They lead, we support

The European Union Institute for Strategic Studies asked “what’s next and whose job is it?” for transformations in the Arab world.  Here is how I replied:

It is not for Europeans and Americans to lead. It is the citizens whose rights have been abridged who have to in the first instance lay claim to better.

First and foremost the next step is the job of the Arabs:  the Tunisians, Egyptians and Libyans in the first wave, the Yemenis and Syrians in what I hope will be a second wave.  They know what they want better than we do, and judging in particular from the Tunisians and Libyans they are quite capable of setting the direction.  The situation in Egypt is much less clear, as the protesters settled for a military takeover and are now having second thoughts, even as others try to pull Egypt in a nationalist direction that most of the revolutionaries would not want to pursue.

That said, they are going to need help.  It seems to me that interests dictate that Europe take the lead on Libya and Tunisia while the Americans play a stronger role in Yemen and Egypt.  The odd one out is Syria; sustaining the protest effort there for long enough to bring about real change will require commitment from both the Americans and the Europeans.  In all these cases, Western influence will have to contend with Arab efforts that may sometimes pull in opposite directions.

Nor should the West forget the need for reform elsewhere:  Bahrain of course, but also Saudi Arabia.  The ageing Saudi monarchy (not just the ageing king) and the ferocious crackdown in Bahrain pose real questions about longer-term stability.  The Americans stand on the front line with both of these questions, as they also do with Iran.  There is no reason why the spring should only be Arab.

Barack Obama, like his predecessor, has made it clear that “all men are created equal and endowed with inalienable rights” does not stop at the water’s edge.  It is written in our political DNA and we carry it abroad, like it or not.  But the imperative does not stop at the ideal.  If we care about the long-term security of our energy supplies, we’ll have to be ready to support those who cry out for their rights and avoid being caught on the wrong side of history.

But it is not for Europeans and Americans to lead.  It is the citizens whose rights have been abridged who have to in the first instance lay claim to better.  We can only support their efforts.  And we’ll have our hands full doing even that much.