A step in the right direction

Nadim Shehadi argues in The Guardian

Syrian political society will emerge and show its real face only after the regime is gone, and not before. This will not be a phoenix rising from the ashes, rather a battered society that will be trying to find its way after a long and dark period.

Until then, he advises we stop calling the opposition “the opposition” (because doing so legitimizes the regime) and lower our expectations to about as close to zero as possible, since no Syrian can reveal his true political identity without serious risk.

Fortunately, the Syrian opposition seems not to be taking Shehadi’s advice.  Instead it formed a Syrian National Council on Sunday in Istanbul, whose chair outlined its purposes:

…[to] achieve the goals of the revolution to topple the regime, including all of its components and leadership, and to replace it with a democratic pluralistic regime.

Admittedly, this is not yet much of a program, and the people ready to speak openly for the Syrian National Council at present appear all to be expatriates, even if it is claimed that the Local Coordinating Committees that organize demonstrations inside Syria were represented in Istanbul.

But it is vital that the Syrians create something that can be viewed internationally and internally as a legitimate alternative to Bashar al Assad.  If diaspora Syrians can help provide the alternative, all the better, even if their role is likely to decrease in the future.

No one watching the course of events in Libya and Egypt can doubt the importance of minimal coherence and legitimacy in the leadership of a rebellion.  Libya had such a body, now called the National Transitional Council and recognized widely as the legitimate governing authority.  Egypt did not.  As a result, the protesters acquiesced in turning over the transition to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which has proven an infelicitous choice from the perspective of those who forced Hosni Mubarak to step down.

The Syrian National Council has a tough job ahead.  Some Syrians have begun to take up arms against the regime, which has not hesitated to use indiscriminate force against the protesters.  They cannot expect foreign military help.  NATO is in no mood for another Libya.  There is no demand for it in the Arab world, and the Russians won’t let a Security Council resolution authorize it because of their longstanding alliance with Syria, which includes a naval base at Latakia.  While sanctions are taking their toll on the Syrian regime, Iran is doing what it can to relieve its friends in Damascus and ensure that they survive.

Syria is a complex society, with ethnic, sectarian and religious divisions that the Assad regime has long exploited to prevent the emergence of a united opposition.  It will not be easy to keep Kurds and Arabs, Sunni and Shia, Christiansand Muslims on the same wavelength.  That a reasonably united opposition appears now to be emerging is significant, even if Shehadi is correct that the real, battered face of Syria will only emerge after the Assad regime is gone.

Here is a recent (September 28) Al Arabiya report on the demonstrations in Syria: