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Kurds leaning towards Maliki

The Baghdad rumor mill today is putting the Kurds in Maliki’s camp, which would put him over the top arithmetically.  He would still need to harvest a few Iraqiyya votes for appearances’ sake, but that shouldn’t be impossible, and it might not take long.

This is not good news for Washington, which preferred a government built on a Maliki/Allawi foundation.  The one that seems to be emerging is built on a Maliki/Sadrist foundation, which is likely to be friendlier to Tehran and less able to keep disgruntled Sunnis inside the political process.

But it’s not over until the scruffily bearded guy sings.  Is this just one more turn in the eight-month process, or is this the finale?

Not so upbeat over on L street

Our friends at the Washington Institute are certainly sounding worried about Iraq:  http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3262

After the Americans, what?

ICG is feeling more positive about the capabilities of the Iraq security forces, but not about their cohesion.  Gotta wonder where that leads!

via Loose Ends: Iraq’s Security Forces Between U.S. Drawdown and Withdrawal – International Crisis Group.