Arresting developments

Ali Hawar, a friendly Kurdish journalist for Al Rudaw weekly published in Erbil, writes:

A few Days ago Iraqi security forces cracked down on former members of the former ruling Baath party.  Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Maliki defended the crack down and there are rumors that those who were arrested were planing for military coup….

I answered his questions:

1-  Do you think a military coup can happen in Iraq?

DPS:  I imagine a military coup could happen in Iraq, but I personally have no reason to believe that one was being planned.  If the government has evidence against the people it has arrested, I hope it will be presented soon in public.

2-  What does this latest event tell you about the future of Iraq, especially now that the US will defiantly leave at the end of the year?

DPS:  It tells me Iraqis had better learn how to sort out their problems by peaceful means without the Americans around.  Some of the people who were most critical of the American presence in the past are now hoping the Americans will rescue them from what they claim is abuse of power by the Prime Minister.  I might even sympathize with their complaint, but they should have worried a bit more about the American withdrawal they so stridently demanded.  The Americans aren’t being defiant–they are doing what the government in Baghdad has asked them to do.

I imagine the Americans will ask a lot of questions about these arrests, and depending on the answers they may register some objections, but they cannot do a whole lot more than that.  The problems emerging now have  to be settled among Iraqis.

3-  Do you believe this is another scenario from Maliki, so he can show his political power toward his rivals?

DPS:  I don’t really doubt that Maliki fears a coup attempt.  What I don’t know is if he has real reason to fear it.

He has also unquestionably been trying to consolidate his hold on power.  It is up to other political forces in the society to use the means provided by the constitution to respond if they think he is going too far.  The provision in the constitution for formation of regions is one possible route for those who don’t appreciate Baghdad’s behavior.  But the constitutional procedure for a referendum has to be followed.

The main thing is that Iraq stick with the rule of law.  I could be arrested in the U.S., too, maybe wrongfully.  I would have to hire a lawyer and defend myself.  The trouble in Iraq is that the courts are not sufficiently independent to guarantee a fair trial.  A bit more focus on problems like that, and less on who holds what position in which council, would be a good idea.