UN 1, Gaddafi 0 but no one knows how much time is left

It didn’t come as fast as I would have liked, but the Security Council resolution on Libya is vigorous and detailed.  Carne Ross’ analysis is on the mark, even if I count as a virtue the fact that it mentions international peace and security (the traditional justification for Security Council action) and he likes the Responsibility to Protect (internal conflict) approach.  Both are there, so neither of us is disappointed.

The referral to the International Criminal Court is the big novelty under this resolution “1970”, and it comes with a deadline:  the ICC prosecutor is to brief the UNSC in two months time.  I hope this is not taken as a pro forma effort, but as something more serious.

The asset ban and travel freeze are clearly more than pro forma, including establishment of implementation mechanisms and the possibility of adding names to the lists.

Missing is the no-fly zone (NFZ).  But that would not have been worth any delay in what has been approved.  NFZs are difficult and expensive to implement, and doing so would allow Gaddafi and his minions to argue that his opponents are just the leading edge of foreign intervention.

With the departure of the ferry carrying their Embassy staff, the Americans seem to have dropped their reluctance to speak and act forcefully. U.S. unilateral sanctions went into effect Friday, but I am still wondering where the Sixth Fleet is.  I hope it is close by and that Gaddafi knows it. Menace is more important than action at this point.  It will be much better if the Libyans solve this problem on their own.

They have apparently set up a kind of provisional government in Benghazi under former Justice Minister Mustafa Abdel-Jalil.  I’m no fan of former Justice Ministers from regimes like Gaddafi’s, but if he genuinely has broad support among the rebels, that’s enough for me for the moment.  The main thing is for Gaddafi’s opponents to remain united.  Any fragmentation at this point would seriously weaken them, something they cannot afford.

We need to see the end of the Colonel.  How and when that will occur is anyone’s guess.  He could save all of us a lot of trouble, but that has never been his habit.

PS:  Blake Hounshell of Foreign Policy has kindly pointed to reporting that suggests less than unanimity in the former Justice Minister’s backing.  The main thing, as I said before, is that Gaddafi’s opponents remain united.