Morsi wins, but…

If unofficial results are correct, Egyptian President Morsi won his bet on the new constitution in the first round of the referendum yesterday:  56.5% voted “yes”; 43.5% voted “no.”  The results next weekend are likely to be more favorable, as the voting population will include rural areas that generally back the Muslim Brotherhood.  Yesterday’s voting in half the provinces included Alexandria, where “yes” won, and Cairo, where “no” votes prevailed.

The issue of turnout is unclear.  Al Ahram  says it was 33%, which would be strikingly low.  But the electoral commission claims 50%, which would be respectable but not impressive.  The “party of couch,” as Egyptians call those who abstain from political participation, was in either event large.  The process was for the most part orderly, but riddled with allegations of fraud.  There were no international observers.  Domestic observers were also restricted. 

What happens now?  First there is next Saturday’s vote.  The intervening week is likely to see protests.  If they are peaceful, they may win some “no” votes.  If they are violent, some people may get up off the couch to vote “yes.”  The desire for stability in Egypt seems stronger than interest in restarting the constitution-drafting process, especially in more traditional and poorer rural areas.  Those who oppose the Muslim Brotherhood’s draft would be well-advised to use the week talking with prospective voters and trying to win them over rather than taking their often justified complaints to the street.

Then there will be parliamentary elections within two months after the constitution enters into force.  That is where the opposition must focus its efforts:  unifying its political organization, developing a message with broad popular appeal and getting its voters out to the polls.  Last time around (late 2011 and early 2012), Islamists won more than 70% of the seats, in part due to fragmentation among more secularist forces.  That is the root of current Islamist political dominance, along with the razor-thin election of Morsi.  Depriving them of that dominance in the parliamentary election should be the opposition goal.

Morsi is going to win his referendum bet, likely with more than 60% of the final result.  But the constitution only establishes the rules of the game.  Those tilt towards the Islamists, especially when it comes to judicial decisions and social issues.  The opposition–be it secularist, former regime, moderate Islamist or whatever–still has a chance in the first parliamentary elections of the second Egyptian republic to stymie the more radical Islamist pretensions and begin to win the kind of democratic legitimacy that would enable it to counter Morsi’s still strong position.  Democracy is a process that doesn’t end after the first round.