Tag: Iraq
It really is current, but still history
I agreed some time in September to do a piece for Current History on the government formation process in Iraq. Completed a couple of weeks ago, it is now of course out of date, but some may still be interested. The process has been prolonged, rough and tumble, but still largely nonviolent and mostly rule-bound. Let’s hope Maliki keeps it that way.
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Which libretto is Maliki singing from?
Last we heard in the eight-month saga of forming a government, the Iraqi Parliament had chosen a Speaker and re-elected President Jalal Talabani, who in turn gave Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki 30 days in which to form a new government.
This deal left Iyad Allawi, the secular Shia leader of a largely Sunni coalition, with the dregs: chairmanship of a “national council for higher strategic policies,” “un-de-Ba’athification” of three of his leading Sunni lights and still unspecified ministries for Iraqiyya followers. Now it is unclear whether Allawi will get even that much, according to Marina Ottaway and Danial Kaysi of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. There is little in writing, and Maliki seems inclined to forget what was promised and continue his effort to centralize power. Meanwhile, Allawi has reportedly winged off to London, presumably to be lured back only if Maliki sings him an enchanting melody. That isn’t likely.
Bottom line: the Americans and Iranians have both ended up supporting Maliki, to the detriment of Sunnis and secularists. This is not likely to reduce Iraqi paranoia, which holds that everything that has happened since 2003 is a plot by Washington and Tehran, working together.
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Still getting ready to sing
Anti-Kurd hardliner Osama al Nujaifi has been elected Speaker of the parliament in Baghdad, but then he and the rest of Iraqqiya walked out, apparently in protest against the treatment of some of its former Baathist members. Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani has been voted back into the Presidency, which however has lost the veto and is now almost entirely ceremonial. Its one substantial function is to designate a prime minister; Talabani almost immediately named Maliki, who gets a month to put together a government.
Allawi and Maliki reportedly sat together in parliament as a sign of solidarity, which won’t mean much in light of the subsequent walk-out.
Still no naming of ministers, or other devilish details like precisely what Allawi has been promised on the national security front.
No need yet to take your seats for the finale. The scruffily bearded guy won’t sing until the ministerial nominations are ready, which could still be weeks away.
Iraqi parliament convenes in 1st steps to new govt – Yahoo! News.
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The scruffily bearded guy gets ready to sing
Maliki and Allawi have at long last apparently cut a deal putting Allawi’s people in as speaker of the parliament and as head of a committee overseeing national security (but is this the old, ineffective one, or a new one?). This is the deal Reidar Visser proposed several days ago (Iraq leaders reach deWhy Iraqiyya Should Accept the Speakership « Iraq and Gulf Analysis). Kudos to Reidar!
Hard to believe this saga is at an end until we see a list of ministers approved in parliament. Is Moqtada al Sadr in or not? In where? What is the overall Iraqiyya role? What is Allawi’s specific role? Lots of devilish details before it is possible to judge what this all means.
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Walt v. Bush
A healthy reminder of where we’ve been, but then it is hard to credit Walt’s remark that Obama’s “foreign policy…looks surprising[ly] like George W. Bush’s.”
Delusion Points – By Stephen M. Walt | Foreign Policy.
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Kurdish unity frays
The reform-minded Gorran (Change) movement has defected with its eight seats from the broader 58-seat Kurdish coalition in the Iraqi parliament. This will weaken the Kurdish position only marginally for the moment, but it introduces one more moving part in an already complicated government formation process.
Not clear yet whether Gorran is moving towards Allawi or towards Maliki–the defection was caused by controversy over Kurdistan’s electoral law, not over who should be prime minister in Baghdad. But I’ll bet the Americans are pushing hard for Change to move towards Allawi.
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