Tunisia: stalled

With no constitution written and no date yet for elections, the political transition in Tunisia is stalled. At SAIS’s Thursday discussion of economic decline and political violence in Tunisia, former governor of the Tunisian Central Bank Mustapha Nabli warned that continued political stagnation will condemn Tunisia to a serious economic crisis.

The post-revolutionary transition has neglected the country’s economy.  Inflation reached 6% in 2012, up from 3.5% in 2010.  The budget deficit reached 8% of GDP in 2012, up from a mere 3% in 2010. The slow transition has already cost Tunisia at least 200,000 jobs.  In the absence of firm political leadership, the indicators will continue in this undesirable direction.

The sharp polarization between Islamists and secularists is stalling the transition and obstructing progress on the economic front.  Steve McInerney, executive director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, argued that since coming to power Ennahda has increasingly catered to Islamist radicals while ignoring secularist and Western fears.  Party leader Rashid Ghannouci’s high profile 2011 visit to Washington soon after the revolution brought assurances of moderation.  But the party’s strategy changed thereafter as the Salafists appear to gain strength.  A worrisome video  featuring Ghannouchi strategizing with Salafists on how to drive liberals out of positions of power disturbed secularists.  Since then events have escalated, culminating in the assassination of secularist opposition leader Chukry Beleid and the subsequent dissolution of the government.

Tunisia has more than political instability and an uncertain economic prospect to worry about.  A perfect storm of porous borders, floods of Libyan weapons, Al Qaeda in the Maghreb, and the flow of uprooted militants from France’s Mali intervention increasingly threatens Tunisia’s security. Alexis Arieff, an analyst at Congressional Research Services, pointed to evidence of Tunisia’s role as a transshipment  point for weapons, people and militants to the rest of the region. Skirmishes between Tunisian security forces and militants are on the rise.  Instances of religious-based Salafist violence  are also on the increase.

Nabli claimed that the political stagnation stems from misunderstanding of the October 2011 elections. The elections were meant to establish a constituent assembly, but Ennahda insisted it had a mandate to govern.  Until this fundamental issue is sorted out, it will be difficult to address political differences and move on to taking care of the economy.