Red card

The High Representative for Dayton peace agreement implementation in Bosnia has submitted two reports to the Secretary General, one more a routine update and the other finding that one of the two entities constituting Bosnia and Herzegovina, Republika Srspska (RS), is in breach of the Dayton agreements.  HiRep Valentin Inzko adds:

The recent decisions taken by the RS authorities represent the most serious violation of the GFAP [General Framework Agreement for Peace] since it was signed more than 15 years ago.

This is the more or less the equivalent of giving Republika Srpska a red card.  The problem of course is that RS’s sin is refusing to recognize the authority of the referee, by calling a referendum that will reject his decisions and those of Bosnia’s state court.

This puts Inzko, and the international community, in a difficult spot. What would a soccer ref do if a player refused to leave the field? What if the player suspected the referee did not have sufficient force or sanctions to make it happen?  And the player knew half the stadium was full of people ready to back him up, while the other half would not want to fight?

The issue was raised at my discussion this afternoon at the Woodrow Wilson Center with Jim O’Brien and Gerald Knaus, two experienced Bosnia hands for whom I have a great deal of respect.  Nida Gelazis was in the chair.

Gerald argued that Inzko is playing into Dodik’s hands by making a big deal about the referendum.   We should oppose it in a more low key way, saying that it violates Dayton and would only delay progress on the EU accession project.  Inzko should not try to stop it, since he doesn’t have the power, but he should make it clear we will not respect its results.

Jim O’Brien wisely suggested that we make clear to Belgrade that its path to the EU will be encumbered if Dodik crosses whatever the international community decides is its red line.  He also suggested we should focus on the consequences of Dodik’s move, which will hurt prospects for trade and investment.  We should continue to build consensus on technical issues to recreate the positive dynamic evident in the case of visa liberalization policy.

I imagine that the internationals will find a way to muddle through this one, yielding a bit more ground to RS while trying to reassure the Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims to the American press) that it really doesn’t make much difference.  That is basically what we’ve been doing for years–accommodating Serb and Croat nationalists while soothing those among more Dayton-friendly forces who might want to stand up and object.  In my view, this is taking us down a path to state dissolution, which is the RS’s stated objective.

The real problem will come the day the Bosniaks decide to engage rather than yield.  I have no idea when that will be.