Making Bashar al Assad history

As Marc Lynch points out in a tweet this morning, the region is belatedly beginning to react to regime violence against protesters in Syria.  Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have denounced it and have withdrawn their ambassadors, along with Qatar and Kuwait.  Turkey is sending its foreign minister to Damascus tomorrow with a “final warning.”  The Arab League has expressed “growing concern.”

Blake Hounshell at Foreign Policy is predicting the downfall not only of Bashar al Assad but of the whole regime:

The whole Baathist system has to come down, and it probably will. The only questions now are how long it will take, and how much more innocent blood will be shed in the process.

I hope he is correct, but it won’t happen unless the pressure builds.

Let’s leave aside the remarkable hypocrisy of Bahrain and Saudi Arabia denouncing violence against demonstrators.  They are more than welcome to join the international chorus against it in Syria, even if they jointly repressed the demonstrations this spring in Bahrain.  The denunciations already make some difference, as they are necessarily the first step on the road to more vigorous action.  What more can Syria’s neighbors do that will make a difference?

Andrew Tabler and David Schenker discussed the options early in July.  Those that have not been tried yet include depriving Bashar al Assad of revenue by blocking oil exports, expanding sanctions on his businessman cronies, referring him to the International Criminal Court, and encouraging Syrian army defections.  Most of the rest of what they recommend has already been tried, including denunciation by UN human rights experts, enhanced relations with the opposition and more vocal alignment with the Syrian people.

The brutal fact is that whether Bashar al Assad falls, and how long it takes, depends more on the wisdom and fortitude of the Syrians than on anything else.  So far, they have been remarkable.  A journalist who has been there and talked with the protesters recently has assured me that they look even better up close.

The two key “pillars of the regime” remain the army and the business communities in Aleppo and Damascus.   If one or both of these crumbles, Bashar al Assad is history.

PS: The LA Times put up this video, allegedly recorded in Idlib yesterday: