A letter to Bill Burns

People sometimes ask what I say to my colleagues in the State Department about Balkans issues.  It’s often difficult to answer, since I usually talk with them, though a lot less often than some people may imagine.  But a queasy feeling of things coming apart moved me last week to write a note to Bill Burns, the deputy secretary.  Here is what I said:

While I realize the Balkans are not anywhere near the top of your “do” list, even within Europe, I fear things could come apart there. Washington needs to ensure that does not happen.  With the likely formation of a new, more nationalist governing coalition in Belgrade, forceful steps are needed that only Washington can inspire.  At stake are achievements that have protected the lives and well being of people who regard the United States as their friend and ally.

There are three places action is needed:

1. Bosnia:  I won’t urge you to get involved in Bosnia’s constitutional issues, as there have already been three U.S.-sponsored failures.  Only the Bosnians working together are going to be able to modify the Dayton state so that it can qualify for European Union membership.  But we need to ensure in the meanwhile that Bosnia does not come apart.  The EU should end its growing inclination to negotiate membership separately with Republika Srpska and move its remaining troops in the country to Brcko, which is the linchpin that holds Bosnia together.
2. Kosovo:  The de facto partition of Kosovo at the Ibar River is a threat to stability not only inside Kosovo but also in Macedonia, Bosnia, Serbia and Cyprus.  A small spark could set off a region-wide conflagration and a series of ethnic partitions.  Key agreements reached in the talks on practical issues remain unimplemented.  We need a concerted US and EU effort to establish Kosovo’s sovereignty in the north in accordance with the Ahtisaari peace plan.  This will require a serious U.S. effort to convince the five remaining EU members who have not yet done so to recognize Kosovo.
3. Serbia:  The end of the Tadic presidency frees Brussels and Washington to press Belgrade for more definitive resolution of issues in Bosnia and Kosovo.  At the same time, both the EU and the US should try to preserve in Serbia a vigorous pro-EU political opposition and civil society committed to maintaining Serbia’s Western ties and blocking Russia’s already outsized influence in Belgrade.

Washington has too many other problems on its plate to do a lot of heavy lifting in the Balkans, where the Europeans should carry most of the burden.  I am not asking much:

• Get the Europeans to deal more with the government in Sarajevo on accession and move their troops to where they will signal serious intent of holding Bosnia together,
• Convince five EU members to recognize Pristina’s sovereignty and implement the Ahtisaari plan in northern Kosovo,
• Maintain a vigorous democratic opposition in Belgrade.

These are steps well within the capability of your able diplomats without major new resources.

With respect and appreciation for your many efforts,