Stay tuned

With Hamas rockets striking near Jerusalem and Israel bombing Gaza and mobilizing ground forces, it looks as if another Gaza war is in the offing.  It is hard to understand how this will benefit either Palestinians or Israelis, but I credit foreignpolicy.com with trying to provide answers.  On the Israeli side, the answer comes in an interview with former general Shlomo Brom, who sees the answer in deterrence:

What I mean by deterrence is manifesting to Hamas and other armed groups that the costs they will pay much outweigh the benefits that they are deriving from the launch of these rockets. And for that, you need from time to time a Cast Lead Operation.

Cast Lead was the name of the last Gaza ground invasion, in the winter of 2008/9.

On the Hamas side, the answers come from Hussein Ibish:

The [rocket] attacks are part of the case for the transfer of paramount leadership away from the exiles and to the Hamas political and military leadership in Gaza, which portrays itself as doing the ruling and the fighting.

He adds:

If the PLO goes forward with its initiative at the United Nations [to push for membership] and Israel and the West react with significant punitive measures, Hamas is better positioned than ever to be the direct political beneficiary. Indeed, it will never have been closer to its cherished aim of seizing control of the Palestinian national movement — and possibly even the PLO itself — from its secular nationalist rivals.

So what we’ve got here is an Israeli need to restore credible deterrence in the lead-up to a January 22 election and a Hamas Gaza interest in gaining political ground, vis-a-vis both its own “external” leadership and the PLO.

War rarely goes according to plan.  The current situation in nearby parts of the Middle East is so fluid and volatile–especially in Egypt, Syria and Jordan–that it is easy to anticipate that there will be unexpected consequences.  Already we’ve seen two supposed taboos–against rocket attacks on Jerusalem and against Syria firing into Israel–violated.  There may be a lot more surprises in store, not only for Israelis and Palestinians but also for Americans and Europeans. Stay tuned.