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Syria seen from Venus and Mars

I enjoyed yesterday two events on Syria, back to back and less than a block from each other.  An all-women panel at the Stimson Center co-sponsored by the Middle East Institute was upbeat and optimistic.  An all-men panel at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) was anything but.  Commentators on both panels were keen observers, including several with recent experience in and near Syria.

With Mona Yacoubian moderating, the Stimson/MEI panel focused on “Syria Beyond Assad: Building a New Syria from the Grassroots.”  Rafif Jouejati, spokesperson for the Local Coordinating Committees and leader of FREE Syria (a nongovernmental organization) underlined that the mood among Syrians, who are seeking freedom, dignity and democracy, is far more optimistic than the Western press would lead you to believe.  The revolution is determined to build civil society and protect minority rights.  There are still upwards of 300 peaceful demonstrations every Friday.  Fear of an Islamist takeover is exaggerated.  A hijab may be necessary to meet some people, but they quickly forget if it slips off your head.  Civil society training for Syrians in Turkey is accomplishing a lot, as they go back into Syria and train others.

Honey al Sayed, a former Syrian anchor now associated with ROYA Association for a Better Syria and the internet radio station SouriaLi emphasized the importance of rebuilding from the grassroots, as Syrian society has collapsed.  The challenges are enormous, but Syrians  believe in “unity in diversity” and will meet them.  Elizabeth O’Bagy of the Institute for the Study of War focused on the relationship between the civilian local councils and armed groups, which she said are not anxious to provide basic services or govern because they are still fighting the regime.  Warlordism is not the problem portrayed in the Western press–there is lots of room to empower civilians.  There has been some abuse of regime prisoners, looting and exploitation of aid shipments, but no major massacres.  Islamist fighters have no difficulty dealing with a Western woman asking questions.  Al Qaeda-linked Jabhat al Nusra keeps its distance, but most other armed groups do cooperate with each other.

Only Leila Hilal of the New America Foundation clouded the Venusian horizon.  The situation is complex and fluid.  There are a lot of questions about local legitimacy and authority.  Who is really in charge?  Elders?  Religious leaders? Fighters?  Technocrats?  What will their relationship be to the Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (SOC in Washington parlance)?  Will the local councils provide aid?  Will they also govern?  Are they political bodies or technical ones?  What will the role of minorities and women be?  How will Western preferences for inclusivity be met?  Should we even express them?

The clouds thickened at WINEP, where staff reported on recent travel in the region.  With Patrick Clawson moderating, Andrew Tabler described Syria as melting down and spilling over.  Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan are facing serious refugee challenges.  Jordan has seen 100,000 enter in the last 60 days, many of them running a regime gauntlet to get out of Syria.  Fighting has spilled into Lebanon.  Hizbollah and Sunni fighters are spilling back from Lebanon into Syria.  In addition to refugees, Turkey is seeing a big buildup of displaced people inside Syria along the border.  There is a concentration of Islamist extremists (including Jabhat al Nusra) along the border with Israel, which is concerned about the transfer of “strategic” weapons (chemicals, anti-aircraft and missiles) to Hizbollah and to Sunni extremists.

The food and medical supplies that the US has announced it will provide to the Coalition will not help to bring down Bashar al Asad.  Sentiment within the revolution has turned dramatically against the US and the West and towards the Salafists and jihadists.  With no political settlement in sight, the US is unable to influence the armed groups who will decide the outcome.  It would be far better to provide aid to the armed groups:  those taking the shots will soon be calling them.  The SOC, and likely the provisional government to be named this weekend, has little traction inside Syria and risks becoming a Potemkin village.

Jeff White continued in this vein.  Localized fighting is the basis of political legitimacy and power inside Syria.  The revolutionaries are fragmented.  Civilians are marginalized.  The military councils are really in charge.  The Islamists are in the vanguard.  They have cohesion, discipline, leadership and morale.  Jabhat al Nusra is also particularly good at civic action, including securing and distribution of food as well as street cleaning. Their command and control is tight.

The Free Syria Army has more problems with civilian/military relations, jihadists vs. nationalists and regime penetration.  A revolution that began in the name of freedom and democracy has turned definitively in the direction of an Islamic state.  Antipathy to the West, in particular the US, and the international community in general is strong. Conspiracy theories are common, most notably the notion that the US, Iran and Israel are collaborating against the revolution.

Though better equipped now with antitank weapons, the revolutionaries still suffer shortages and maldistribution of weapons.  Logistics are ad hoc.  There is a security vacuum in the south–a kind of no man’s land.  No two revolutionary units are alike and numbers are hard to come by.  The rebels are nevertheless gaining territory.

Though losing control, the regime remains cohesive, with good supplies from Russia and Iran.  Hizbollah’s fighting role is increasing, as is the role of irregular regime forces (Shabiha).  The army is being hollowed out, losing 40 or more dead per day and several times that in wounded.  The Syrian air force is a wasting asset.

Simon Henderson talked about Gulf attitudes, where there is strong support for the Syrian opposition because of the prospect of a strategic setback for Iran.  But competition among the Gulf states is proving stronger than their distaste for Iran.  Saudi Arabia and Qatar are both supporting the revolution, but they are also competing for influence.  The competition is trumping concern about the outcome, leaving the GCC divided in the absence of strong US leadership.  Qatar is far less willing than Saudi Arabia to be seen bucking Iran, as it shares hydrocarbon resources in the Gulf with Tehran.

Are these views from Venus and Mars reconcilable?  My heart is on Venus.  I hope the women are right.  My head is on Mars.  What the men are seeing is all too real.