Tag: Syria
This week’s peace picks
It’s a relatively light week for foreign policy events with all eyes focused on the US elections.
1. Political Shiism in the Arab World: Rituals, Ideologies, and Politics, Monday November 5, 9:00 AM – 11:30 AM, George Mason University
Venue: George Mason University, Arlington Campus, 3301 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 2201, Truland Building, Room 555
Speakers: Jana al Horr, Solon Simmons, Terrence Lyons
Researchers and experts on Arab politics have often debated the role of political Shiism as a source of regional instability and conflict following the 2003 U.S-Iraq war. Some argue that the expansion of political Shiism in the Arab world is a quest for political leadership resulting from a long-standing conflict with Sunnis, coupled with centuries of Shiite political and economic marginalization. Other argue that political Shiism holds revolutionary elements that can be re-interpreted to fit any political context that Shiites perceive as threatening. This view perceives that Shiite religious elements can be made to fit the current needs of various political contexts and are the main drivers of political mobilization and ultimately conflict. Both these views offer a narrow and restricted description of political Shiism; hence, the literature on political Shiism lacks a systematic understanding of the phenomenon. To address this gap, the research asks the following questions: (1) What is political Shiism? Is it monolithic? What are its forms? And who are its ideologues?; and (2) How do Arab Shiites mobilize for political protests?
In order to answer these questions, the research provides an examination of rituals, ideologies, and speeches of political Shiism embedded in the historical and geographical context of the Arab region in specific, and the Middle East in general, during the last century. Following a combination of methodological approaches, the research will first examine the centrality of Ashura rituals and celebrations in political Shiism; second, the research will explore the plurality of political Shiism thought in the twentieth, its progression from quietism to activism, and the influence of regional politics on its development; third, through analyzing current speeches of Shiite leaders in Lebanon and Iraq, the research will shed light on contemporary political Shiism language, its themes that mobilize the masses, and its connection to past ideologues previously examined.
The research seeks to extend the debate over the forces of mobilization of political Shiism, and contribute to a more constructive and coherent understanding of Shiite political actions in the Arab world. It confirms that the transformation of political Shiism from quietism to activism can be traced back socio-political changes that occurred in the early twentieth century. Additionally, it identifies how conflict associated with political Shiism is not linked to the Sunni-Shiite schism. Instead, the divide between the Arab world and the West is at the heart of political Shiism. Furthermore, the research highlights the importance of Ashura in political Shiism, but it is the rituals coupled with local and regional political events that create mobilization.
One important contribution of the dissertation is that it offers an inside descriptive look into the formation of political Shiism, its main ideologues, and issues that distinguish political Shiism as one of the main forces for political mobilization in the Arab world. The research aims at providing a broader understanding of political Shiism to address the gaps that exist in the current literature, and offer a new way of thinking about this rising religio-political phenomenon.
2. The Challenge of Security Sector Reform in the Arab World, Monday November 5, 9:30 AM – 11:30 AM, USIP
Venue: USIP, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037
Speakers: Steven Heydemann, Robert Perito, Querine Hanlon, Daniel Brumberg, Manal Omar
If the first season of the “Arab Uprisings” brought hope, the second season has illustrated many hard challenges, not least of which is restructuring the military, policy and intelligence services of Arab states. Even in Tunisia, where the military played a crucial role in supporting the “Jasmine Revolution,” the ultimate loyalty of the security services remains an open question. To examine this issue, USIP will convene a panel of experts on Monday, November 5, 2012 from 9:30am-11:30am to discuss the institutional, economic and political challenges posed by the quest to remake security sectors into allies of pluralistic democratic change. Please join us for what promises to be a revealing and provocative discussion.
Register for this event here.
3. Turkey in the Middle East: Role, Influence, and Challenges, Monday November 5, 6:00 PM – 7:15 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Lindner Family Commons, Room 602
Speakers: Omer Taspinar, Bulent Aliriza, Edward Skip Gnehm
Under the leadership of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoan, Turkey is a major player in the Middle East. Turkey’s active involvement in the Syrian crisis, rivalry with Iran, and outspoken advocacy of Palestinian statehood place Turkey at the center of regional events. The panelists will examine Turkey’s rising role in the region, addressing regional opportunities as well as domestic politics.
Register for this event here.
4. Aiding Conflict: The Impact of U.S. Food Aid on Civil War, Tuesday November 6, 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, Hall of Government, 2115 G Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Kendrick Seminar Room, Room 321
Speaker: Nathan Nunn
This paper examines the effect of U.S. food aid on conflict in recipient countries. To establish a causal relationship, we exploit time variation in food aid caused by fluctuations in U.S. wheat production together with cross-sectional variation in a countrys tendency to receive any food aid from the United States. Our estimates show that an increase in U.S. food aid increases the incidence, onset and duration of civil conflicts in recipient countries. Our results suggest that the effects are larger for smaller scale civil conflicts. No effect is found on interstate warfare.
Register for this event here.
5. Post-Election Day Analysis – What Happened and What Comes Next?, Wednesday November 7, 10:00 AM, Brookings Institution
Venue: Attendance by webcast only.
Speaker: Benjamin Wittes, William A. Galston, Robert Kagan, Thomas E. Mann, Isabel V. Sawhill
This year’s presidential and congressional elections are likely to be close—perhaps very close. They will have a profound impact on the nation’s future course in both the domestic and foreign policy spheres. The outcome of the November 6 election will raise important policy and political questions: What was key to the winning presidential candidate’s success, and what do the results reveal about the 2012 American electorate? In what direction will the new administration take the nation? What might a lame duck Obama administration and Congress look like—and how will the negotiations over the fiscal cliff proceed? What will be the congressional dynamics? What are the incoming administration’s policy prospects during the 113th Congress? And what are the consequences for U.S. foreign policy?
On November 7, the Campaign 2012 project at Brookings will host a final forum analyzing the election’s outcomes and how these results will affect the policy agenda of the next administration and Congress. Panelists will discuss the approach of the incoming administration, the political makeup of the new 113th Congress and the prospect for policy breakthroughs on key social, fiscal and foreign policy issues.
After the program, panelists will take questions from the audience. Participants may follow the conversation on Twitter using the hashtag #BI2012.
6. Syria: The Path Ahead, Thursday November 8, 9:30 AM – 11:30 AM, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Saul/Zilkha Room
Speakers: Daniel L. Byman, Michael Doran, Salman Shaikh
As the Syrian conflict approaches its twentieth month, fears are mounting that Bashar al-Assad’s regime may stay in power or that Syria will collapse into sectarian war. An enduring conflict in Syria will have far-reaching consequences for the region, could threaten key U.S. partners, and may require urgent decisions. Has the struggle for democracy in Syria been lost? Is there more the United States could do to influence events there? What steps could the international community take to prevent strife and sectarianism from spreading throughout the region?
On November 8, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will explore these and other questions about the conflict in Syria. Panelists Mike Doran, the Roger Hertog senior fellow in the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, and Director of the Brookings Doha Center Salman Shaikh, appearing by video conference, will discuss policy options for the U.S. and international community, with a focus on Shaikh’s recently authored paper, “Losing Syria (And How to Avoid It).” Daniel L. Byman, senior fellow and research director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, will moderate the discussion.
Participants can follow the conversation on Twitter using hashtag #SavingSyria. After the program, the panelists will take audience questions.
Register for this event here.
7. Ending Wars Well: Order, Justice, Conciliation, Thursday November 8, 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM, Berkeley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs
Venue: Berkeley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs, Georgetown University, 3307 M Street, Washington, DC 20007, Suite 200
Speakers: Eric Patterson, Timothy Shah, John P. Gallagher
Why don’t wars “end well?” From Rwanda to Colombia to Afghanistan, it seems that modern wars drag on and on, with terrible costs for civilians and their neighbors. In his new book, Ending Wars Well, Berkley Center Senior Research Fellow Eric Patterson argues that just war principles can provide a framework for bringing wars to modest yet enduring conclusions. More specifically, he criticizes grandiose peace schemes that are not rooted in the realities of security and political order. In contrast, he proposes a model that begins with investment in Order as a practical and moral imperative. This provides a foundation for Justice (e.g. punishment, restitution) and Conciliation in unique situations.
Patterson uses Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan, East Timor, the Camp David Accords, and the US Civil War as test cases for this model. The Berkley Center’s Timothy Samuel Shah will moderate Patterson’s discussion with LtCol John Gallagher, a former West Point professor and current staff officer to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Register for this event here.
8. Anti-Extremism Laws in Russia, Pakistan, and China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Thursday November 8, 3:00 PM – 4:30 PM, Freedom House
Venue: Freedom House 1301 Connecticut Ave. NW 4th Floor Washington, DC 20036
Speakers: David Kramer, Virab Khachatryan, Peter Roudik, Aleksandr Verhovsky, Laney Zhang
Freedom House is pleased to host a roundtable with the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom on the anti-extremism legal frameworks in China, Pakistan, and Russia. Moderated by Freedom House President David Kramer, the on-the-record roundtable will provide an opportunity for participants to engage experts and authors of The Law Library of Congress’s report Legal Provisions on Fighting Extremism. The participants will compare and contrast the differing approaches to anti-extremism laws in China, Pakistan, and Russia. The round table comes at an important time as repressive regimes are developing anti-extremism laws and implementing them in broad terms to suppress criticism.
Register for this event here.
9. Afghanistan 2014: What Happens Next? A Discussion with the Former Ambassador of Afghanistan Said Tayeb Jawad, Thursday November 8, 7:30 PM – 9:00 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Henry Harding Auditorium, Room 213
Speaker: Said Tayeb Jawad
Delta Phi Epsilon Professional Foreign Service Sorority and the Afghan Student Association proudly present “Afghanistan 2014: What Happens Next? A Discussion with the Former Ambassador of Afghanistan, Said Tayeb Jawad.” The Ambassador will discuss the future of Afghanistan with the scheduled U.S. withdrawal and the 2014 Afghan elections.
Register for this event here.
10. Cyber as a Form of National Power, Friday November 9, 5:00 PM – 6:30 PM, Institute of World Politics
Venue: The Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th Street NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speaker: Samuel Liles
Dr. Samuel Liles is an associate professor at Purdue University West Lafayette in the Computer Information Technology Department of the College of Technology where he teaches computer forensics. Dr. Liles is a faculty member with CERIAS at Purdue University. CERIAS is known as the premier multidisciplinary academic center in information security and assurance, and has produced nearly half of the PhD graduates in that field in the US over the last 15 years. Previously he was a professor in the Information Resources Management College at The National Defense University in Washington DC, and prior to that the Computer Information Technology Department at Purdue University Calumet. As a researcher his interest is in cyber warfare as a form of low intensity conflict has had him presenting to audiences world-wide. Samuel Liles completed his PhD at Purdue University primarily studying cyber conflict, issues of cyber conflict, information assurance and security, and cyber forensics.
RSVP for this event to kbridges@iwp.edu.
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No magic wand
François Heisbourg advocates NATO-backed military intervention in Syria without a UN Security Council resolution, based on Turkey’s right to self-defense under Article 51 of the UN charter.
That is daring, but then he pulls his punches: he wants no more than a 50-mile no-fly zone along the Turkish-Syrian border. No intervening aircraft would fly into Syrian air space. Enforcement would be by missiles fired from the Turkish side of the border. France and Britain would somehow “join.”
Then he waves a magic wand:
The zone would include Aleppo, which means the regime’s bombardment of Syria’s largest city would cease. Its fall, along with unimpeded access to logistical support from Turkey, would give the insurgency the upper hand.
And with no boots on the ground, this intervention would not require an exit strategy.
I guess it could work that way, but the odds are at least as good it would not. Aleppo is barely within 50 miles of the Turkish border. Missiles fired from Turkey won’t keep the Syrian army out of Aleppo. Nor will they do anything to block the Syrians from bombarding the city with artillery. The Syrian regime would surely escalate Kurdish guerrilla attacks inside Turkey, intensifying the already considerable political opposition to the Turkish government’s aggressive posture on Syria.
What if I am wrong and it works? An “exit” strategy might be unnecessary, but an entrance strategy would be vital. There is no reason to think that a sudden collapse of the Assad regime will be a peaceful and loving affair. The Turks and Americans are not going to sit around letting the chips fall where they may, since they might well fall in the direction of an extremist Sunni regime. Neither will the Iranians and the Iraqi Arabs and Kurds, or for that matter the Qataris and Saudis. Each will have his own agenda. The aftermath of the fall of this regime could be even bloodier than its lengthy and sanguinary demise.
I hesitate to repeat what I have said many times previously: safe areas are target-rich environments that will attract the murderous instincts of the Assad regime. If you want a no-fly zone, it will have to be far wider than 50 miles and enforced with active patrols, as we did in Iraq. That means destruction of Syrian air defenses, and continued willingness to destroy them on a daily basis.
Heisbourg is also hoping the Americans will rouse themselves from inaction after the November 6 election. I doubt it. More arms may flow then to the Syrian rebellion, but people in Washington is really worried about empowering more jihadi in ways that we will come to regret. “Fast and furious” in the Middle East could be a lot more serious than in Mexico.
The best bet for a decent outcome of the Syrian rebellion is a negotiated exit of Bashar al Assad, followed by an internationally supervised transition. I know that’s not on the horizon yet. But until it is we are likely to see the fighting continue.
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Levant maelstrom
“Truce” – A caricture by world-renowned Syrian cartoonest Ali Farzat who once had his fingers crushed by Syrian security forces
The Eid al Adha truce broke down yesterday afternoon in Syria, with activists reporting 292 breaches by regime forces, who allegedly killed 116 people. Anti-regime demonstrations numbered 332. Damascus saw one big blast and many clashes. This strikes me as a particularly comprehensive list of reasons why the ceasefire could not last, with obvious bias towards the rebellion. Who wouldn’t be biased in that direction after 19 months of watching the regime kill its own people?
What now?
First there is the blame game. Regime and rebels will seek to pin the quick breakdown of the ceasefire on the other side. Neither will want its backers to react by cutting off arms, money and other support. The regime has little to worry about. The Russians and Iranians seem to be firm in supporting Bashar al Assad. The insurgents have more reason to be concerned. Turkey is getting wobbly. Washington is preoccupied until November 7 (and maybe for a few months after, if Romney wins). Saudi Arabia and Qatar are supplying ample arms and money but not seeing clear results. Extreme Islamists are increasingly prominent in the armed rebellion.
Brahimi will try hard to reinstate the ceasefire, arguing that each side should show restraint and police its own forces. This will work only if the rebels and the regime figure there is not much to be gained by continuing to fight. Even if they decide they have reached the “mutually hurting stalemate” that provides an opportunity for a ceasefire, it is difficult to see how it can work without third-party monitoring. Given the fate of the Arab League and UN observers earlier in the year, who would want to field another monitoring group?
I fear we are headed further into the abyss. With Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey increasingly at risk from spillover, the Levant may be condemned to a maelstrom of conflict whose eventual consequences could include assassinations, collapsed states, sectarian and ethnic war, economic implosion and safe haven for terrorists. Spread of the violence to the Gulf could make things worse. This cannot be ruled out. Even if Iran does not encourage it, Shia sentiment in Iraq, Bahrain and the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia could significantly increase sectarian tensions.
The longer this goes on, the worse it is likely to get. Whoever wins the American presidency on November 6 needs to be thinking quickly about how to restore a modicum of order in the Levant. There are many options, none of them obvious winners:
1. Heavy arms for the (relative) good guys
2. No-fly zone (all of Syria or part)
3. Safe area inside Syria along the Turkish border
4. Political, economic and military support to liberated “ink spots” within Syria
5. Indictment of Bashar al Assad
6. Regime decapitation
7. Diplomatic push on the opposition to go to negotiations with the regime
These could also be mixed and matched. I’m sure there are other ideas out there as well, but this will do for a start. The important thing is block the descent into a regional maelstrom that will last for years and cause untold damage.
PS: The Red Cross on the humanitarian situation:
PS, October 29: Did I get Brahimi right?
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Peace requires sacrifice
Eid al Adha, the feast that commemorates Abraham’s willingness to sacrifice Ishmael (and Ishmael’s acceptance) in the Koranic version of the story, is starting relatively quietly in Syria. The ceasefire that both the Syrian government and some of the revolutionaries had agreed with UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, and the UN Security Council endorsed, has reportedly held in much of the country for the first few hours after Friday morning prayers today. Demonstrators are taking the opportunity to go to the street.
I have my doubts that the situation is “ripe.” The conflict is far from over. Both sides are hurting, but there is no “mutually hurting stalemate.” The rebellion has been gaining ground in Aleppo in recent days. Some of the rebels feel they have something to gain from continuing to fight. The Syrian army statement accepting the ceasefire was equivocal. It reserved the right to respond to the following:
First, the continuation of the armed terrorist groups’ gunfire against civilians and government forces and attacking public and private properties, in addition to using booby-trapped cars and explosive devices.
Second, attempts of the armed terrorist groups to reinforce their positions as of the beginning of this announcement or getting munitions or members.
Third, the facilitation of neighboring countries to let terrorists pass across the borders to Syria.
On the rebel side, the Free Syria Army accepted the ceasefire, but the radical Al-Nusra Front,which the Institute for the Study of War describes as a homegrown Salafi-jihadist group, did not, thus guaranteeing that the three conditions would not be met. It is hard to imagine a ceasefire holding for long under these circumstances.
That however doesn’t mean Brahimi was wrong to try. He should keep on trying. The ceasefire will give relative moderates both within the regime and among the opposition an opportunity to reassert themselves. He needs to give these people opportunities to express their opposition to continued fighting, reaching beyond the more belligerent components of both sides to find a constituency that will support a political process.
There will be many ceasefire “violations,” and the likelihood of a return to fighting is still high. The ceasefire has no monitoring mechanism. After a few days (or even a few hours) of rest, fighters on both sides may feel like going at it again. The regime is not going to want peaceful demonstrations showing the strength of the rebellion or rearming of the Free Syrian Army. The armed rebels are not going to want the regime to use the ceasefire to regain its balance and reset its strategy, which has accomplished little beyond destruction so far.
Brahimi and his team will need enormous patience and commitment. I wish them well. They will need the kind of faith Abraham and his son demonstrated. Peace requires sacrifice.
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This week’s peace picks
There are many options this week, including several with a focus on the approaching US elections.
1. Iraq Energy Outlook, Monday October 22, 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM, CSIS
Venue: CSIS, 1800 K Street NW, Washington DC, 20006, B1 Conference Room
Speakers: Fatih Birol, Jabir Habeb
The CSIS Energy and National Security Program is pleased to host Dr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist and Director of Global Energy Economics at the IEA, to present highlights from the IEA’s recent World Energy Outlook Special Report, the Iraq Energy Outlook.
Iraq is already the world’s third-largest oil exporter. It has the resources and intention to increase its oil production vastly. Contracts are already in place.Will Iraq’s ambitions be realised? And what would the implications be for Iraq’s economy and for world oil markets? The obstacles are formidable: political, logistical, legal, regulatory, financial, lack of security and sufficient skilled labour. One example: in 2011, grid electricity could meet only 55% of demand.
The International Energy Agency has studied these issues with the support and close co-operation of the government of Iraq and many other leading officials, commentators, industry representatives and international experts. The report examines the role of the energy sector in the Iraqi economy today and in the future, assesses oil and gas revenues and investment needs, provides a detailed analysis of oil, gas and electricity supply through to 2035, highlighting the challenges of infrastructure development and water availability, and spells out the associated opportunities and risks, both for world oil markets and for Iraq’s economy and energy sector.
RSVP for this event to energy@csis.org.
2. Religion, Violence, and Coexistence, Monday October 22, 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM, USIP
Venue: USIP, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC
Speakers: Suzan Johnson Cook, Haris Tarin, Marc Gopin, Manal Omar, Susan Hayward
The Internet release of a trailer for the anti-Islam film “The Innocence of Muslims” recently sparked protests around the world, some of which turned violent. These events serve as a stark reminder of the relationship between freedom of expression, religious coexistence, religious freedom, violence and security.
On October 22, 2012, the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) will host a panel discussion about civil society’s role in preventing and addressing provocative statements of religious bias and violent responses to it. The panelists will discuss the complementarities and tensions between the freedoms of expression and religion, use of the media in fomenting religious discrimination, and how to work with the media to promote respect for all religious traditions. The conversation will focus on how these issues are playing out in the context of political transitions occurring throughout the Middle East and North Africa, and the way in which civil society and the U.S. government can collaborate constructively to advance peaceful religious coexistence, freedom, and security.
This public discussion is co-sponsored with the Office of International Religious Freedom at the U.S. Department of State.
Register for this event here.
3. Adaptable Autocrats: Regime Power in Egypt and Syria, Monday October 22, 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM, Woodrow Wilson Center
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20004, 6th Floor
Speaker: Joshua Stacher
Why did the uprisings in Egypt and Syria turn out so differently? In his recent book, Adaptable Autocrats, Joshua Stacher argues the different outcomes are a product of how executive power flowed before the protests began. While popular mobilization challenged both regimes, Egypt’s Mubarak could be replaced as the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) slid into the executive’s role to adapt the system, while the option of changing the ruling coalition still has not occurred in Syria. Based on years of field research in Egypt and Syria, Stacher lays out a template for understanding the Arab uprisings and the turmoil that has followed.
Register for this event here.
4. AFSA Book Notes: “America’s Other Army”, Monday October 22, 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM, American Foreign Service Association
Venue: American Foreign Service Association, 2101 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20037
Speaker: Nicholas Kralev
“America’s Other Army” brings the high-flying world of international diplomacy down to earth and puts a human face on a mysterious profession that has undergone a dramatic transformation since September 11, 2001. Through the stories of American diplomats, the book explains how their work affects millions of people in the United States and around the world every day, and how it contributes directly to U.S. security and prosperity. It shows a more inclusive American diplomacy that has moved beyond interacting with governments and has engaged with the private sector, civil society and individual citizens. Having visited more than 50 embassies and interviewed about 600 American diplomats, author Nicholas Kralev reveals a Foreign Service whose diversity and professional versatility have shattered old perceptions and redefined modern diplomacy. But he also depicts a service not fully equipped to address the complex challenges of the 21st century.
RSVP for this event to events@afsa.org.
5. Book Discussion: Powerful Peace: A Navy SEAL’s Lessons on Peace from a Lifetime at War, Monday October 22, 6:00 PM – 7:00 PM, CSIS
Venue: CSIS, 1800 K Street NW, Washington DC, 20006, B1 A/B Conference Room
Speakers: J. Robert DuBois, Rick “Ozzie” Nelson
“Nowhere is the cost of failure higher than in the life-and-death struggle of armed conflict. Now J. Robert Dubois harnesses that real-world sense of wartime urgency to guide our search for solutions to challenging problems. He takes on a crucial and unprecedented mission for a retired Navy SEAL: the relentless pursuit of interpersonal and international peacekeeping as an imperative to global security. A treatise for policy makers and warriors, mediators and educators, Powerful Peace is also a compelling and practical guide to problem solving for every engaged citizen.” Please join the CSIS Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Program on the evening of October 22 for a discussion with J. Robert DuBois regarding his new book, Powerful Peace, as well as his insights into the importance of peacemaking at the global and personal level.
Register for this event here.
6. Decision 2012: The Foreign Policy Debate, Monday October 22, 8:00 PM – 11:00 PM, George Washington School of Media and Public Affairs
Venue: GW School of Media and Public Affairs, 805 21st Street NW, Washington DC, 20052, Jack Morton Auditorium
Speakers: Doug Wilson, Richard Engel, Anne Gearan, Susan Glasser, Noah Shachtman
Join us at the Jack Morton Auditorium for pre-debate insight from four of America’s most respected and experienced national security correspondents — and immediately following, for the final presidential debate.
7:30 PM – 8:00 PM Reception
8:00 PM – 9:00 PM Panel Discussion
9:00 PM – 10:30 PM Debate Watch
10:30 PM – 11:00 PM Analysis and Closing Remarks
Register for this event here.
7. Connecting to Diaspora Communities Through Web Portals: Opportunities and Limitations, Tuesday October 23, 9:00 AM – 10:00 PM, QED Group
Venue: QED Group, LLC, 1250 Eye Street NW, Washington, DC 20005, Suite 1100
Speakers: Eric Guichard, Molly Mattessich
Diaspora communities have played a longtime role in the development of their countries of origin in areas as diverse as business development, financial investments, philanthropy, volunteerism, advocacy, etc.
For instance, the amount of money diaspora communities send to their home countries as remittance far exceed that of official development aid. In 2010, the globally recorded amount in remittance flows to developing countries was $325 billion and the World Bank estimates that amount to reach an estimated $404 billion a year by 2013. Regionally, African diaspora communities contribute an estimated $40 billion in remittances annually to the continent. Similarly, philanthropy from the US to developing countries was estimated at $39 billion in 2010 by the Index of Global Philanthropy and Remittances.
These staggering amounts have triggered a change in recent years among the formal donor community as diaspora communities are increasingly recognized as a credible and meaningful contributor to development. Given the significant contribution of diaspora communities, a key issue facing the donor community has become how to engage and partner effectively with diasporas? In this area of technological hyper-development, web portals have become omnipresent in any development venture and diaspora-driven development is not different. This seminar will present two such portals—Homestrings, a private investment platform, and Africa Rural Connect , an online global philanthropic network—and examine their effectiveness in engaging diasporas in development.
Register for this event here.
8. Applying Peace Economics in Dangerous Places, Tuesday October 23, 10:00 AM – 12:30 PM, USIP
Venue: USIP, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037
Speakers: Jurgen Brauer, J. Paul Dunne, Clare Lockhart, Todd Moss, Raymond Gilpin
Creating a sound economic policy and a stable macroeconomic framework is essential to societies recovering from violent conflict, yet few practitioners have the background needed to apply economic concepts effectively. USIP’s new publication titled “Peace Economics: A Macroeconomic Primer for Violence-Afflicted States” provides a concise but broad overview of practical ways that sound macroeconomic fundamentals could be used to build stability in states that are affected by violent conflict.
The discussion extends beyond economic principles into the wider realm of social reconstitution, social contract, and social capital. Co-authors, Jurgen Brauer and J. Paul Dunne, examine recent case studies and illustrate the applicability of concepts presented in the book.
Register for this event here.
9. National Security Challenges from an Israeli Perspective, Tuesday October 23, 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM, Heritage Foundation ****THIS EVENT HAS BEEN CANCELED.
Venue: Heritage Foundation, 214 Massachusetts Avenue NE, Washington, DC 20002, Lehrman Auditorium
Speakers: Yossi Baidatz, Steven P. Bucci
Israel, long America’s closest ally in the Middle East, faces growing national security challenges from Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and various radical Islamist groups that have flourished during the so-called “Arab Spring.” The collapse of Egypt’s Mubarak government, Syria’s intensifying civil war and growing strains inside Jordan have added greater uncertainty to an already volatile region. Iran continues to make substantial progress in enriching uranium for a nuclear weapon, as well as expanding its arsenal of ballistic missiles, some of which can reach Israeli targets. Iran also has transferred increasingly sophisticated rockets to Hezbollah and Hamas, each of which has used them to bombard Israeli civilians.
Please join Major General Yossi Baidatz, Commandant of the Israeli National Defense College, as he offers his insights in assessing Israel’s security environment and the important role of US-Israeli security cooperation.
Register for this event here.
10. The Political and Economic Implications of the Palestinian Authority’s Fiscal Crisis, Tuesday October 23, 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Venue: Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, 1619 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Rome Building Auditorium
Speakers: Robert Danin, Khaled Elgindy, Oussama Kanaan, Hussein Ibish
The Middle East Institute’s George and Rhonda Salem Family Foundation and the SAIS Conflict Management Program are proud to host Robert Danin, Khaled Elgindy, and Oussama Kanaan for a discussion about the fiscal crisis facing the Palestine Authority and the political implications of the PA’s deteriorating economic situation. In mid-September, the IMF and the World Bank issued a report saying that the Palestinian financial crisis will worsen unless foreign funding increases and Israel eases restrictions on economic activity. Neither solution looks imminent and protests in response to the economic hardships have turned into an indictment of President Mahmoud Abbas’s policies, raising questions about the future of the PA’s leadership. Danin, Elgindy, and Kanaan will examine the economic and political fallout stemming from the latest crisis and explore the role of the international community in finding a way out.
Register for this event here.
11. The Rise of Extremism in Greece and Its Impact on Minorities, Tuesday October 23, 4:00 PM – 5:30 PM, United Macedonian Diaspora
Venue: United Macedonian Diaspora, 1510 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20005, Suite 900
Speakers: Archimandrite Nikodim Tsarknias, Sali Bollati, Stacy Burdett, Eugenia Natsoulidou, Sevin Elekdag
European Union member-state Greece is home to Macedonian and Turkish minorities, with sizeable Albanian, Roma and migrant populations and religious communities such as Catholics and Jews. Known as the cradle of democracy, Greece has seen a significant democratic deficit especially towards its minorities. Recently, the Chrysi Avgi (Golden Dawn), the Greek neo-Nazi political party, which denies the Holocaust ever occurred, has risen in popularity, given the deepening economic crisis in the country. The right wing extremist group has secured 18 seats – 9 percent of the total – in the Greek parliament against a backdrop of increased anti-Semitic and xenophobic rhetoric throughout the country.
Is the rise of extremism in Greece a new phenomenon or embedded within Greek society? What does this mean for the minority communities of Greece?
Greece chaired the OSCE in 2009, and now is vying for a seat on the UN Human Rights Council. In July, the EU appointed as its first Special Representative for Human Rights, the previous Greek Foreign Minister Stavros Lambrinidis.
RSVP for this event to tgzirishvili@umdiaspora.org.
12. Jordan in the Crosshairs, Tuesday October 23, 6:00 PM – 7:15 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Lindner Family Commons, Room 602
Speakers: Marwan Al-Muashar, Curtis Ryan, Edward Skip Gnehm
Although the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has so far weathered the region’s political upheaval, rising domestic unrest combined with regional pressure stemming from the Syrian conflict pose serious challenges to Jordan’s stability. The panelists will discuss the internal and external pressures shaping Jordan’s contentious political process, assessing the prospects of political reform and potential for greater unrest.
Register for this event here.
13. Fortress Israel: The Inside Story of the Military Elite Who Run the Country – and Why They Can’t Make Peace, Wednesday October 24, 4:00 PM – 5:30 PM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speaker: Patrick Tyler
Former Washington Post and New York Times reporter Patrick Tyler speaks about his new book “Fortress Israel: The Inside Story of the Military Elite Who Run the Country–and Why They Can’t Make Peace.”
RSVP for this event to info@fmep.org.
14. Foreign Policy and the Presidential Election: A Post-Debate Analysis, Wednesday October 25, 4:30 PM – 5:30 PM, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Falk Auditorium
Speakers: Martin Indyk, Susan Glasser, Robert Kagan, Kenneth G. Lieberthal, Suzanne Maloney, Bruce Riedel
With just two weeks to go before the U.S. election, President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney will engage in their final presidential debate on Monday, October 22. In this next debate, the candidates will focus on a wide range of foreign policy issues, including the U.S. mission in Afghanistan, U.S. counterterrorism efforts, the Iran crisis, and U.S.-China relations. Given the tone of the Obama-Romney town hall meeting and the critical U.S. and global security issues on the agenda, the foreign policy debate promises to be equally intense.
On October 24, Foreign Policy at Brookings, in association with Foreign Policy magazine, will host a discussion on the issues raised during the next presidential debate. Susan Glasser, editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy magazine, will moderate the panel, which will include Brookings Senior Fellows Robert Kagan, Suzanne Maloney, Kenneth Lieberthal and Bruce Riedel. Brookings Vice President Martin Indyk will offer opening remarks.
After the program, the panelists will take audience questions.
Please register for this event here.
15. Human Rights Perspectives on American Elections: Free or Fair?, Thursday October 25, 12:00 PM – 1:20 PM, AU Washington College of Law
Venue: AU Washington College of Law, 4801 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20016, WCL Room 602
Speakers: Patrick Merloe, Marcia Johnson-Blanco, Hadar Harris
What does it mean to have ‘free and fair elections,’ and will the 2012 elections in the United States be free and fair? The Center for Human Rights & Humanitarian Law and the Program on Law & Government will host a discussion on international standards of free and fair elections as viewed from a human rights perspective, and examine how these standards apply to election policy in the United States. Specific topics will include human rights-related issues emerging in domestic and international elections, such as transparency, fairness of process, the right to political opinion, and the right to participate in government. Speakers will also address the current obstacles to full enfranchisement in the upcoming U.S. elections, such as voter identification laws and restrictions on early and absentee ballots. This event will feature Patrick Merloe, Senior Associate and Director of Electoral Programs of the National Democratic Institute, and Marcia Johnson- Blanco, Co-Director of the Voting Rights Project of the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law. The discussion will be moderated by Hadar Harris, Executive Director of the Center for Human Rights & Humanitarian Law.
RSVP for this event to humlaw@wcl.american.edu.
16. Women After the Arab Awakening: Making Change, Thursday October 25, 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Saul Room/Zilkha Lounge
Speakers: Tamara Cofman Wittes, Lina Ahmed, Marianne Ibrahim, Randa Naffa, Souad Slaoui
Women played an integral role in the Arab uprisings, and the continued empowerment of women will be critical to the emergence of democracy in the region. Gender rights and women’s equality are among the most consequential and controversial issues facing newly elected governments across the Arab world. Some fear that the election of Islamist parties will turn back the clock on women’s rights, but others see more open politics as a new opportunity for efforts to achieve equality in the Arab world. How has the Arab awakening affected the women of the region? How are activists and politicians seeking progress for women in this uncertain and evolving landscape?
On October 25, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, with Vital Voices Global Partnership and the Project on Middle East Democracy, will host activists from Morocco, Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan who are advocating for women’s rights in a variety of ways: combating child marriage, working to repeal gender-discriminatory laws, promoting gender equality in the new Egyptian constitution, and protecting the rights of women workers. Brookings Senior Fellow Tamara Cofman Wittes, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, will provide introductory remarks and moderate the discussion.
After the program, the panelists will take audience questions.
Register for this event here.
17. Playing with Fire: Pakistan at War with Itself, Thursday October 25, 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Suite 605
Speaker: Pamela Constable
Pamela Constable, Foreign Correspondent and Former Deputy Foreign Editor, The Washington Post
RSVP for this event to security@gwu.edu.
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Why riot?
You don’t have to be a foreign affairs expert to see that there are political reasons for the Innocence of Muslims-inspired protests around the Muslim world in what has been termed “the video incident.” America’s recent wars in predominantly Muslim countries have heightened tensions. U.S. support for Israel also contributes.
But this can’t be just about politics. The video offended Muslim sentiments. If these protests were really about politics, why were they not more widespread and why did they not take on a more explicitly political guise?
Americans find it difficult to understand the religious justification for these protests. Either they are reduced to cultural relativism (“things are different in the Muslim world”) 0r they wonder if Muslims are so weak in their faith that any offense to their prophet pushes them to mass violence. Neither produces interesting answers.
What Westerners fail to appreciate is the cultural milieu in which Islam originated and propagated. Islam emerged from a pre-existing oral tradition of poetry. The influence is apparent in the Holy Qur’an, which often reads like poetry:
Say, “I seek refuge in the Lord of mankind,
The Sovereign of mankind,
The God of mankind,
From the evil of the retreating whisperer –
Who whispers [evil] into the breasts of mankind –
From among the jinn [spirits] and mankind.” (Surat an-Nas 114)
Recitation of the Qur’an is art, and those with the Qur’an memorized are respected. In early Islam, that was the only way to experience the Qur’an. It is believed Muhammad was illiterate, so when he received the Qur’an from the Angel Gabriel he memorized it and taught it to his followers. The sunnah, or the large body that encompasses the words and actions of the Prophet and some of his close followers, was also initially memorized and passed along orally.
Memorization and oral transmission were the privileged modes of gaining and disseminating knowledge. How was it to be determined whose oral transmission was legitimate? What would be done if two people remembered something differently? In the case of the sunnah an incredibly complex system developed for evaluating the legitimacy of different ahadith (pieces of the sunnah, particular stories about things the Prophet said or did). Was it possible that a certain transmitter could have had contact with another in order to pass along a hadith? Did both transmitters live in the same era and were they known to have traveled in the same region?
The issue of legitimacy also brought into question each transmitter’s character. Ignoring other variables, one might trust what one transmitter said the Prophet did over another if the first had a reputation for honesty while the second was known to lie. The legitimacy of the information a transmitter passed along was intimately connected to the transmitter’s reputation: how honest he was, how often he prayed, whether his teachings were consistent. Character is vital to legitimacy in the Islamic tradition.
The connection between the legitimacy of the content and the character of the content’s originator or transmitter implies that criticism of the latter calls the former into question. If a transmitter is not of high moral standing, there are implications for whether the ahadith he transmitted are considered legitimate. Insulting the Prophet, the original transmitter, calls into question his message, or all of Islam.
In the Shi’i tradition a religious leader’s character is very important, especially in a Muslim’s choice of Ayatollah. Because of the occultation of the last imam, Ayatollahs are selected to demonstrate how a Muslim should live her life until the last imam returns. The importance of an Ayatollah modeling good character is captured in the title given to a well-respected Ayatollah, marja-e-taqlid, which translates as “source of emulation.”
This is strange from the Judeo-Christian perspective, which privileges text. Jews are exigent about error-free copying of the Torah. Western culture worries about plagiarism. Improperly expropriating text undermines an author’s credibility and may call into question everything she has written. We have little need to worry about an author’s character to decide whether a text is valid or not.
It is therefore not surprising that the Judeo-Christian tradition includes insulting, teasing, or at least recognizing the faults of religious leaders without it negatively reflecting on their mission. In the Jewish tradition, many of the prophets are far from moral perfection, but their character flaws do not affect the sanctity of their purpose. Most Christians had a good laugh at the late-night TV jokes about Jesus’ possible wife. The ancient Greeks often mocked the gods.
There is of course no justification for the killings associated with the recent demonstrations. But the importance of transmitters in preserving the Islamic tradition provides some insight into the anger a number of Muslims are feeling around the world, an anger that so many in the West cannot begin to understand.
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