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Diminishing returns

Secretary Kerry is getting a lot of ink today for his meetings in Egypt.  He is pushing hard for the economic moves that will make available $4.8 billion from the International Monetary Fund.

Here is what April 6 Movement leader Ahmed Maher, who did not meet with the Secretary, had to say:

Because Eng. Ahmed Maher (the founder and the leader of April 6 movement) couldn’t met with Secretary Kerry yesterday, and didn’t listen to him, also to any representative from youth movements in the meeting, so we send this points  to deliver our message

1.  April 6 Movement supported Morsi in the presidential election after his  promises to all revolutionary movements and political figures about compromise and constitutions and collation government  and electoral law

And now we received a lot of criticism from the people  for supporting Morsi

April 6 movement helping provide Morsi’s margin on victory (51%)

2. Violence v. Police Reform

April 6 movement demands its members stick to non-violent protest tactics.

US sold 140,000 rounds of teargas to Egypt to be used against us. Shouldn’t the US point out how that money could be better spent on improving the economy? How does this help?

MOI must stop retaliating: They shoot unarmed protestors. They throw rocks from the tops of buildings (attempted murder). This brings more protesters.

Torture, children in prison, beatings, sexual assault, disappearances.

Police: No justice. No accountability. No DIGNITY. Morsi needs to understand that when the police strip and beat a man on live TV it drives more people to the streets.

Every Egyptian with a smart phone is both a journalist and human rights watchdog.

Morsi must reign in the police and security forces. Minister of Interior was appointed by Morsi – blaming Mubarak won’t work.

3.  Anti-NGO Law

Morsi’s on words as FJP Chair, December 2011:

“… The FJP supports immediate lifting of restrictions on the establishment and registration of NGOs, so interested groups can work legally and transparently…indeed, Egypt needs the support of NGOs especially in the areas of human development, education, technology transfer and public administration.”

Hypocrisy: Human Rights NGOs fought Mubarak for rights of M[uslim] B[rotherhood] prisoners

Hypocrisy: Human Rights Watch fighting for rights of MB detained in UAE

Hypocrisy: Morsi wants foreign investment, but they deny foreign investment in NGOs.

Hypocrisy: The largest illegal, unregistered NGO in Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood

And also Hypocrisy: US abandoned its own NGO workers in Egypt – 13 Egyptians on trial again March 6

This anti-NGO law is designed to shut us down.

4.  Elections

Are they constitutional? Courts struck down parts of the law; Shura never went back to the courts. Why can’t Morsi make sure the law is legal before we spend millions on another election that may be thrown out? Would not that make sense?

International Election Observers (NGOs). The anti-NGO law would prevent them from being in Egypt. In 2011 they raided two of the certified Election Observer NGOs and charged them with felonies.

Rising prices, bad economy, torture, arrests, fatwas, broken promises, NGO crackdown, bad election laws… how well do you think elections will go?

April 6 Youth Movement will not stop until we have bread, freedom and social justice… and DIGNITY.

– US must make human rights THE priority.

– Relations must be more than just Israel… human rights & dignity leads to stability leads to democracy… peace depends on this.

– The agenda must not be only regional security — it must be a DIGNITY agenda.

Two things strike me.  First, the April 6 statement completely ignores the economic situation, which is what Kerry has focused on.  The Egyptian economy is going down the tubes, which is a real threat to the welfare of most of the population.  It is not wise for April 6 to completely ignore issues that will preoccupy most Egyptians.

Second, the April 6 focus on human rights is not mistaken.  President Morsi has taken an authoritarian turn.  The security forces are misbehaving (as they did under Hosni Mubarak), nongovernmental organizations are under pressure and conditions for the parliamentary elections scheduled to start in April are non-ideal (though an American NGO is recruiting international election observers, contrary to the April 6 statement).

April 6 obviously thinks the Secretary is soft-pedaling human rights because of concern about Egypt’s commitment to the peace treaty with Israel.  They may well be correct.  But there is no fundamental incompatibility between the rights-focused agenda April 6 wants and the economy-focused agenda the Secretary is pushing.  It is a shame they did not meet and talk this out.  These two ships should not have passed in the night.

The deeper issue is that there are a  lot of people in Egypt who believe the reforms the IMF requires will put the burden of economic adjustment in Egypt on the poor. Dignity requires not only respect for human rights but also a measure of social justice.  Morsi may well follow Mubarak’s example not only in political repression but also in  economic policy.

That said, the big political issue is whether the Egyptian opposition will participate in the spring elections.  The National Salvation Front, which unites a good part of the more liberal opposition in Egypt, has announced a boycott.  This is a serious error, as it will exclude them from the parliament for the next five years.  If they want human rights and social justice, the Egyptian opposition will need to find better ways to express themselves than street demonstrations, which have reached the point of diminishing returns.  Even a small number of parliamentary seats could give them substantial influence.