Iraq watchers, watch this

The National Democratic Institute (NDI) April 2012 Iraq polling sheds expected but clear light on the political situation there:  especially among Shia Iraqis and in Baghdad, Prime Minister Maliki is a hit.  Among Kurds in the North and Sunnis in the West, that is far less the case.  While commentary in Washington has been mostly negative since completion of the U.S. withdrawal at the end of 2011, an increasing percentage of Iraqis appreciate Maliki and think the country is heading in the right direction.

There are of course things that could upset the trends, and NDI explicates those:

  • Failure to address jobs and basic services concerns
  • Sunni insecurities intensify
  • Disaffected Shias shifting support
  • Ability for opposition groups to emerge and build a strategic campaign
  • North’s divisions with Baghdad intensify

But so far, Maliki has a lot to stack up to his credit.  Chosen prime minister because he looked weaker than the alternatives, he is proving that he has the vital requirement of a democratic politician:  approval (and presumably votes at the next election).  The big question is whether he will use his improved position to consolidate democracy in Iraq or undermine it.

Daniel Serwer

Share
Published by
Daniel Serwer

Recent Posts

Nuclear Iran – facts, goals and opportunity 

President Trump’s decision to kill the Iran nuclear deal was an obvious failure. Lack of…

2 days ago

Winning the war with equanimity

As I prepare to leave Kyiv Wednesday, here are notes on issues not covered in…

1 week ago

Ukraine’s opportunities and threats

Western appeasement would be a serious mistake. Ending Putin's threat to Ukraine will prevent war…

1 week ago

Ukraine’s strengths and weaknesses

Whatever the strengths and weaknesses on the Ukrainian side, Moscow will not implement whatever it…

1 week ago

Culture, religion, and education in Ukraine

We shouldn't expect world class museums, performances, and universities. When we find them, they merit…

1 week ago

Rebuilding Ukraine: Hopes and Challenges

I'll be speaking at the Kyiv School of Economics Monday, also via Zoom. Please join:…

2 weeks ago