Tag: Russia
Ending the Kosovo conundrum
The Conflict Managment program at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies sponsors a trip every January to a conflict area, after a semester of related study and briefings in DC. This year we did the trip virtually (via Zoom) to Pristina and Belgrade. You are cordially invited to attend our presentation of research results and recommendations for the future, 4:30 pm May 18, register here:
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Peace Picks | May 10-14, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- What does the future hold for NATO in the MENA region? | May 10, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative in collaboration with the Arab News Research and Studies is pleased to host an online Briefing Room Conversation to discuss the future of NATO in the Middle East-North Africa region.
Speakers:
Luke Coffey
Director, Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, The Heritage Foundation
Iulia Joja
Senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI; adjunct professor, Georgetown University
Tarek Ali Ahmad (Moderator)
Head, Arab News Research and Studies
2. Iraqi-US Relations Under Changing Administrations | May 10, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
As President Joe Biden completes the first 100 days of his presidency, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi nears his one-year anniversary in office. Iraq and the United States held their first strategic dialogue under the Biden administration in early April, discussing bilateral security cooperation, economic development in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and protection of democracy and freedom of speech, among other topics. These two new administrations will now have to set the course for the future of Iraqi-U.S. relations.
Speakers:
Suzanne Maloney (Introduction)
Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy, Brookings Institute
Joey Hood (Keynote)
Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, US Department of State
Abbas Kadhim
Iraq Initiative Director and Resident Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council
Marsin Alshamary
Post-Doctoral Fellow in Foreign Policy, Brookings Institute
Louisa Loveluck (Moderator)
Baghdad Bureau Chief, The Washington Post
3. Border Battle: Assessing the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan Clashes | May 10, 2021 | 12:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The death and destruction wrought by the recent violence between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the Ferghana Valley is a tragedy, with scores of victims on both sides of the border. Worryingly, the clashes might yet have broader implications for both countries and their Central Asian neighbors. How might the confrontation affect the rights of ethnic minorities, particularly in the various exclaves throughout the region? How can Bishkek and Dushanbe avoid a security dilemma that might further destabilize an already tense situation?
Speakers:
Dr. George Gavrilis
Fellow, University of California-Berkeley’s Center for Democracy, Toleration, and Religion
Jonathan Henick
Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, US Department of State
Akylai Karimova
Kyrgyz civil activist based in Osh
Dr. Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
Anahita Saymidinova
Dushanbe-based journalist for Iran International TV
Ambassador John Herbst (Moderator)
Director of the Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council.
4. Restricted Data: The History of Nuclear Secrecy in the United States | May 10, 2021 | 4:00 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
The American atomic bomb was born in secrecy. From the moment scientists first conceived of its possibility to the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and beyond, there were efforts to control the spread of nuclear information and the newly discovered scientific facts that made such powerful weapons possible. Drawing on troves of declassified files, including records released by the government for the first time through Wellerstein’s efforts, Restricted Data traces the complex evolution of the US nuclear secrecy regime from the first whisper of the atomic bomb through the mounting tensions of the Cold War and into the early twenty-first century.
Speakers:
Alex Wellerstein
Stevens Institute of Technology
Christian F. Ostermann (Co-Moderator)
Director, History and Public Policy Program; Cold War International History Project; North Korea Documentation; Nuclear Proliferation International History Project, Woodrow Wilson Center
Eric Arnesen (Co-Moderator)
Former Fellow, Professor of History, The George Washington University
Kathleen M. Vogel
Former Wilson Center Fellow; Arizona State University
Matthew Connelly
Former Fellow; Columbia University
5. Addressing Security Concerns in the Eastern Mediterranean | May 11, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | CSIS | Register Here
As a vital partner for the United States in the Eastern Mediterranean, Greece is witnessing significant shifts in its regional security environment. Minister Panagiotopoulos will discuss the reasons behind growing instability in the region and Greece’s initiatives to advance security and stability in the Eastern Mediterranean, working closely with regional partners. As NATO prepares to update its Strategic Concept starting this summer, Minister Panagiotopoulos will also reflect on Greece’s priorities for the updated concept; discuss how NATO can enhance its political cohesion and address new challenges; and outline ideas for expanding and deepening the U.S.-Greece strategic defence partnership. The conversation will be moderated by Heather A. Conley, CSIS Senior Vice President for Europe, Russia, and the Arctic, and Rachel Ellehuus, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia program.
Speakers:
Nikolaos Panagiotopoulos
Minister of National Defence, Greece
Heather A. Conley
Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia and the Arctic; and Director, Europe, Russia and the Eurasia Program, CSIS
Rachel Ellehuus
Deputy Director, Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program
6. Nonviolent Action and Minority Inclusion | May 11, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Mass movements employing nonviolent action have a demonstrated track record of improving democracy. But how deep and meaningful are these changes? Does nonviolent action merely change political institutions, or can it also address deeper drivers of social and political conflict, particularly for the most marginalized?
To better understand the intersection of nonviolent action and peace processes, join USIP for the final event in our series on people power, peace and democracy. The event series highlights multiple groundbreaking research projects and features insights from activists, international practitioners and policymakers that provide viewers with actionable takeaways.
This USIP event features lessons learned from cutting-edge research showing how nonviolent action affects political and economic inequality — particularly for historically excluded social and ethnic groups — using a cross-national statistical study and in-depth case studies from recent political transitions in Nepal and Indonesia. The research also specifically examines how movements can employ dialogue, negotiation and mediation to better ensure that political transitions following nonviolent action campaigns lead to greater inclusion for marginalized groups. This event will explore the important implications for both policy and practice in ensuring more inclusive democratization processes in the aftermath of nonviolent action.
Speakers:
Jonathan Pinckney (Moderator)
Senior Researcher, Nonviolent Action, U.S. Institute of Peace
Mohna Ansari
Member, National Human Rights Commission of Nepal
Subindra Bogati
Founder and Chief Executive, Nepal Peacebuilding Initiative
Titik Firawati
Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science, Northern Illinois University
Rosa Emilia Salamanca
Director, Institute for Social and Economic Research and Action
Deepak Thapa
Director, Social Science Baha
Ches Thurber
Assistant Professor, Northern Illinois University
7. Developments in Iran: Scandal, Schism and US-Iranian Relations | May 11, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has sensationally admitted that the Foreign Ministry in Tehran has no power to shape strategic policies. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has also scolded Zarif for questioning Tehran’s regional policies, which are designed and implemented by the Revolutionary Guards. This deep schism inside the Islamic Republic raises some important questions at a time when the US is engaged in direct talks with the Iranians in Vienna.
What is the balance of power between elected and unelected centers of powers in Tehran? How certain can the United States be about the ability of the Iranian state to collectively adhere to any nuclear agreement reached in Vienna? Where does this political reality in Tehran mean for Washington’s Iran policy that continues to impose sanctions on key entities in Iran, including the Revolutionary Guards?
Speakers:
Kenneth Katzman
Senior analyst, Congressional Research Service
Barbara Slavin
Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
Reza Vaisi
Editor, Iran International TV
Alex Vatanka (Moderator)
Director, Iran Program, MEI
8. China-Russia Relations at the Dawn of the Biden Era | May 12, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment: Center for Global Policy | Register Here
While U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia relations have steadily deteriorated, China-Russia cooperation has grown in its stead. On the heels of the contentious U.S.-China Alaska summit, Chinese and Russian foreign ministers met in Guilin to discuss bilateral cooperation on a range of issues and even published a joint statement promoting a shared vision for global governance.
However, it is unclear to what extent Russian and Chinese interests will continue to converge. Although both nations have found a common adversary in the United States, any divergence of Russian or Chinese interests could create roadblocks to the two countries’ warming relations. Given China’s increasing economic and political clout, how will Russia manage the relationship in a way that concurrently maintains cooperation with China and protects its own national interests? Will China continue to view Russia as a security and economic partner? And how does the United States view and approach strong China-Russia ties?
Speakers:
Paul Haenle (Moderator)
Maurice R. Greenberg Director Chair, Carnegie-Tsinghua Center, Beijing China
Andrew S. Weiss
James Family Chair and Vice President for Studies, Carnegie Endowment
Guan Guihai
Associate Professor and Executive Vice President, Institute of International and Strategic Studies, Peking University
Vita Spivak
Analyst, Control Risk
9. Middle East Security Establishments and Social Reform | May 12, 2021 | 2:00 PM ET | Belfer Center, Harvard Kennedy School | Register Here
Across the Middle East, the security sector has exercised substantial influence over media, education, and religious institutions, often to the detriment of their societies and American interests. Could they instead become a force for positive reform, and what role might their American allies play in helping them? Please join the Intelligence and Defense Projects for a seminar with Middle East expert Joseph Braude, who will discuss these issues and provide a number of policy suggestions.
Speakers:
Joseph Braude
President of the Center for Peace Communications
10. Czechmate? Russia’s Relations with Czechia go up in Smoke | May 13, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
As the Czech Republic and Russia spar over groundbreaking reports of Russian intelligence operations in Czechia, key lessons emerge about the Kremlin’s tactics, goals, and the ability to exploit openings from foreign governments to attempt operations with impunity. Importantly, these operations were not just designed to harm Czechia—the 2014 destruction of arms depots holding weapons bound for Ukraine link these attacks to the Kremlin’s broader hybrid war against Kyiv, and show an early operation carried out by the same officers responsible for some of the most high-profile Kremlin attacks on foreign soil in recent years. With diplomatic expulsions and talk of further measures to hold Moscow accountable for killings on Czech soil, this crisis is fast becoming the latest significant flashpoint in Russia’s relations with Europe.
Speakers:
H.E. Jakub Kulhánek (Keynote)
Minister of Foreign Affairs for the Czech Republic,
Ambassador Daniel Fried
Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council
Jakub Janda
Director of the European Values Center for Security Policy
Ambassador Jaroslav Kurfurst
Special Envoy for the Eastern Partnership at the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Laure Mandeville
Senior Reporter at Le Figaro and nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center
Ambassador John Herbst (Moderator)
Director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
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Stevenson’s army, May 5
– DNI warns Taliban threatens women’s rights in Afghanistan. The unclassified report is here.
– Peter Beinart warns end of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan raises risk of war.
– SAIS profs Barno and Bensahel propose an independent cyber force. [I disagree. It would tit US in direction of massive cyber attacks and reduce emphasis on defense and resilience. It would also be a bureaucratic nightmare conflicting with all other government cyber activities.]
– David Ignatius warns of Russian plans to control internet.
– Report says US now has ultra-quiet, “innocuous” drone.
– Survey shows changing US views of what constitutes security.
– Want more newsletters? Carnegie offers some.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The Alliance needs its members to get tough
In advance of the upcoming NATO Leaders Meeting, it is a timely to discuss the Alliance as a political forum and its future cohesion. NATO’s strength and resilience derive from Allies’ shared committment to the values and spirit of the Washington Treaty, namely the principles of democracy, individual liberty, the rule of law, and the development of peaceful international relations. As NATO grapples with a challenging security environment, it must also confront erosion of democratic norms within some member countries, which undermines NATO unity. On April 27, 2021, The Center for Strategic and International Studies convened a panel to discuss prospects for NATO cohesion in light of a changing strategic environment. Speakers and their affiliations are listed below:
Ambassador Muriel Domenach: Permanent Representative of France to NATO
MdB Omid Nouripour: Foreign Policy Spokesperson for the German Green party.
Rachel Ellehuus (Moderator): Deputy Director of the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program
Heather A. Conley (Introductory Remarks): Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic
Values and Principles Define NATO
One consistent theme of the panel was the centrality of democratic values and ideals for defining the character of the NATO alliance. Ambassador Domenach noted that a lack of ideological and political cohesion across NATO member countries is a detriment to Alliance structure. The increasing failure to agree on basic norms of good governance and democratic rule intensifies tension and undermines meaningful cooperation. Moreover, the failure to agree on basic values undermines the material ability of NATO and its member nations to engage in its core functions of deterrence and defense in two ways. First, ideological rifts are particularly significant in the context of NATO’s organizational structure, which requires unified decision-making. When any one country can block actions by the group, schisms within the group become increasingly problematic. Second, lack of ideological cohesion in NATO undermines credibility because it decreases the likelihood that NATO will be able to act decisively against its enemies.
Nouripour similarly argued that ideological divisions among NATO members has material implications for security. He pointed to Turkey’s current attempts to play the US and Russia off of one another. The most significant manifestation of this strategy of straddling with ideological opponents has been the purchase of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system. However, Ankara has recently discovered that the black boxes in the S-400 will not allow them to target Russian planes. In essence, then, a NATO ally has ceded its air defense sovereignty to Russia.
Ellehuus pointed out, however, that NATO has not always relied on, or succeeded based on, ideological uniformity. In fact, at the outset NATO included members such as Portugal that did not at the time share the same democratic values as many of the other members. She argued that this might indicate that value cohesion is not necessarily crucial for NATO. However, both Nouripour and Domenach agreed that ideological cohesion is more critical now than it was in the early days of NATO. Nouripour argued that democratic backsliding and the rise of disinformation campaigns and other attempts to actively weaken democracies dictates that a stronger emphasis be placed on maintaining democratic values.
Compelling Good Behavior
One clear weakness of the NATO structure that emerged out of this panel’s discussion is the difficulty that the organization has in compelling good behavior from non-compliant member states. Domenach pointed to suggestions about creating a code of conduct or reviewing compliance with fundamental NATO values. Ellehuus similarly pointed to two proposed articles that would require NATO allies to 1) refrain from politically motivated blockages of NATO business, and 2) to report any interactions with third countries that might affect the security of allies.
However, she also acknowledged that these changes were highly unlikely to pass in any meaningful form, largely because non-compliant members can and most likely will veto any attempt to pass these measures. She also argued that the North Atlantic Council is a valuable forum through which to air disagreements and negotiate solutions. Recent attempts by the NATO Secretary-General have proven fruitful in this regard.
Nouripour disagreed with this assessment to some extent. While he agreed that NATO is unlikely to pass meaningful reforms that allow it to police the conduct of member states, he similarly found the prospect of the North Atlantic Council and the NATO Secretary-General negotiating compliance to be unlikely. Instead, he argued more in favor of direct bilateral and multilateral engagement to push for democratic values. Given the constraints of NATO as an organization, he believes that states acting on a national basis can perhaps create greater leverage with member countries. Ellehuus ultimately agreed that national power might be an effective mechanism through which to encourage compliance
Therefore, while NATO faces a variety of internal and external threats to its political and ideological cohesion, member states are stepping up in innovative ways to tackle the new threats of the 21st century.
To watch the event in full, please click here.
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Peace Picks | May 3 – May 7, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
1. Rebalancing security and governance in the Sahel: Possible avenues for German intervention | May 3, 2021 | 9:30 AM – 10:30 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
Speakers
Andrew Lebovich: Policy Fellow, ECFR
Heike Thiele: Director, Civilian Crisis Prevention and Stabilisation, Federal Foreign Office (TBC)
Denis Tull: Africa and Middle East Fellow, SWP
Theodore Murphy (moderator): Africa Programme Director, ECFR
In the past several years, Germany has repeatedly expressed its strong commitment to stabilisation in the Sahel, and pushed for approaches encouraging political reform and improvements in governance and in internal security provision in the region. However, ongoing insecurity and international critiques of European approaches in the region show the need for continued rebalancing in international approaches. This panel will examine Germany’s approaches to stabilisation in the Sahel and how new approaches and policies could help improve the region’s tumultuous conflicts and political uncertainty.
2. Report launch—The impact of Western sanctions on Russia | May 3, 2021 | 11:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Speakers
Anders Aslund: Resident Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center
Maria Snegovaya: Nonresident Fellow, Eurasia Center
Sergey Aleksashenko: former deputy chairman, Central Bank of Russia
Elina Ribakova: deputy chief economist, the Institute of International Finance
Ambassador Daniel Fried (moderator): Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow, Atlantic Council
Since 2014, the US and its allies have countered the Kremlin’s growing “hybrid warfare” with sanctions. Moscow’s malign activities have included military aggression in Ukraine, election interference, cyberattacks, assassinations, and disinformation. Western sanctions have imposed serious costs on the Russian economy and President Vladimir Putin’s cronies, though the Kremlin and some others question the efficacy of sanctions on Russia. How successful have the sanctions been in altering Putin’s actions? How can future sanctions become more effective in imposing costs on the Kremlin?
3. New START: The Future of Arms Control Diplomacy and U.S.-Russian Relations | May 3, 2021 | 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Speakers
Rose Goettemoeller: Frank E. and Arthur W. Payne Distinguished Lecturer, Stanford University
Matthew Bunn: Professor, Harvard University
Ambassador Paula Dobriansky: Senior Fellow, Future of Diplomacy Project
Ambassador Doug Lute: Senior Fellow, Future of Diplomacy Project
Nicholas Burns: Professor, Harvard University
The extension of New START – the last remaining treaty limiting U.S. and Russian nuclear forces — sustains verifiable limits on Russian nuclear weapons that can reach the United States for the next five years. Can that time be used to negotiate a follow-on accord that serves both sides interests? With the collapse of the INF Treaty following Russian cheating and U.S. withdrawal, what can be done to address threats to U.S. and Russian security posed by INF-range missiles? What other key issues need to be addressed in strategic stability talks – with Russia, with China, or with others? How can the world community best address the danger of nuclear proliferation – especially when ongoing nuclear modernization in all of the nuclear-armed states is adding to long-standing tensions between nuclear haves and have-nots? Could the United States and Russia revive their past cooperation to control proliferation and prevent nuclear terrorism? Given the challenging relationship between Russia and the United States, Russia’s violations of some arms control agreements, its annexation of Crimea and military and cyber incursions and provocations along its border and beyond – and Russia’s equally long list of complaints about the United States – what might strategic arms diplomacy look like in the future? How can the proposed U.S.-Russia Summit advance arms control, nonproliferation, and a broader working relationship between the two countries?
4. Negotiating New START | May 4, 2021 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
Speakers
Rose Gottemoeller: nonresident senior fellow, Nuclear Policy Program
Peter Baker (moderator): chief White House correspondent, New York Times
In February, the Biden administration extended the New START treaty with Russia for another five years, buying time and space for future arms control with Russia. Secretary of State Blinken promised to use future arms control efforts to address all of Russia’s nuclear weapons and reduce dangers from China’s modern and growing nuclear arsenal. As the United States embarks on this new arms control approach, what can we learn from the negotiations of the last remaining strategic arms control treaty?
Join us for the launch of Rose Gottemoeller’s new book, Negotiating the New START Treaty, and a discussion with Peter Baker on the New START negotiations with Russia and the biggest hurdles, challenges, and insights that can serve as a window to the future of U.S.-Russia arms control.
5. They call it diplomacy: A conversation on the broader Middle East and the critical role of diplomats | May 5, 2021 | 2:00 PM – 3:15 PM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Speakers
Suzanne Maloney (moderator): Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy
Bruce Riedel: Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy
Sir Peter Westmacott: Former British Ambassador to the US
In his new memoir “They Call it Diplomacy,” former British Ambassador to the United States Peter Westmacott looks back on 40-years of service as a diplomat for the United Kingdom. Over the course of his distinguished career, Ambassador Westmacott served in many important roles, including as ambassador to Turkey, ambassador to France, and most recently, as ambassador to the United States. His career spanned the end of the Cold War to the post-9/11 era. And as second secretary in Tehran, Ambassador Westmacott spent four years as a diplomat in Iran in the lead up to the 1979 revolution. As the Biden administration develops its strategy for U.S. foreign policy and charts a way forward in arms control and nuclear policy, it is a critical time to evaluate the importance of diplomats and the role they play in engaging on the ground with communities in key regions across the globe.
6. Report Launch | Russia in the Middle East: National Security Challenges for the United States and Israel in the Biden Era | May 5, 2021 | 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
Speakers
Major General Amos Gilead: Executive Director, Institute for Policy and Strategy
James F. Jeffrey: Chair, Middle East Program
Matthew Rojansky: Director, Kennan Institute
Udi Evental: Senior Researcher, Institute for Policy and Strategy
Ksenia Svetlova: Senior Researcher, Institute for Policy and Strategy
Michael Kimmage: Professor, Catholic University of America
Susan Glasser (mooderator): Founding Editor, Politico Magazine
As U.S.-Russian tensions continue to escalate, Russia’s role in the Middle East is of urgent concern both to Israel and the United States. Potential flashpoints include Syria and Iran, new spheres of Russian engagement from Afghanistan to North Africa, and sensitive cybersecurity issues. Russia is also moving in tandem with China to push back against U.S. dominance, including in the Middle East. Leading experts from Israel and the United States address these challenges in a new report published by the Kennan Institute and the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya. In an upcoming discussion moderated by Susan Glasser, the report’s contributors will address the challenges Russia poses in the region and the decisions that policymakers in the U.S. and Israel face.
7. Transatlantic relations after President Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office | May 5, 2021 | 8:00 AM – 8:45 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
Speakers
Jeppe Kofod: Minister for Foreign Affairs, Denmark
Mark Leonard: Director, ECFR
Lykke Friis (moderator): Director, Think Tank Europa
President Joe Biden has come into office with the promise of restoring alliances and having the US reengage in global issues like climate, tax and fighting the covid-19 pandemic. At the top of the new administration’s agenda is also the approach to China. Where does this leave the EU and transatlantic relations? How central is the EU to the US and its interests in Europe?
8. The Post-Cold War Middle East: Iran, Iraq and International Politics in the 1980s | May 6, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
Speakers
Timothy Nunan: Freigeist Fellow, Center for Global History
Katelyn Tietzen: Military Historian, US Army Center for Military History
Samuel J. Hirst (moderator): Associate Director, Bilkent CRS
Barin Kayaoglu: Professor, American University of Iraq
The fourth event of the Global Middle East Seminar Series, organized in partnership with the Center for Russian Studies at Bilkent University, features Timothy Nunan and Katelyn Tietzen. They will be joined by Barin Kayaoğlu, who will act as discussant. The panelists will discuss Iranian and Iraqi foreign policies in the 1980s, and they will look beyond the Iran-Iraq War to questions about the transformation of the international politics of the Middle East in a formative decade. Among other issues, they will examine the Iranian and Iraqi pursuit of influence abroad, including through the activities of transnational actors in Lebanon and Libya. Situating Iranian and Iraqi politics in these terms highlights a moment that transcended Cold War divisions and reshaped regional politics in ways that remain significant today.
9. What’s Next for U.S.-Taiwan Economic Relations? | May 6, 2021 | 7:00 PM ET | Hoover Institute | Register Here
Speakers
Evan A. Feigenbaum: vice president for studies, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Kharis Templeman: Research Fellow, Hoover Institute
Innovation has been a source of comparative advantage for Taiwan—and an important basis for American firms, investors, and government to support Taiwan’s development while expanding mutually beneficial linkages. Yet Taiwan’s innovation advantage is eroding in the face of technological change and strategic risk. What should the next phase of U.S.-Taiwan economic cooperation look like? And how can the new U.S. administration work with Taiwan not just to build on legacy advantages, like in semiconductors, but also to invest in the emerging fields that are rapidly reshaping the future of work, industry, service delivery, and defense?
10. Fragility in Chad and counterterrorism strategies in West Africa | May 7, 2021 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Speakers
Kamissa Camara: Senior Visiting Expert for the Sahel, United States Institute of Peace
John Mukum Mbaku: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development
Joseph Siegle: Director of Research, Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Vanda Felbab-Brown (moderator): Director, Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors
The April 20 death of the President of Chad, Idriss Déby, and the subsequent military coup have profoundly destabilized the country and other parts of West Africa. Likewise, over the past year, the security situation has deteriorated significantly in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and northern Nigeria. The region is facing many severe challenges from climate change and desertification, poverty, and inequality to poor governance, militancy, and terrorism, precipitated by a diverse set of local militants and international terrorist groups. During President Déby’s three decades of authoritarian rule, Chad came to be seen as a crucial lynchpin of counterterrorism in the region and a key ally of the United States and France. Yet President Déby’s death once again highlights the dangers of building counterterrorism strategies around authoritarian leaders and the struggle to find effective policy alternatives.
On May 7, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host a panel of experts to examine the latest developments in Chad, as well as the regional implications and deeper policy dilemmas of counterterrorism, stabilization, and good governance.
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What if World War I had ended without US intervention?
SAIS Professor Charlie Stevenson writes:
Philip Zelikow, academic, diplomat, and executive director of the 9/11 commission, has written an excellent book with a deeply tragic story. The Road Less Traveled [Public Affairs, 2021] analyzes Woodrow Wilson’s failed effort to launch peace talks that could have ended the bloody conflict in Europe and kept the United States out of the war.
Zelikow knows how government works from the inside. He also co-authored the second edition of Graham Allison’s Essence of Decision, the landmark work on bureaucratic politics analysis. He uses that background to explain the many ways in which good intentions for peace were scuttled by zealots for war.
Among his assessments:
- Woodrow Wilson wanted to shepherd a peace conference but didn’t understand how to craft the diplomacy. He was more angry with Britain than Germany as late as January 31, 1917.
- Wilson was undermined by his close adviser, Edward House, who miscommunicated many of Wilson’s views to European diplomats and personally wanted to join the war in support of Britain.
- Wilson was also undermined by his senior State Department officials, who also favored joining the war with the Allies and who failed to turn Wilson’s goals into a plan.
- Germany’s civilian government desperately wanted peace and offered substantial concessions, but they were ultimately overruled by the military high command, who promised the kaiser a quick victory through submarine warfare.
- The British government was ready to accept peace talks in the fall of 1916, only to be out-maneuvered and then replaced by David Lloyd George, who privately believed the war couldn’t be won yet publicly vowed a fight to the finish. [His plan for victory envisioned battles in the Balkans and Turkey.]
- The French and Russian governments faced growing public opposition to continuing the war and would likely have agreed to a status quo ante bellum peace.
If only experienced career diplomats had developed a plan for launching peace talks…
If only Wilson had pushed ahead and forced his subordinates to act on that plan…
If only the British had recognized their desperate financial situation and acted while Asquith was still prime minister…
If only the German Chancellor had persuaded the kaiser to delay the return to unrestricted submarine warfare…
The United States would not have entered the war. [Wilson had already cut off British access to US loans.]
Russia might not have had its revolutions and ultimately a communist takeover.
Postwar Europe would not have been so disrupted by political unrest and military conflict.
I’ve spent a lot of time over the years studying the outbreak of war in 1914. Since historians usually only write about things that have happened, it’s rare to have such a solid work about something that almost happened. Zelikow has profound lessons for practitioners on how ideas get turned into policies and policies processed into accomplishments.
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