There is virtue in clarity

That’s the best I can say for today’s meeting of the Presidents of Serbia and Kosovo.  President Nikolic made it clear that he does not and will never accept the independence of Kosovo.  President Jahjaga made it clear she does not accept anything less.

The issue, as regular readers will know, is not really independence, which is relative and political.  The real issue is sovereignty, which for these purposes is absolute and juridical.  I think of it as based in a monopoly over the legitimate means of violence, recognized by other sovereign states.

If the two presidents remain apart on this issue, I imagine there won’t be many more meetings.  Each meeting, including this one, confirms what everyone in the world–including in Belgrade–knows:  Serbia will not be able to exercise sovereignty (a monopoly over the legitimate means of violence) over Kosovo.  Anyone who thinks it will hasn’t been there in a long time.  It is no surprise that Nikolic didn’t seem keen on continuing to meet.

The internationals will of course insist that the meetings continue at the more productive political level of prime ministers and below.  This is a good idea.  Pristina and Belgrade have made some progress on real issues and need to get to the difficult work of implementing what they have agreed.  It is particularly important that they begin to resolve the vexing problem of northern Kosovo, where Serbia continues to defy the UN Security Council resolution that it incorrectly claims preserves some vague semblance of Serbian sovereignty.

I do not mean to imply that Nikolic’s reassertion of Serbian authority is irrelevant.  To the contrary, a claim of sovereignty over Kosovo’s territory has to be taken very seriously, not only by the Kosovo authorities but also by the international community.  Today it is the NATO-led KFOR presence in Kosovo that prevents this claim from assertion by force.  KFOR wants out.  It is unlikely to remain at all in five years.  If Kosovo is to remain sovereign, it had better figure out some combination of diplomatic, political, military or other means to protect its claim.  It is not that I doubt Serbia’s pledges not to use force.  They are sincere.  But they are also insufficient.

I had visits today and yesterday from two Serbs.  One said Serbia would never recognize Kosovo’s independence.  The other looked forward optimistically to reintegrating the north with the rest of Kosovo, where he is a politician participating in the Pristina institutions.  I suggested they get together for a chat.

It is unlikely to be any more productive than today’s meeting between the two presidents.  But there is virtue in clarity.