Enough time

After the progress Serbia recently made toward improving its relationship with Priština, the country’s political leadership has brought forward an unrealistically ambitious platform for its future Kosovo policy. Even a superficial glance at the document suggests that Belgrade is looking to create another Republika Srpska with the potential to destabilize Kosovo at any time. Unsurprisingly, the Kosovo government has dismissed the platform as unacceptable; the Europeans for now seem to be rather cautious.

One reason for the ambitious platform is the praise that Serbian prime minister Ivica Dačić has received from the West for his pragmatic conduct in the negotiations with Hashim Thaçi. Encouraged, Belgrade is likely hoping that Brussels and Washington could be willing to put pressure on Priština to consider at least some of the ideas outlined.  A difference compared to the usual practice is that in this platform Kosovo Serbs who live south of the Ibar river have for the first time been taken into account by a Serbian government.

Parts of the platform can be understood as an attempt to somehow accommodate divergent views and interests of various stakeholders. One of these is undoubtedly the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC), whose leadership has already blasted the government for Dačić’s constructive approach to his ongoing talks with Thaçi. Given the level of influence and popularity that SPC enjoys among Serbs, domestic politicians would hardly dare to openly defy it.

The platform also helps two main parties of the ruling coalition – the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and Dačić’s Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) – create the impression that they are not going to “surrender without fight.”  While they are both nominally pro-EU, a large portion of their voters are opposed to European integration.

Serbian opposition parties have reacted to the platform in a more or less expected fashion.  Dragan Đilas, the new president of the formerly ruling Democratic Party (DS), considers most of its content to be out of touch with reality.   Vojislav Koštunica of the conservative nationalist Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) is basically satisfied with the platform, albeit with some reservation.  The clearly pro-Western Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) insists that the government must finally “tell people the truth about Kosovo” instead of prolonging the agony.

Unlike the Church, politicians, media and far-right extremists, ordinary people appear to have for the most part remained unmoved. This is potentially good news for leading government figures, allowing them to remove a number of controversial elements from the paper.  Dačić has already stressed that the platform is not a “Holy Writ” and therefore can be amended. Likewise, SNS first deputy prime minister Aleksandar Vučić stated shortly after the platform was announced that Serbia must at all costs remain on the path of European integration if it is to avoid economic disaster.

The next round of talks between Dačić and Thaçi is scheduled for January 17.  There is time for the platform to undergo revision before then, but a lot will depend on dynamics within the government itself. Judging from their recent statements, Dačić and Vučić are anticipating changes will be made in time.