic of debate in energy circles over the past several years. So-called “peak demand” would have significant geopolitical and geoeconomic consequences for oil-producing and importing nations alike. Shifting Gears examines major geopolitical questions related to the prospect of a peak in oil demand that include the likely redistribution of oil market share between major producers; the potential for failed states or material internal political instability in major oil-producing countries; and the geopolitical impact of peak demand on major oil-consuming nations.
Speakers:
Randolph Bell (opening remarks)
Director of the Global Energy Center and Richard Morningstar Chair for Global Energy Security, Atlantic Council
Robert Johnston (keynote and moderator)
Managing director of Energy, Climate, and Resource, Eurasia Group; Nonresident senior fellow at the Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council
Håvard Halland
Senior economist, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Amy Myers Jaffe
Research professor and managing director of the Climate Policy Lab at the Fletcher School, Tufts University
10. Iran in an Emerging New World Order: A Book Talk with Ali Fathollah-Nejad | June 11, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
MEI hosts author Ali Fathollah-Nejad to discuss his new book, with Professor Anoush Ehteshami joining him on the panel as a discussant. Accounting for both domestic factional politics and the international balance of power, Ali Fatollah-Nejad’s book examines the drivers behind Iranian foreign policy since 9/11. He also examines Iran’s relations with non-Western great powers and offers a critique of the “Rouhani doctrine” and its economic and foreign-policy visions. What can we detect about Iranian geopolitical imaginations and what do we know about the competing visions of various foreign policy schools of thought in Iran? Why was Rouhani’s so-called neoliberal-inspired developmental model doomed to fail? Will the “Look to the East” political faction deepen Tehran’s pursuit of its interests in regards to ties to China in the post-Rouhani period? What does this all mean for American policy calculations vis-vis-Iran in the coming years?
Speakers:
Ali Fathollah-Nejad
Political scientist, analyst, author; non-resident senior research fellow, Afro-Middle East Centre (AMEC)
Professor Anoush Ehteshami
Director for the Institute of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, Durham University
Alex Vatanka (moderator)
Director of the Iran Program, MEI
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Stevenson’s army, May 11
– Fred Kaplan explains the pipeine context.
– NYT reports on DarkSide.
– WSJ notes that TSA [!] not CISA is responsible for pipeline cybersecurity.
–Shots fired at Iranian boats.
– Open Secrets has new foreign lobbying data. Look at China’s.
– Politico says WH now requires approval of quotes in background briefings.
– Provocative article: WOTR writer says DOD is doing AI all wrong, shouldn’t be top-down.
– Former CIA official says IC shouldn’t do propaganda.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks|February 2-8
- Syria’s Tragedy, Our Lessons| March 2, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM | CSIS | Register Here
The CSIS Middle East Program and Humanitarian Agenda are pleased to host David Miliband, President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, to discuss the current crisis in Idlib, the dangerous lessons of war, and how Syria could serve as a model for future conflicts.
Jacob Kurtzer, Interim Director of the CSIS Humanitarian Agenda, will provide welcome remarks to open the discussion. Mr. Miliband’s keynote address will be followed by a Q&A moderated by Jon B. Alterman, Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director of the Middle East Program.
Speakers:
David Miliband: President and CEO, International Rescue Committee
Jon B. Alterman: Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security; Director of the Middle East Program
Jacob Kurtzer: Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda
- Leveraging a Moment of Change: Pathways to a Sustainable U.S.-Pakistan Relationship | March 3, 2020 | 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The relationship between Pakistan and the United States has never been easy or stable, and in recent years has come under increasing strain. Yet both countries have a vital stake in the maintenance of a working relationship. Several factors have complicated prospects for bilateral cooperation in the past, leading to a growing strategic divergence in how both countries view one another, and their interests vis-a-vis other regional players. Perhaps the biggest shortcoming in the Pakistan-US relationship has been that both sides have tried to address the issues between them without common frames of reference, resulting in differences of perceptions and policies.
An expert group of academics, policy analysts, and retired government officials have recently convened at the Middle East institute to study the Pakistan-US relationship. The product of their discussions is a paper that explores a range of ideas and concrete proposals designed to move the relationship in a positive and stable direction.
Speakers:
Syed Mohammad Ali: Adjunct professor, Georgetown and Johns Hopkins
Ambassador (ret.) Gerald M. Feierstein: Senior Vice President, MEI
Ambassador Ali Jehangir Siddiqui: Pakistani Ambassador at Large for Foreign Investment
Marvin G. Weinbaum: Director of Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, MEI
- Crash Landing into Freedom: The Stories of Former North Korean Soldiers| March 4, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 1:30 PM | Hudson Institute | Register Here
Join Hudson Institute for an event with two former North Korean soldiers as they discuss their escapes from the hermit kingdom. U.S. Representative Ted Yoho will present keynote remarks on the need for greater freedom across Asia.
Weeks before critical diplomatic talks between the Trump administration and North Korea commenced, OH Cheong Seong successfully attempted a daring escape within the heavily guarded demilitarized zone. Under gunfire, Seong, a driver in a North Korean military police unit, drove a truck to the border and crossed by foot into South Korea. For the first time in public in the United States, he will discuss his escape and the factors that compelled him to flee.
LEE Unggil, a former solider in North Korea’s 11th Corps Special Forces who escaped while completing university studies, will explain the plight of North Korean soldiers and the motivations for those seeking freedom.
Panelists will give insight into what life is like inside the country and describe why so many North Koreans, if given the choice, would choose freedom.
Speakers:
Dr. Patrick M. Cronin: Asia-Pacific Security Chair, Hudson Institute
Colonel Steve Lee, U.S. Army (Ret.): Senior Vice President, Korea Defense Veterans Associations
OH Cheong Song: Former Driver in the North Korean Panmunjom Military Police Unit of the Operations Bureau
LEE Unggil: Former Member of the North Korean People’s Army 11th Corps Special Forces and Member of the North Korean People’s Liberation Front
Congressman Ted Yoho: U.S. Representative, Florida’s 3rd District, House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and Nonproliferation
- The Iran Crisis and American Energy Security| March 4, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM | CATO Institute | Register Here
On January 8, President Trump addressed the nation following an Iranian missile attack on U.S. positions in Iraq. Buried in his speech was a fascinating aside. The president argued that:
“…America has achieved energy independence … these historic accomplishments changed our strategic priorities … we are now the number-one producer of oil and natural gas anywhere in the world. We are independent and we do not need Middle East oil.”
Yet the Trump administration’s own policies in the region contradict his statement. Since 2016, the United States has doubled down on its military presence in the Middle East, adding more than 14,000 troops to a region already full of U.S. bases. And the Trump administration has pursued a maximum-pressure campaign against Iran that uses oil-focused sanctions in an attempt to weaken Iran’s regional influence and perhaps even topple the regime.
The Iran crisis thus highlights the changing relationship between U.S. foreign policy and global oil markets. If — as the president suggests — the United States is indeed energy independent, why have our strategic priorities not changed? Why do we remain overcommitted to the Middle East? And what can sanctions on Iran tell us about the increasing weaponization of global markets by U.S. policymakers?
Speakers:
Rosemary Kelanic: Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Notre Dame
Ellan Wald: President, Transversal Consulting
Joshua Rovner: Associate Professor, School of International Service, American University
Emma Ashford: Research Fellow in Defense and Foreign Policy Studies, CATO Institute
- Why Should the US Care about Ukraine | March 4, 2020 | 2:30 PM | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Throughout the recent impeachment hearings, witness after witness claimed that support for Ukraine is obviously in US national interests, without clearly explaining why. In response, on December 22, 2019, The National Interest published an article by George Beebe in which he compared current US policy toward Ukraine to the “groupthink” that led to disastrous US policies in Vietnam. Ambassador John Herbst responded to Beebe, arguing that the United States has vital strategic interests in maintaining a strong partnership with Ukraine.
For the first time, Ambassador John Herbst and Dr. Alina Polyakova, President and CEO, Center for European Policy Analysis, face off against George Beebe, Vice President and Director of Studies, Center for National Interest, and Dr. Will Ruger, Vice President, Research and Policy, Charles Koch Institute and Vice President for Research, Charles Koch Foundation, in a debate. Melinda Haring, Deputy Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council and Jacob Heilbrunn, Editor, The National Interest, will co-moderate the discussion.
Speakers:
Ambassador John E. Herbst: Former US Ambassador to Ukraine; Director of Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
Dr. Alina Polyakova: President and CEO, Center for European Policy Analysis
George Beebe: Vice President ad Director of Studies, Center for National Interest
Dr. Will Ruger: Vice President, Research and Policy, Charles Koch Institute
- The Outlook on US-China Relations| March 4, 2020 | 4:30 PM – 6:00 PM | Johns Hopkins University SAIS | Register Here
This panel discussion will examine American policy, trade, Taiwan, and other key factors affecting the US-China relations.
Speakers:
Ambassador J. Stapleton Roy: Former U.S. Ambassador to China (1991-1995), USCPF Board Member
Ambassador Craig Allen: President, US-China Business Council, Former U.S. Ambassador to Brunei (2014-2018)
Robert Sutter: Professor of Practice of International Affairs, Elliott School, GWU
David J. Keegan: Former Deputy Director of the American Institute in Taiwan. Former Director, Office of Taiwan Policy, Bureau of Eastern Asian and Pacific Affairs
- US-Brazil Economic Relations: The Path to A Trade Agreement | March 5, 2020 | 9:30 AM -12:00 PM| Atlantic Council | Register Here
The United States and Brazil have long been critical commercial partners. Now, as the United States and Brazil double down on delivering on a stronger bilateral agenda, the moment is ripe to help guide discussions on practical next steps.
What actions can Brazil and the US pursue in the short term to achieve deeper collaboration? How will those pave the way for greater growth and prosperity in both countries?
The event will also mark the launch of the report “US-Brazil Trade and FDI: Enhancing the Bilateral Economic Relationship,” authored by Ken Hyatt and Lisa Schineller on the US side and Abrão Neto and Daniel Godinho on the Brazil side.
Speakers:
The Hon. Darin Lahood: US Representative (R-IL), US Congress
Sergio Segovia: President, Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency, ApexBrasil
Nestor Forster: Appointed Ambassador of Brazil to the US
Joe Semsar: Acting Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade, International Trade Administration, US Department of Commerce
Pedro Miguel da Costa e Silva: Secretary of Bilateral and Regional Negotiations in the Americas, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Brazil
Maria Cameron: Deputy Director, Office of Latin America and the Caribbean, International Trade Administration, US Department of Commerce
Kevin O’Reilly: Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs, US Department of State
Lisa Schroeter: Global Director of Trade & Investment Policy, Dow Chemical Company
Lisa Schineller: Managing Director, Latin American Sovereign Ratings, S&P Global Ratings
Abrão Neto: Executive Vice President, AmCham Brasil; Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council; Former Secretary of Foreign Trade, Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
Kenneth Hyatt: Senior Advisor, Albright Stonebridge Group; Former Acting Under Secretary and Deputy Under Secretary for International Trade, US Department of Commerce
Jason Marczak: Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
Roberta Braga: Associate Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
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Stevenson’s army, December 20
– NYT has the tick tock on how Pelosi and Lighthizer got to Yes on the USMCA trade deal with labor support.
– WaPo shows sequence of Trump’s belief in Ukraine interference in 2016. Former Trump officials link it to Putin’s influence.
– There’s still hope: the special House committee on modernization urges specific reforms. There’s their release.
BTW: both Houses have adjourned until January.
– India cracks down with detentions and internet suspension.
– A Tufts prof says cybersecurity experts are being driven out of government.
– One of the most significant unreported [other than FT] stories is this: China is set to open enough new coal-fired plants to equal Europe’s current capacity.
PS: SecState Pompeo has lunch scheduled today with Trump. Will he finally announce his plan to return to Kansas and run for Senate?
And a supplement:
I found several more items worthy of your weekend time.
– Ward Just has died. He was an outstanding WaPo reporter from Vietnam until being wounded. He then turned to fiction, and wrote some of the most realistic Washington novels I’ve ever read. [Only Thomas Mallon comes close.] His political characters are true and complex.
– The Vietnam draft lottery spawned decades of valuable scientific research because it produced truly random samples for later study. Some of the vet/nonvet results are deeply troubling. [FYI, I lucked out: my birthday was 312 in the lottery.]
-CFR has its latest report on what to worry about in 2020. [We’ll read this in the spring course.]
– Reuters says Saudi oil fields attack came from the north, thus likely Iran.
– Atlantic Council has a good new report urging “managed competition” with China, with justifiable heavy emphasis on economic issues like R&D and trade.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Today is a rainy day
This tidbit from the Washington Post about the weekend attack on Saudi oil facilities is both telling and appalling:
U.S. officials are working under the assumption that the strikes did not emanate from Yemen and do not believe they were launched from Iraq, either…
While I am open to believing that the attacks came from Iran once evidence to that effect is published and thoroughly analyzed, there should be no assumptions in the investigation at this early stage, especially as Yemen’s Houthis have claimed responsibility. Nor should a US response be up to the Saudis, as President Trump suggested in a foolish “locked and loaded” tweet in which he said he was waiting to take military action for the Saudi assessment of responsibility.
Certainly the attack is consistent with what the Iranians have said they would do: respond to US sanctions by interfering with global energy supplies. Most of us, including me, believed this referred to stopping shipping through the strait of Hormuz, but that is just because we lack imagination. Taking down half of Saudi production capacity with a few missiles is much more clever: it doesn’t bring Iran directly into conflict with the US or block a passageway that Tehran uses as much as its Gulf neighbors. It is entirely possible that Iran, perhaps acting through the Houthis, was responsible.
But there is a long history of American wars starting or escalating with blame that was mis-assigned, too often intentionally:
- the explosion of the Maine that precipitated the Spanish-American war,
- the Gulf of Tonkin attack on the US Navy and the escalation of the Vietnam war,
- the claim that Saddam Hussein was developing nuclear weapons that led the US into a decade of disastrous engagement in Iraq.
Especially with a president facing the threat of impeachment at home and with few friends abroad, we need to be exigent about assignment of responsibility.
We also need to ask what will happen after an attack on Iran. Will the US be better off, or will the Islamic Republic gain? Its road to nuclear weapons is now short, less than a year, due to Trump’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Do we really want to risk pushing Tehran to a crash nuclear weapons program with a calibrated attack? What kind of military intervention would be required to prevent that course of action?
Regardless of who initiated the attack on Saudi Arabia, Washington should also be asking how it was allowed to happen. Is it possible that the hundreds of billions of dollars in military equipment the US has sold to Saudi Arabia is incapable of preventing such an attack? Or were the Saudis asleep at the switch? Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is, among many other things, Minister of Defense. We know however how reluctant Trump is to assign responsibility for any failures to him.
Fortunately, the US has time to respond: if oil prices spike, I trust we’ll draw down on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which will limit the spike and provide time to evaluate and repair the damage in Saudi Arabia. Those who have advocated selling oil from the SPR at low prices should note: best to save it for a rainy day. That’s today.
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Declining is the right answer
The Middle East is one of the few foreign policy areas other than climate change and trade that will get many electrons during the upcoming election year. Discord will dominate the discourse: President Obama is insufficiently resolute, he needs to stand up more against {you fill in the blank}, we should or should not intervene {here} or {there}. We should support our allies {more} or {less}, we {should} or {should not} condition aid on human rights concerns, and we should {defeat}, {deter} or {contain} one terrorist group or another.
You wouldn’t know that there is wide area of agreement among Americans and their political leaders on what US goals in the Middle East should be. Here they are, more or less in order of their salience to national security:
- Nuclear non-proliferation: no (more) nuclear weapons states in the greater Middle East (which stretches more or less from Mauritania to Pakistan).
- Free flow of energy: oil and gas should flow unimpeded from the Middle East to world markets.
- Counterterrorism: extremist groups in the region should not be able to mount a mass casualty attack against the United States or Europe.
- Support for allies: America’s regional allies should wield the means necessary to confront internal and external adversaries successfully.
- Spreading democratic values: all other things being equal (which they aren’t on most days), Washington prefers to deal with inclusive governments that reflect the will of their people.
If there is agreement on these goals, why so much dissonance on the Middle East?
It comes from two things: different priorities accorded to these generally agreed goals, and differences over the means to achieve them.
Priorities are important. The Obama Administration arguably has prioritized nuclear non-proliferation over support for allies, reaching an agreement with Iran that if implemented fully would prevent it from getting nuclear weapons for a decade or more but giving it relief from sanctions that strengthens Tehran’s position in the region and enables it to confront American allies. Washington would prefer a democratic government in Egypt, but has prioritized support for President Sisi and his fight against what he defines as terrorism. Some argue Washington’s focus on anti-American terrorism is leading us to over-emphasize security cooperation and under-emphasize political reform.
So too are the means to achieve these goals. President Obama has preferred killing terrorists with drones to risking American lives in efforts to build up states in the region capable of confronting the terrorist threat with law enforcement means. He has also followed a long American tradition of keeping oil flowing through Hormuz principally through military means rather than encouraging oil producers to build pipelines to carry oil around the strait. Some still think threatening the use of force is necessary to ensure compliance with the Iran nuclear deal.
So yes, there is discord, but the discord is about priorities and means, not about goals. Basically, all American politicians are singing the same lyrics, even when they strike up different tunes or use an orchestra instead of a rock band.
The bigger question is whether these goals in the Middle East are increasing or declining in importance. Let’s look at the goals one by one.
With the Iran nuclear deal, we have at least postponed the major non-proliferation issue in the Middle East. There are still others: will Saudi Arabia, Egypt or Turkey now be tempted to at least match Iran in nuclear technology? Will Pakistan deploy battlefield nuclear weapons as a deterrent against India? Will Israel’s nuclear weapons generate increasing concern in the region? But on the whole I think we can say the issues are less urgent and less compelling, now that the Iran question is settled for a decade or more.
The US is now far less dependent on Middle East oil than it has been for decades, but energy experts will quickly counter that oil prices are determined in a global market, so a serious supply disruption would be felt economically in the US even if we imported no oil at all. Still, with prices around $50/barrel and Iran soon to regain and eventually expand its export position, there is little to worry about for the moment. The people who should worry most are in China, Japan and elsewhere in Asia, which is increasingly dependent on Middle East oil and gas exports. They should bear the burden of protecting energy flows.
Little can be said about the terrorist threat. An attack can always sneak through. 9/11 was less a probability than a “black swan”–a rare and unpredictable deviation from the norm. Ever since, the number of Americans killed by international terrorists has been less than the number killed by (non-Muslim) domestic ones (even if we don’t always call them terrorists). With Al Qaeda Central much diminished and the Islamic State preoccupied with taking and defending territory in Syria and Iraq, not to mention heightening of counterterrorist defenses worldwide, it is harder to plan and execute a major terrorist plot than it was 15 years ago.
Support for allies is arguably more important in the aftermath of the Iran nuclear deal, but the means we have chosen to achieve it are such that it involves little in-depth engagement with the Middle East. We ship truly gargantuan quantities of advanced armaments to the Gulf and Israel. We have also supported, despite a lot of doubts, the Saudi war against the Houthis in Yemen. The main purpose of our support for allies is to reduce the need for direct American engagement, not increase it.
Apart from guys like me and my friends in the thinktank community who make a living (or not) thinking and writing about the Middle East, there is little support left in the US for spreading democratic values in the region. The positive results of the Arab uprisings are so paltry–a fragile transition in Tunisia and some reforms in Morocco and Jordan–that most Americans (and certainly the presidential candidates) wouldn’t want to waste much taxpayer money or electoral breath on what they regard as a quixotic pursuit.
So declining is the right answer, even without considering the rising threats to the US from China in the Pacific and from Russia in Europe. Those of us who still worry about the Middle East need to figure out more economical and effective ways to achieve the goals that Americans agree on. More about that in future posts.
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