The referendum is about Morsi

Egypt is voting today and next Saturday on its draft constitution, which President Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists ramrodded through a rump constituent assembly that secularists, Christians, moderate Islamists and others had abandoned.   Most of the opposition seems to be urging a “no” vote, rather than a boycott.  But turnout may be low.  Egypt has had a lot of elections in the last two years.  The rules have been changed to require that people vote in their assigned polling places.  Previously you could vote anywhere.

Morsi won his presidency with only 51% of the vote.  If he loses this referendum, that will be a vote of no confidence from the Egyptian people, who have had a scant two (or three) weeks to consider the question.  Morsi has promised popular election of a new constituent assembly to draft a new constitution within six months thereafter if this one fails to gain majority approval.

What if he wins, as most expect?  Then Egypt is supposed to go to parliamentary elections.  But a win with less than 60% of the vote will send one signal:   Morsi is vulnerable.  A win with more than 70% of the vote will send a different one:  Morsi is in command.  Between 60 and 70%, some will spin it one way, others the other way.  In any event, it will be the parliamentary elections that will determine Egypt’s course, if Morsi in fact surrenders the dictatorial powers he had arrogated to himself.

Apart from the outcome, the conduct of the referendum will count.  Judges are supposed to supervise each polling center.  It is unclear whether enough will be available to do so.  This is presumably one of the reasons Morsi chose to conduct the voting in some governorates this weekend and in others next weekend.  But the opposition is challenging that arrangement in court.  Despite clashes in Alexandria yesterday, polling so far seems to be proceeding, with the usual glitches.  If it becomes disorderly, a great deal will depend on whom Egyptians blame for precipitating problems.

Egypt has careened through a tumultuous transition since Hosni Mubarak stepped down in February 2011.  The best that can be said for the outcome so far is that no one is fully satisfied.  The secularists who mounted the initial demonstrations are disappointed that the result is not full-fledged democracy.  Minorities, especially Egypt’s Coptic Christians, feel ill-treated.  Rich Egyptians and the “remnants” of the old regime feel under attack.  Poor Egyptians have seen little tangible benefit.  The economy is on the ropes.  The Muslim Brotherhood sees threats behind every demonstrator.  The Salafists regard even the draft constitution as insufficiently Islamic.

I am hoping the constitution is defeated.  That would give Egypt the opportunity for a more inclusive do-over.  It would also teach Morsi that he needs to exert himself to be the president of all Egyptians.  The process by which the current constitutional draft was written failed to be inclusive and transparent.  Even an overwhelming vote in its favor will not erase the hard feelings that has engendered.

The odds are against defeat.  If the referendum is approved, the only immediate recourse is the parliamentary election.  The opposition needs to learn quickly the tricks of the electoral process if it is to do well.  It has consistently failed to do so.  Competing with the Muslim Brotherhood will require grassroots campaigning, not unruly demonstrations.  It will also require opposition collaboration and unity.

Is Egypt headed back to autocracy, or will it develop a more open and representative political system?  Only time will tell.  Ten years from now, the answer will be clear.  Today nothing is.