Maliki wins another bet

Nouri al Maliki, the prime minister orginally chosen in 2006 because he and his Dawa party were regarded as too weak to threaten the bigger fish of Iraqi politics, is improbably completing his sixth year in office (give or take a month or two) with another relative success:  the Arab League Summit he hosted this week in Baghdad.  It marks the reemergence of Iraq as a regional player, one which borders both Syria and Iran, the West’s two big preoccupations in the Middle East these days.

While the Western press is underlining that fewer than half the 22 heads of state attended the summit, the Iraqis will be glad to have gotten 10 of them to a security-handicapped Baghdad, including the Emir of Kuwait.  That’s significant, not only because of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990 but also because relations between the two countries were tense until recently.

Also significant is the absence of the other Gulf heads of state, who want to see better treatment of Sunnis in Iraq.  Boycotts are not my style of diplomacy–they’d have done better to attend and complain.  But I suppose the message was clear enough.

The main substantive issue was Syria.  The Arab League is now backing Kofi Annan’s plan, which to Baghdad’s satisfaction backs off the demand that Bashar al Assad step down.  Instead it talks about “an inclusive Syrian-led political process to address the legitimate aspirations and concerns of the Syrian people.”  Anyone who has followed Maliki’s elastic interpretation of his domestic political commitments over the past year–in particular to his putative coalition partners Iraqiyya and the Kurdish bloc–will understand immediately that this language will not constrain him to insist that Bashar has to go.

That said, it is not really Iraq’s role, or even the Arab League’s, to push Bashar aside.  That role belongs mainly to the Russians, who have so far protected him from a UN Security Council resolution.  They are showing signs of impatience with their protégé, who is not looking so reliable these days.  The Americans need to convince the Russians that they have better chances of maintaining their port access and arms sales in Syria with a successor who can last rather than a wobbly Bashar.

In the wake of the Summit, Iraq will take over the presidency of the Arab League from Qatar.  This will put Baghdad in a decisive role vis-a-vis Syria during the period in which a denouement is likely to occur.  Iraq will want to make sure that the successor regime in Damascus is one that does not feed Sunni insurgency in Iraq and treats Alawis gently.

Baghdad will face enormous challenges if Bashar al Assad does step down.  The West will look to the Arab League for answers to difficult questions:  how will law and order in Syria be maintained?  What will have to be done to help it revive its flagging economy?  Where will the necessary relief come for what are now likely more than a million refugees and displaced people?  Iraq, not far itself from having been a basket case, will have a major role fixing another broken state.

But those challenges lie in the future.  For the moment, Maliki can enjoy his earnings from what was a high stakes bet.