Transition begins today

The night was quieter than most of us expected, and the day so far as well.  Massive crowds in Tahrir square, big enough to scare off the thugs, who likely have been reined in a bit. They embarrassed the regime a good deal on Wednesday.  The army also did a bit more yesterday to keep pro- and anti-Mubarak demonstrators apart:

Regime focus yesterday was on detaining journalists and human rights activists, in an apparent effort to prevent the word from getting out about what Mubarak was up to.  Dumb move that one:  it guaranteed a lot of media attention in the U.S.–the press likes nothing better than covering themselves, and the human rights advocates will no doubt want to write about their treatment in custody.  Nothing done yesterday seems to have restricted the flow of information, and the regime did nothing as dramatically bad as what it did on Wednesday. Go figure.

Al Jazeera English in particular is doing a great job, focusing mainly on people actually involved in the demonstrations.  I turned on CNN for a comparison:  they were interviewing luminaries like Rudy Giuliani and Barbara Walters.  My how the mighty (CNN as well as Giuliani and Walters, who had nothing to say) have fallen!

President Mubarak is saying he is ready to go but fears chaos if he does.  I am starting to believe him, and the New York Times is reporting that negotiations are under way for Vice President Suleiman and the army to take over.  No one seems to have convinced Mubarak to sign on yet, but I’m not sure I’ll be surprised if he does. If he wants to die in Egypt, it may be the only way.

Even if he signs today on the dotted line, there is a long way to go yet.  The current parliament was elected in fraudulent, unfair and unfree elections in December.  The constitution not only gives the president extraordinary powers but also requires that a new one pass muster in parliament.

Someone has to figure out a way to give Egypt a new parliament, one elected freely and fairly (with substantially fewer than the 96% of seats said to be controlled by Mubarak’s party).  That new parliament would then fix the constitution and proceed with election of a new president, and maybe of still another parliament.

This is a tall order to get done by September, when presidential elections were scheduled.  But there is no limit to what can be done if there is good will.  So far, there isn’t.  Mubarak and Suleiman are still both blaming foreign agitators for Egypt’s troubles, and abuses by the security forces are still rampant, even if they are not actually beating Egyptians up quite as much as earlier in the week.

Today is supposed to be “departure” day. Whether Mubarak leaves the presidency today or not, February 4 is likely to be seen as marking the departure from an autocratic regime and the beginning of a difficult, and lengthy, transition to democracy.