Here’s another idea for Bosnia

One question plagues every discussion of Bosnia:  do Bosnians want to live in the same country?  Nationalist leaders of two of the main ethnic groups (Croat and Serb) seem to be saying “no,” while most Bosniaks (that’ s Muslim to most Americans, but without the religious connotation) say “yes.”  They are the largest group (44% of the pre-war population).

What would happen if they voted on it?

Of course they did vote on it once, in 1992.  The result was 98% for Bosnian independence, with many Serbs boycotting (turnout was 68%).  The rules then–and now–are that 50% wins (55% if you are in Montenegro, ask the Europeans why).  Boycotts don’t invalidate the results.

Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik has lately pumped up the idea of a new referendum, which he wanted to conduct in the RS on an obviously biased and contentious proposition that would seek to delegitimize institutions of the Bosnian state as well as the international community representative in Sarajevo, thus laying the groundwork for an independence bid.  But there is no reason why any referendum on a question concerning the country as a whole should be conducted only in the RS, from which many Bosniaks and Croats were ethnically cleansed and where they still find themselves unwelcome.

This leads me to wonder out loud what the results of a new referendum might be, but one conducted in the whole country on a serious proposition:  “do you want to live in a Bosnia and Herzegovina that can become a member of the European Union?”  That is the real choice Bosnians face:  to split up the state and give up hopes of joining the EU, or stick together and get into the EU some time in the next decade or so.

Of course I wouldn’t wonder out loud if I didn’t think I knew the outcome.  I believe well over 50% of Bosnians would vote “yes” in a free and fair referendum of this sort:  easily 90% of the more or less 50% of the country that is today Bosniak, plus an overwhelming majority of those refusing to identify ethnically and significant percentages (I’d guess close to half on the proposition as I’ve formulated it) of the Croats and Serbs.

You’ll be able to tell right away if I am correct:  nationalist Croats and Serbs will reject this whole-country referendum proposal, knowing well that they would lose. Some Bosniaks will also not like the idea, concerned that it will exacerbate interethnic relations.  I may even get a cross-ethnic coalition to oppose me.  That would be gratifying, in a perverse kind of way.

Lest there be any doubt about my own views:  I know full well no referendum of this sort will be held, and I think breakup of Bosnia would be a disaster for the Balkans and for Europe.  It would result in creation of Croat and Serb statelets that the “mother” countries would not want to absorb and an isolated Islamic republic in central Bosnia whose population would radicalize in an effort to survive (and attract Islamic support) in difficult circumstances.  There is no prospect of an easy agreement on the borders of these statelets, so violence in the process of breakup would be likely.  Nor would it be possible to contain the breakup to Bosnia.  Muslim-majority areas of Sandžak in Serbia would grow restive, not to mention possible echoes in Kosovo, southern Serbia and Macedonia.

As I’ve said before in the Kosovo context, best to keep Pandora’s box closed.  But that should not prevent us from being realistic about the horrors that lie inside.