Tag: Russia
Winning the war with equanimity
As I prepare to leave Kyiv Wednesday, here are notes on issues not covered in my earlier posts. Or where I would like to amend previous statements. The posts in question are First Impressions, Culture, Religion and Education, Ukraine’s Strengths and Weaknesses, and Ukraine’s Opportunities and Threats.
Culinary delights
Kyiv’s restaurants are really good and cheap for those who live on dollars or euros. I’ve enjoyed not only traditional and modernized Ukrainian but also Georgian, Crimean, Turkish, and Korean cuisine. I’ve even had a good American breakfast. French and Belgian are available, but neither really entices me these days. Italian we reserve for home and Italy. I haven’t tried the Mexican, but it’s here.
Street food is good too. Sandwiches are of all sorts, often on decent croissants or other good bread. Abundant cakes, strudels, and sweets are available everywhere. Coffee and tea are omnipresent, not only in restaurants and coffee bars but also at street kiosks. The ice cream is no great shakes, but McDonalds suffices in a pinch.
Street people, store fronts, and the economy
I am told beggars and homeless people are more common away from the Kyiv city center, where I am lodged. But my range is pretty wide–three miles in any direction is more or less my limit. I’ve done that in virtually all directions and found little obvious destitution. I won’t say it isn’t there. Just that it isn’t as evident as in DC.
Empty storefronts are also not as common as in DC, which has not recovered fully from the epidemic closures. While everyone here is hoping for an improved economy once the war ends, it doesn’t seem in terrible shape. GDP contracted slightly in the fourth quarter of 2024 but projections until 2028 are for 5% growth. The main problem is lack of major investment, which is understandable in wartime. Ukraine will need to do a lot to attract foreign direct investment once the war ends.
Fashion
Most Ukrainians dress for comfort, not success, as do most Americans. If anything, street clothes in Kyiv are even more informal than in DC: sneakers, jeans, sweatpants prevail. Definitely not smart casual. Professors are mostly in that category as well. But in the evenings women sometimes appear in outfits that remind me of the strange fashions of Communist Eastern Europe. At the conference I attended, most of the men were accoutered in ties and suits and women in the equivalents. I was the odd one out there.
Equanimity
I continue to be impressed with Ukrainian equanimity. I still haven’t seen two Ukrainians arguing, but a few speeding motorcycles and non-muffled cars suggest youthful frustrations. Many restaurants allow you to pay your bill online without interacting with a waiter. That suggests a great deal of mutual confidence. Everyplace takes contactless credit cards, even for very small charges. No one gets annoyed with an American who can’t speak Ukrainian or Russian. We manage to communicate without too much fuss. Cell phones help.
Synagogue
Though not very devout, I went to Shabbat services at the only Reform synagogue Friday night. It was a modest affair with perhaps 20 participants, half a dozen of them on Zoom. The main rabbi was in Israel. The substitute rabbi spoke in Russian from Germany. One of the younger participants was assigned to try to help me, but her English was limited. So I joined the Hebrew when I knew the tunes, suffered rudimentary post-service conversations, and left without feeling much renewed. But at least I can testify that Reform has its place and adherents in Kyiv.
The trip home
I’ll be 12 hours on a jiggly train to Poland Wednesday. Then a 1.5 hour wait and another 2.5 hours on a smoother train to get to Warsaw late in the evening. Only to get up again well before dawn to fly to Munich and DC. So more or less 48 hours of travel.
I can’t say I am looking forward to the trip. But the experience here has been super. Seeing people face war and destruction with determination and commitment is inspiring. And I’m pleased to see how they go about their business with equanimity. I’ve heard some angry denunciations of Russian behavior, especially in stealing children from occupied areas of Ukraine. But nothing that went much beyond what the facts would support. Kyivans seem more concerned to maintain their own composure than to tangle rhetorically with Moscow. They want to win the war, not destroy Russia. The inverse cannot be said in Moscow.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Ukraine’s opportunities and threats
Based on proceedings at the Kyiv Security Forum, I’ve already tried to summarize Ukraine’s strengths and weaknesses. Here are some opportunities and threats.
Opportunities still abound
The West still has opportunities to improve Ukraine’s position vis-a-vis Russia, which responds only to actions (not just words):
- Strengthen sanctions, including secondary sanctions against firms doing business with Russia.
- Use Russian assets frozen in Europe and the US to fund Ukrainian defense.
- End European dependence on Russian natural gas, as pledged, by 2027.
- Integrate Ukrainian and European industry to produce more of what Ukraine needs.
- Raise defense spending sharply.
- Exploit any ceasefire to help Ukraine gain against Russia.
- Provide military assets to Ukraine on lend/lease terms.
- Improve Alliance interoperability.
- Deepen relations with Ukraine through the NATO/Ukraine Council.
- Encourage Russian brain drain to the West.
Carpe diem
Europeans, participants in the Forum thought, need to seize the day. Their political will has to match Ukrainian courage. Saturday’s visit of Polish Prime Minister Tusk, French President Macron, UK Prime Minister Starmer, and German Chancellor Merz started that process. The Europeans joined with Ukrainian President Zelensky in issuing an ultimatum for a 30-day ceasefire to begin Monday. So far, Russia has not accepted the proposition.
Having reappropriated the language of peace, the Europeans need now to reach out to the rest of the world. They also need to convince their own right-wing nationalists that Kyiv, not Moscow, merits support. Europe’s position should stay values-based but firm.
The Europeans also need to bring President Trump on board. The Congress is already restraining his worst pro-Putin impulses. The Euros should offer to acquire unique US capabilities and even to pay for deployment of US troops. They should also underline to Trump that peace through strength requires the US to do more for Ukraine. MAGA cannot make America great if it abandons Kyiv.
Russia’s future
The war with Ukraine has degraded the Russian military, compromised its intelligence, and devastated its economy and society. Even while advancing slowly on the ground, Moscow is losing the war. It has achieved none of its objectives. The West has not recognized its annexations or ruled out NATO membership and security guarantees for Ukraine.
While by no means guaranteed, defeat will open the possibility of a democratic transition in Russia. Putin will in any case eventually be gone. Moscow will then have to reconsider its relations with the West. We can hope the Russians will opt for improvement.
The threats are still real
Putin has gone too far to compromise now. His overall objectives have not changed. He wants to eliminate an independent Ukraine. A successful democracy on Russia’s borders is a threat to his regime. If Ukraine loses, Moldova and Lithuania will be next. Appeasement will encourage further aggression. Putin isn’t an idiot or crazy but rather a determined bully. He wants to impose his own rules to make the world safe for kleptocratic autocracy. The closing of Voice of America and Radio Free Europe are precisely what he wants.
NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense guarantee is the only thing that will stop him. But President Trump’s attitude toward NATO, including threats against Greenland, make Europeans doubt that he will do what it requires.
Even if the war ends, the fighting will go on through hybrid warfare. Russia and China will remain allied. Trump’s efforts to separate them will fail. The US should not promote a division of labor that assigns Europe to the Europeans and Asia to the Americans. That would divide the Alliance and limit Europe’s support in Asia.
Putin has effectively used nuclear blackmail to limit US aid to Ukraine. He has also promoted grievances in the West that threaten democratic governance and aim to make autocracy look more attractive. He will continue these successful efforts.
On balance
While the mists of war are still hiding the outcome, Ukraine is far from defeat. Even if Russia could occupy the whole country, which it can’t, many Ukrainians would resist. Putin’s best bet now is a Georgia-style political takeover of Ukraine by forces friendly to Moscow. But that gets less possible with every day of continued conflict. Killing people because of their identity strengthens that identity. Ukrainians are feeling more Ukrainian, not less, due to the war.
Russia is at the point of diminishing returns. Western appeasement would be a serious mistake. Ending Putin’s threat to Ukraine will prevent war elsewhere. That is a worthy cause.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Ukraine’s strengths and weaknesses
The Kyiv Security Forum last Thursday and Friday was a crash course in Ukraine’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Here I’ll do the strengths and weaknesses. I’ve already reported on other aspects of my experience here in Kyiv.
Unity and commitment are gaining advantage
Ukrainians, according to Rasumkov Centre surveys, believe in victory. But my conversations suggest that there are some nuances when it comes to defining victory. A minority are prepared to see the territories Russia occupies, especially Crimea, continue for now under Moscow’s rule. But even they would not accept recognition of Russian sovereignty, which would be a violation of Ukraine’s constitution. Trump was foolish to suggest it. Zelensky can’t do it.
Now that the minerals agreement has been signed, the tables are turning in Ukraine’s favor. Washington and Kyiv are more aligned. President Zelensky has reappropriated the language of peace and put the monkey on Putin’s back. He also learned how to manage President Trump. Better to say “yes, but let me suggest something” than to say simply “no.” The Russian economy is sinking. Europe is undergoing a strategic reawakening. And both Europe and the US are seeing the need to deter Russia’s territorial ambitions, which extend beyond Ukraine.
Ukraine as an asset, not a burden
Ukraine, rather than a burden to NATO, is becoming an asset. After independence, it reformed its intelligence services and refocused them on external threats. They have cooperated well with the West. Kyiv has the technology to attack deep inside Russia and the intelligence needed to use it. The Russian intelligence services still focus mainly on domestic repression. They are finding it difficult to plan and execute sabotage operations inside Ukraine. On the battlefield, Kyiv’s more innovative, higher quality weapons are still beating Russia’s advantages in quantity and manpower. Kyiv has also hit Russian proxies and forces in Libya, Sudan, and Syria.
Ukraine has good engineers who are innovating rapidly. Its designers, suppliers, and manufacturers are working closely together. They are bringing innovations to battle more rapidly than the Russians are adapting. The result is a mostly static front with little use of armor and air cover.
NATO last year provided $50 billion in military aid to Ukraine, equaling Kyiv’s own spending. The June NATO Summit in The Hague is an opportunity. The Europeans should make it clear to the US that they are taking on more burden. But still they need the US to supply some advanced weapons and security guarantees.
Disunity is the main weakness
The theme of the Kyiv Security Conference is “United Again.” That already tells you that disunity is an issue. The “again” refers to Allied success in World War II, which ended in Europe 80 years ago.
Within Europe, disunity comes in two forms. Right-wing nationalist governments in Slovakia and Hungary have tied themselves to Russia. And within many other countries right-wing political forces would like to do the same if they come to power. The Alternative for Germany and the National Rally in France are the two most important. This greatly complicates and limits European decision-making on Ukraine. No proposal at the conference received more applause from the participants than spending Russia’s frozen assets on Ukraine’s military needs. But that requires unanimity at least in the EU.
Divisions within the Alliance
Divisions within NATO are also important. President Trump is erratic. Europe is increasing its defense expenditures and is getting ready to deploy peacekeepers if negotiations succeed. But Trump could fail to provide needed assistance to Ukraine, or even betray it by returning to his pro-Putin stance. Despite some signs of a shift, US pressure on Moscow to negotiate is still minimal. The American negotiator, Witkoff, is unprepared for the task and lacks an serious team. Trump has given Putin far too many carrots. He still hopes to relieve sanctions on Russia and wean it from China, a fool’s errand.
Standardization within the Alliance is weakly implemented. While grenades are standardized in size, in practice the Alliance still produces 14 different ones. In both Europe and the US, military production capacity is inadequate. Neither has been willing to fund military production in Ukraine, which has excess capacity. With financing, it could produce twice as many drones as it does today. Europe has lots of soldiers, but few ready to deploy into conflict. Moscow knows this. It also knows the US wants to reduce its presence in Europe.
Russia won’t do what it says it will do
In thinking about a negotiated outcome to the war, one thought prevails among the Ukrainians, European, and Americans here. Whatever the strengths and weaknesses on the Ukrainian side, Moscow will not implement whatever it signs. The best that can be hoped for is a pause in the war. Conference participants believe Putin is serious about taking control of all of Ukraine. The question is whether Russia or Ukraine would gain more from an opportunity to rest and rearm. My sense is the Ukrainian military thinks Russia would gain more, since it has deeper resources and a bigger population. Some Ukrainian civilians think a pause would refresh political support for the war.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Failure and disgrace in 100 days
As they Trump Administration approaches its 100th day April 30, the failures are glaring.
Failures
The most obvious failures are in negotiations. Trump himself laid out the agenda. He wanted:
- The Canal back from Panama.
- To buy Greenland from Denmark.
- Canada as the 51st state.
- Gaza voluntarily emptied and redeveloped as a resort.
- The Ukraine war ended.
- A better nuclear deal with Iran.
- Trade deals that would “correct” bilateral imbalances.
None of this is happening. The first three items are fool’s errands hardly worth discussing. The four later ones are more serious propositions.
Even winning would be losing
The Gaza-a-Lago proposition was a green light for war crimes. The Israelis are trying to force Palestinians out of Gaza. They are failing so far, but they will no doubt persist. This is egregious even from a religious perspective: Biblical Jews did not live in Gaza. No religion, certainly not mine, can approve displacing two million people to please a real estate developer.
Trump is proposing to end the Ukraine war on terms favorable to Russia. Why is not clear, but Moscow would keep the territory it has taken, including Crimea. Kyiv would have to recognize Russia’s annexation of the peninsula. Ukraine would get no security guarantee from the US, which would gain privileged access to its minerals. This is a bad deal, one that that will not end the war, even if Kyiv and Moscow sign on. At best, it will pause the hostilities.
The better nuclear deal with Iran is a possibility. That’s because Trump is prepared to lift many if not all the sanctions. Biden refused to do that, because Washington imposed some of them for human rights violations. The Trump Administration doesn’t care about those. So a better nuclear deal for Trump means American endorsement of the Islamic Republic’s oppression. Not sure that is what Americans really want.
The Administration claims to be negotiating tariff deals with 90 countries. Unless they lower tariffs relative to the previous Administration, they will raise costs for American consumers. The most important of the negotiations is with China. That will end with higher tariffs both on Chinese imports to the US and on American exports to China. Yes, the US government will gain some revenue, though nowhere near as much as the Administration claims. And most of that revenue will come from Americans. Inflation will accelerate. Recession looms.
The disgraces
Trump supports Israeli war crimes in Gaza, Russian victory in Ukraine, endorsement of Islamic Republic human rights abuses, and trade deals that raise prices and slow growth for Americans. Add that to attacking American universities, arbitrary arrest, imprisonment, and deportation of immigrants, and canceling of vital scientific research.
The Administration is weakening the United States. That is the only thing at which it is succeeding in its disgraceful first 100 days.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
America made a giant mistake
The Signal chat is now the talk of DC. On it, Secretary of Defense Hegseth shared information that could have given an adversary opportunity to kill American service people. That’s all you really need to know. But it turns out that information came from an Israeli clandestine source, which compounds to damage. Signal is a commercial system not authorized for classified information. Hegseth denies it, to his discredit, but the operational information he shared was unquestionably classified.
Dumb and dumber
National Security Advisor Walz and Director of National Intelligence Gabbard compounded the sin. They lied to Congress about the contents of the chat, which has now been published by The Atlantic. Vice President Vance and President Trump claim they and their underlings did nothing wrong. These are stupid denials. Any lower-ranking official who did what Hegseth did would be courtmartialed or fired. The US Government would never again hire someone who did what he did. No one who did it would ever be hired by the US Government again. We are talking gross malfeasance here, not nuance. If he doesn’t resign, Hegseth should be fired.
Now Trump is trying to distract attention. He has announced 25% tariffs on cars. Tomorrow it will be something else. He is determined to create turmoil. It shifts the ground under his critics’ feet and prevents accountability. Almost no one has noticed Trump’s Executive Order on elections, which is intended to severely curtail voting by poor people and minorities. That’s a big win for him.
Dumbest
But the dumbest thing is the supposed ceasefire agreements in Ukraine. There Trump has promised Putin sanctions relief in exchange for an end to fighting in the Black Sea. That disadvantages the Ukrainians in two different ways. The Russians were no longer fighting in the Black Sea, as Ukrainian naval drones had chased their warships into port. Relieving them of financial sanctions is a big reward for nothing.
Trump has already given Moscow a bar on Ukrainian NATO membership and permission to hold on to occupied territory. Sanctions relief is a hat trick for Putin. He is laughing at Trump, who is playing the fool. I shouldn’t say playing. He is a fool.
The world already knows what Americans need to realize
This Administration is dumb and ill-intentioned. It is literally knocking on doors in Greenland looking for people who want to meet the Vice President and his wife. Everyone is saying a polite “no.” Denmarkers wouldn’t be so polite. In fact, it is now hard to imagine any European country that would be pleased with a high level visit from the US, other than Viktor Orban’s autocratic Hungary.
The situation isn’t much better in the Middle East. Only Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu would welcome Trump with open arms. Kurkiye’s President Erdogan might like a visit, but only because it would give him the chance to roll Trump again, as he has repeatedly done in the past. Even his friendship with the Saudis has cooled. No more sword dancing. Not to mention Canada, where Trump’s offensive behavior has infuriated a normally equilibrated citizenry.
It will take more time for Americans to fathom the mistake they have made. But buyers’ remorse will set in. Unfortunately, it will only be after tens of thousands have lost their jobs, many farmers have lost their farms, inflation has ravaged the country again, leading scientists have fled for greener pastures, untold numbers have lost their livelihood and lives, and the world has lost confidence in American leadership.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Might doesn’t make right, but it’s winning
The bad news comes from every direction. The Trump Administration is closing Social Security offices but requiring more people to apply to them in person for benefits. The government needs more revenue but the Internal Revenue Service is firing the people who audit tax returns. The National Institutes of Health, the National Science Foundation, and other funders of American science are canceling grants and contracts. The Administration deported unidentified people over the objections of a Federal court.
In my world of international affairs, the news is also bad. The Administration is closing the organizations that broadcast reasonably objective news into autocratic countries. RFE/RL, Al Hurra, VoA, and others are to cease operations completely. The President wants peace in Ukraine. But he wants to close one of America’s premier Ukraine-focused institutions, the US Institute of Peace. Israel wants peace but has broken the ceasefire in Gaza to kill hundreds more Palestinians. Putin wants peace but he stiffed Trump’s call for a 30-day ceasefire in a phone call today.
International broadcasting
I’ve done a lot of interviews for international broadcasting organizations, including those named above as well as Al Jazeera Arabic. I don’t do it to convince people that I am right. My objective is to expose listeners/viewers to a perspective they may not otherwise hear. In my experience, all these outlets–including Al Jazeera Arabic–are consistently professional and balanced. I am often on the air with people I don’t agree with. The questioning is well-informed and appropriate to what is going on in the world. Other moments or programs may be less professional, but I wouldn’t participate in those and the producers know it. I gave up on Russia Today and Iranian broadcasters because they weren’t balanced or professional.
The US Agency for Global Media had about $450 million to spend this year. That sounds like a lot of money. It is less than .06% of the non-defense budget of the United States. Firing all those people and closing the institutions is the equivalent of less than a rounding error. DOGE is saving nothing by ending international broadcasting. But it is weakening the messages the US sends to the rest of the world. Free discourse, which rarely favors might makes right, suffers. That is what Trump wants, not budgetary savings. No doubt the Administration will eventually decide it needs an international propaganda arm and will spend even more on that.
The United States Institute of Peace
USIP is even less of a rounding error, at something under $100 million per year. I worked there for 12 years, from 1998 to 2010. The Institute played a pivotal role in the Balkans, where it helped create the Inter-religious Council in Bosnia. It provided the fora in which Serbs and Albanians began to talk with each other after the 1999 NATO/Yugoslavia war. And for more than two decades it has helped to keep the peace between Sunni and Shia in Iraq. I could cite many more examples, but you get the point.
The problem for Trump is that USIP is a bipartisan organization that he does not fully control. So he fired all the nongovernmental board members. Then the remaining three Administration board members claim to have fired the USIP President. They are taking over the building and the institution, both of which are private. It sounds like expropriation without legal authority to me. Might is winning for now.
Israel in Gaza
The Israeli decision to restart massive attacks on Gaza came in response to Hamas’ failure to release hostages. That in turn was in response to Israel’s refusal to start talks on ending the war. Prime Minister Netanyahu is bucking public opinion in Israel, which favors hostage release in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. He fears an end to the Gaza war. That could bring accountability for intelligence and military failures that made the 2023 Hamas attack so deadly. President Trump has encouraged Netanyahu in pursuing this course. Israel appears to have succeeded in killing some prominent Hamas leaders, along with hundreds of civilians.
Hamas is in a corner. It has declining traction in the Palestinian population and a decreasing number of living hostages. Israel acknowledges no limits to the civilian damage it is prepared to do. It would prefer that they leave Gaza altogether. That approach has Trump’s wholehearted support, to clear the way for his Mar-al-Gaza resort proposal. So far, no decisive opposition has come from Europe or the Arab states. Might is winning. The Israeli, American Jewish, and Arab preference for the ceasefire and exchanges is losing.
Ukraine’s weakness
Gaza is tragic. Ukraine is grim. Trump holds Ukrainian President Zelensky hostage with the vital US assistance he requires to continue the war. He is bypassing Zelensky to deal directly with Russian President Putin on the fate of Ukraine. In a phone call today, Putin told Trump to shove it. He wouldn’t even agree to a 30-day ceasefire but pledged no attacks on critical infrastructure for 30 days. That won’t last much longer than the 3-hour phone call. It’s definitely a nothingburger.
Putin and Trump spent most of their time on the call talking about how to improve US/Russia relations. Of course for Putin that framing requires the US to drop its assistance to Kyiv. Trump is amenable. He can’t get anything out of Putin because he has already given away too much. I won’t be surprised if we hear soon about more pressure on Zelensky and less on Russia. Zelensky is refusing to give up territory, insisting on continued US aid, and rejecting the idea of neutrality. The diplomatic position is strong, but Ukraine’s military position is weak. Trump and Putin are the mighty. They don’t care what Zelensky wants.
The difference between at home and abroad
At home, we can hope the courts will slow, stop, and even reverse the crimes and misdemeanors. Americans will sue to get government employees rehired, independent institutions re-established, and citizen services provided. Nothing like that will happen with the might makes right behavior internationally. At least a generation will pass before the damage is repaired.
RSS - Posts
