Showing up is half an election

Egypt’s first post-Mubarak election, run according to astoundingly complex rules, looks as if it passed its first test today: a lot of people showed up.  There will surely be lots of reports of abuses and improprieties, and there are several more rounds to go in the effort to choose members of a parliament whose only clear responsibility is to choose a committee to write a new constitution.  But the big turnout will validate the decision of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) to proceed despite continuing protests against military rule and complaints about the electoral system.  Many Egyptians don’t like the instability that deprives the country of foreign tourists and weakens an already struggling economy.  They voted with their feet today.

One tweep opined before the election:  “…losing an election is far more politically advantageous than boycotting them.”  Unfortunately, some of our dear democratic friends in Egypt seem to have decided the opposite.  Even if they did not boycott, they spent far too much time and energy trying to get people to demonstrations in Tahrir square against the military’s blatant efforts to insulate itself from civilian control rather than getting out the vote and trying to make the elections go their way.

Their fear is that the military is establishing a regime in which it will remain above and apart from civilian authority, unaccountable and protective of its privileges.  Many of the most determined demonstrators also fear that remnants of Hosni Mubarak’s National Democratic Party (NDP) or the Muslim Brotherhood’s newly organized Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) will do well in the elections.  That will almost surely be the case for the FJP, which has the advantage of a well-ensconced infrastructure, great discipline and a history of determined opposition to a regime that fell less than a year ago.

It is difficult to say you are in favor of pushing the military out of power and at the same time oppose the elections that are a prerequisite for pushing the military out of power.  It is time for secularist democrats to realize that organization and coherence count.  They are unlikely to win big in any event, but they would surely do better if they focused more on grassroots organizing and less on challenging the SCAF in the piazza.  That will be especially important for the presidential elections next year, where fortunately the main protagonists appear to be from the moderate middle of the political spectrum.

Democracy is a long-term game:  showing up is half an election, but an election is just a moment in a decade-long transition.  The important thing is to put in place a mechanism that people regard as legitimate and useful, one that can be used many times in the future.  It will be great for Egypt if these elections lead in that direction.