Yemen at stake

President Saleh has refused to sign the agreement to step down in 30 days in return for immunity from prosecution.  This is not really a surprise.  He is notoriously slippery and has wiggled out of several previous promises to give up power.

Now the question is what the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will do.  Its oil-endowed members (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman) were to be the guarantors of the agreement the GCC had negotiated with Saleh and the opposition political parties.  Individually and collectively they presumably have a good deal of leverage over Saleh.  Will the GCC show its teeth, as it did by deploying troops in Bahrain?  Or will it roll over and play dead, leaving Saleh to see if he can defeat the protests, now that he has rejected the deal with the political parties?

It is easy to imagine that Saleh is watching Bashar al Assad’s repression of protests in Syria and Muammar Gaddafi’s war against Libya’s population and wondering, “why can’t I survive if they can?”  Of course the right answer to that question is that none of them should remain in power:  each has delegitimized his own regime and by all rights should step aside.

But life is not often fair.  I am reasonably confident that Gaddafi is finished, sooner or later, but the jury is still out on Bashar, who seems willing to imitate if not rival his father in killing and arresting Syrians.  Saleh has so far been less heavy-handed in Yemen, but I wouldn’t put it past him to double down and try to intimidate the protesters.  They have proven adept and savvy so far; let’s hope they can maintain their good humor, massive presence and commitment to nonviolence.  They merit success.