Tag: Iraq
Stevenson’s army, March 29
– WSJ says Russian economy is weakening-
– Harvard prof lists options for enlarging the House.
-Tom Friedman says Netanyahu can’t be trusted
-Navy prof summarizes the role of intelligence in the Iraq war.
–McConnell opposes Iraq AUMF repeal.
– WaPo tells about the SAIS student accused as a Russian spy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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A Biden Middle East doctrine full of holes
Brett McGurk, the senior White House Middle East official, last month set out a “Biden doctrine” for the region. It is based on partnerships, deterrence, diplomacy, integration, and values. Best you read it yourself. It is blessedly short and clear.
Jonathan Lord, formerly Iraq director at the Defense Department and now at the Center for New American Security, has taken Brett to task for ignoring both Syria and Iraq, where the US still has a few thousand troops doing counter-terrorism work. In fact, McGurk never mentions terrorism, the threat on which he worked for many years.
What else isn’t mentioned
Those are glaring omissions, but not the only ones. As Lord notes, McGurk says little about economic issues. He omits oil entirely, though he mentions freedom of navigation. It is hard to imagine the US would be concerned with the Middle East if there were no oil there. He fails to note the growing geopolitical competition in the region with Russia and China. Brett ignores the more than 18,000 deployed US troops in Turkey, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.
He forgets the Palestinians entirely, as well as the Kurds, with whom the US is allied in Syria. There is not a word about the disastrous state of Lebanon and Hizbollah’s role there, though he boasts about Beirut’s maritime boundary agreement with Israel. He ignores the plight of women in much of the region.
McGurk also fails to note the contradictions among his five principles. He acknowledges the main tension between values and partnerships with autocrats. But he ignores the current and growing tensions on human rights issues with Israel, as well as the more traditional ones with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. What do the five principles tell us to do about the UAE and possibly Saudi Arabia reestablishing diplomatic relations with Syria? There are also problems reconciling diplomacy and deterrence. The US has essentially abandoned the former for the latter when it comes to Iran. And there are obstacles to integration arising from human rights, like the Saudi refusal to recognize Israel without real progress on creating a Palestinian state.
Iran, Iran, Iran
Brett is clever. I imagine he would reply to this critique that it is about time we had a Middle East policy focused on partnerships rather than oil, the Palestinians, or competition with Russia and China. He might also claim that it is obvious US troops are in the Middle East for deterrence purposes, against both terrorism and Iran. He would be correct to say that any discussion of economic and social issues requires more time and space than this short presentation allowed.
But there is no excuse for many of the other omissions. They reflect prioritization, not ignorance. Brett knows the the current Israeli government is a threat to its already ethnically-limited democracy. He knows Iraq is drifting away from the US, Syria is a drug-exporting nightmare, and Lebanon is in a downward spiral. The Biden Administration has simply decided to ignore these developments and focus on whatever will help the US confront Iran. That is the real purpose of four of the five principles: partnerships, deterrence, diplomacy, and integration. Values play a distinctly secondary role.
If that’s what it’s about, say so
Iran’s role in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and with Hizbollah more than justifies priority treatment. Moreover Tehran’s increasingly successful nuclear program could ignite an arms race in the region. Turkey’s President Erdogan and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have explicitly stated they will not stand idly by if Iran gets nuclear weapons. That could put the US in an awkward situation, as it would increase the need for security guarantees and make criticism of human rights behavior impossible.
If it’s all about Iran, say so. Don’t hide it behind five nice principles. Then we can debate whether you’ve got the priorities right.
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Stevenson’s army, March 23
I am back from a week in Doha when I wasn’t posting, and Charlie is back from a few days away:
Back at my desktop and partway through the accumulated newspapers, here are some links.
– Stimson has a bunch of reports. I especially liked the “Chimera of Technological Superiority” paper.
– Lots of Iraq reflections [today is the 20th anniversary of the start of the US war]. Reporter John Walcott was right. As was Jim Fallows.
– A Marine calls for a more family friendly military personnel system
– SAIS prof Ed Joseph sees a Kosovo deal.
– US News said US intell helped India against China.
– Fred Kaplan assesses the Xi-Putin summit. WaPo notes the absence of a pipeline deal.
– Two views on US aid to Ukraine: surprising success or much too slow.
– NYT analyzes DeSantis foreign policy.
– Max Boot sees return to 1930s GOP foreign policy.
– RollCall notes Biden’s high success rate with Congress.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 19 and 20
February 20:
– US warns China about aid to Russia.
– FT notes lack of support for Ukraine in global south.
– US avoided UN fight over Israel/Palestine.
February 19:
– FT has two valuable articles. SAIS prof Mary Sarotte on Putin’s distortions of history and report on planned secret US talks with Taiwan [now exposed]
– Lots on Wagner group — from Politico, from WaPo
– CNAS has a new tracker on Russia developments
– AP poll finds reduced GOP support for Ukraine
– NYT notes new military competition in near space.
– WSJ said some DIA knew of UAPs in Trump admin, but didn’t raise alarms.
– Politico on Germany’s “shadow foreign minister”
– Eli Lake defends Iraq war
– Intercept has warnings for whistleblowers
– FWIW, revelations about Fox News.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 31
– WaPo says US likely to get new Philippine bases.
– NYT describes WH procedures for classified materials.
– In FT, Gideon Rachman says culture wars are now part of foreign policy
– FP notes Biden donors who have become ambassadors.
SAIS grad John Gans has a review of Chris Whipple’s book on the Biden administration in NYT Book review. I’m a little less enthusiastic because it’s mostly interview quotes with officials with little new information. Whipple did succeed in getting many attributed quotes compared to a Bob Woodward book. So, yes, read Whipple.
Avoid, however, the new Mike Pompeo memoir, an angry, nasty book, full of venom even for most of his Trump administration colleagues, but not the former president. He brags about firing CIA analysts who said good things about JCPOA; he calls State the “worst platoon,” meaning it needed substantial reforms; he calls FSO’s “overwhelmingly hard left;” he savages Nikki Haley and John Bolton; he says Jim Mattis “was not a sound fit” for the administration and criticizes his views on Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, and China; he expresses gratitude that Hillary Clinton was willing to talk to him about the SecState job, but then blasts her for being “the center of the Russia Hoax.” Turn these pages only with protective gloves. Burn after reading.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 25
– Budget hawk think tank CRFB, whose online game we use in class to help you understand what’s in the US budget, has a new report on balancing the budget. NYT’s Paul Krugman says we don’t have to worry so much about the debt.
– FP says Iraq’s leader is tilting toward US.
– RollCall says the number of competitive House seats has fluctuated within a range, not shrunk dramatically.
– AP has historical background on presidential handling of classified records.
IISS has analysis of Japan’s new defense strategy.
– Politico notes the dubiousness of Santos’ $199 expenses.
Charlie also posted this yesterday:
Several news reports, including this first one by WSJ, say Ukraine will be receiving armored vehicles that many call “tanks.” Stars & Stripes notes that many dispute what a tank is. As many of you probably know, Churchill was the spearhead for tank development and gave it that name as a secrecy measure.
-Big corruption scandal in Ukraine.
-It sure looks as if Turkey will block Sweden’s admission to NATO.
-US will greatly expand artillery production.
– WaPo reviews SecState Pompeo’s new book, calling it “savage.”
– Ron Brownstein expects more redistricting to help GOP in next 2 years.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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