Kosovo elections preview: opportunity knocks

Kosovo national elections will take place tomorrow, the first parliamentary poll since independence.  Unlike Egypt, Haiti and Ivory Coast, the Kosovo government seems likely to gain in legitimacy and authority from a relatively well-organized and executed effort, one in which substantial numbers of Albanians, Serbs and other minorities are expected to choose among a wide array of political options.

By all reports, the campaign and the election-day organization have been good, maybe even very good.  Planning has included 23,000 certified election observers.  Polling places are expected to be available in Serb enclaves; Serbs are guaranteed 10 seats in a 120-seat Parliament but can win more.  Other minorities also get 10.  The system is “open list” with the opportunity to select five candidates.  Women make up one-third of the lists and one-third of the unicameral legislature.

The campaign has been vigorous but peaceful, with eight Serb parties among the 29 contesting the elections.  Two new Albanian parties—the more radical Self Determination and the activist but more centrist New Spirit—joined the competition with more established political forces and their offshoots.  The press in Kosovo is ranked “partly free” by Freedom House, due in large part to weaknesses in the legal environment.  But there do not appear to have been any special restrictions associated with the elections.

The main issues of concern to voters, according to the National Democratic Institute’s pre-election polling, are the economy/jobs and corruption, which are also the two areas in which the most dissatisfaction was expressed.  “Political stability,” whatever that means, is a fairly distant third.  Health and education are viewed as improving.  The only institutions scoring at all well were civil society organizations, though the parliament, government and political parties did better than the new municipalities and the ministry of community and returns.

Participation is expected to be strong in most communities, with the possible and important exception of the Serbs who live in the North, where Belgrade’s influence is most strongly felt.  If tomorrow is peaceful and participation is strong, it will be an excellent sign of interest and even confidence in the political process.

These elections are an opportunity.  If they come off well, they will be an important step in validating Kosovo’s institutions as representative and democratic in advance of upcoming negotiations with Belgrade and give Pristina an important claim to international recognition, regardless of who wins or loses.

Why should Americans care about elections in such a small and out of the way place?  With U.S. leadership, NATO went to war over Kosovo in 1999, and we thereafter spent billions to station forces there and help build the Kosovo state.  As we consider what to do in Afghanistan (as well as Iraq), it is at least modestly gratifying to hear that such efforts sometimes succeed, at least in part.