The Iran nuclear cliff

It isn’t often that Washington reaches a consensus on Iran, but that seems to be what is happening.  Patrick Clawson urges a generous offer to Iran, to test definitively whether a deal stopping it short of nuclear weapons can be reached.  Suzanne Maloney sees 2013 as the make or break year:

Dennis Ross, Trita Parsi, and Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett had long ago come to the conclusion a big package was needed to woo Tehran from its nuclear ambitions, from widely varying premises.

2013 is the make or break year for the same reason we faced a “fiscal cliff” crisis at the end of the last Congress:  Washington has set itself up for a big decision.  Either we get a deal that prevents Iran from getting nuclear weapons, or the Administration (with ample Congressional support) has committed the United States to go to war.  Suzanne is surely correct that the American people are not “there” yet, but I see that as a good thing:  it gives the Administration maximum negotiating leeway.  Maximum but not infinite:  Congress (Democrats and Republicans) will have to lift sanctions if a deal is reached.  It won’t happen unless the majority is satisfied that the deal blocks Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state.

International Atomic Energy Agency officials are in Tehran today trying to gain access to an Iranian site thought to have been used in the past for nuclear weapons research.  The Americans regard Iran coming clean on those activities as vital to any deal that lets Iran off the sanctions hook.  It is unlikely we’ll have a quick answer to the many questions about Iran’s past activities, but the talks today are important to opening the door.

At the same time, the P5+1 (5 permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) are haggling with Tehran over a date to continue the political-level nuclear talks, which are supposed to convene this month.  The main issue seems to be whether sanctions relief will be on the agenda.  The Americans in particular have wanted to reserve all but the smallest sanctions relief (parts for aircraft) for later on, after seeing real progress on nuclear questions.  The Iranians want sanctions relief up front.

The emerging consensus in Washington in favor of a big package to test Iran’s intentions and reach a definitive conclusion could end years of uncertainty and haggling.  But it also raises the very real possibility of going over the Iran nuclear cliff to war.