Nuclear cabal

The big news today is Iran’s progress towards nuclear weapons.  The reports are based on information reported to have been given to the UN-affiliated International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which administers the Non-proliferation Treaty (Iran is a “state party”).

It is the people who gave the information to the IAEA who seem to have leaked the information, which includes details of Iranian efforts not only to obtain the necessary highly enriched uranium but also to learn how to detonate a nuclear weapon.  Foreign assistance from Russia, Pakistan and North Korea is alleged to be involved.

I have no reason to doubt the assertions, but no confirmation either.  The IAEA will not necessarily publish its findings later this week with all the spin that accompanies today’s revelations. It is often more cautious than the Americans like, and presumably today’s leaks are an effort to box the IAEA into taking a hard line.

For what purpose?  My best guess is that the Americans are trying to get the Security Council to go along with ratcheting up the sanctions on Tehran.  While there has been audible saber-rattling from Israel the last few days, I don’t think we can expect that to happen in the lead-up to a real attack.  Israel needs tactical surprise to pull it off.  The rumbling from Israel is also preparation for tougher sanctions, I imagine.

The most interesting aspect of the reports today is the part about foreign assistance.  Those in charge of nonproliferation policy in my past often assumed that no state with nuclear weapons would consciously help another get them.  That assumption has evaporated.  We seem to have a kind of nuclear cabal willing to do things thought anathema in the past.