More thunder, no lightning

The UN General Assembly today passed a resolution supporting the Arab League plan for Syria, which would have Bashar al Assad step aside from his presidency and turn over power to his vice president, who would form a broad coalition government and initiate a democratic transition.  The vote was 137 to 12, which is pretty lopsided even in the UNGA, where lopsided votes are common.

The opponents were:  Belarus, Bolivia, China, Cuba, DPRK, Ecuador, Iran, Nicaragua, Russia, Syria, Venezuela, Zimbabwe.  This is a crew that needs a name:  something like the antidemocrats, but snappier.

So what practical effect will this have?  Hard to say, but the legal effect is nil.  UNGA resolutions are like preseason football:  the games may be well played and show off talent, but they have no direct impact on the standings.  Only UN Security Council resolutions have legal effect.

But legal effect isn’t everything and doesn’t guarantee implementation either.  The important thing is that the “international community” has made an appropriate noise in response to Bashar al Assad’s military assault on Syria’s citizens.  This will weaken Bashar’s position both internationally and within Syria and give inspiration to his opponents, who will also bemoan international community ineffectiveness.

The real question is what should be done now.  Some will want to resort to military intervention or arming the Syrian Free Army.  This is a serious error in my book.  The worst outcome for the U.S. is a prolonged civil war in Syria, which could have a destabilizing impact on Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey and more widely.  “Safe areas” and “humanitarian corridors” would, in the absence of Syrian government cooperation, require major military intervention.

As Mona Yacoubian, Randa Slim and Aram Nerguizian were at pains to make clear this morning at a Stimson/Middle East Institute Event, there are diplomatic and political courses of action that still need to be played out:

• The U.S. should lead on getting a “Friends of Syria” group up and running;
• The Arab League and Turkey should lead on pressing the Syrian opposition to unify;
• Sanctions implementation needs to be tightened, especially by the Arab League;
• The U.S. and Turkey need to court Russian support, on grounds that their interests require a good relationship with whatever comes after Bashar;
• The Syrian opposition has to work on peeling away Sunni and Christian merchant, as well as military, support for the regime.

As Randa Slim noted, what helps the regime is fear of instability on the one hand and Islamism on the other.  These fears would get worse with military intervention, not better.  We need more thunder, no lightning.

PS:  Somehow this “Dancing and chanting around an independence flag in Qudaysa, Damascus” tweeted by @LeShaque and retweeted by Robert Mackey grabs me this morning. It is a lot more expressive than the important, if dull, session of the UNGA yesterday and reminds us of what the resolution is really about: