Beijing needs to reign in Pyongyang

North Korea’s announcement that it plans to reopen its plutonium production reactor at Yongbyon clarifies at least one reason for its belligerent statements in recent weeks.  It will take some years to restart the reactor, which was partly dismantled in a 2007 deal that Pyongyang has in effect renounced.  Kim Jong-un is however making it clear that North Korea intends to remain a nuclear weapons power.  He (rightly) perceives that the United States would like to see his regime collapse and his people liberated.   Nuclear weapons are his security guarantee.

It is doubtful he can be bought off this idea.  Pyongyang has appointed a (relatively) “reformist” prime minister, one likely at least to continue the liberalization of the agricultural sector that has reduced economic pressure on the regime in recent years.  The people of North Korea are used to extraordinarily harsh conditions.  It does not take much to make them feel better off.

The White House is making it clear it sees no signs of preparation for war on the part of Pyongyang.  The American deployments of aircraft during the ongoing military exercises with South Korea are intended to back Seoul but also restrain it from precipitating a conflict.

So should we forget about Pyongyang and turn our attention back to Iran?  No.  Iran is apparently going to be well behaved on nuclear issues at least until its election in June.  South Korea will be under enormous pressure to respond if the North were to attack.  Even if both sides remain restrained, the Americans have a serious problem with North Korea, which has threatened to attack the United States with nuclear weapons.  It would be a mistake to forget about the threat just because the capability does not exist today.

How long will it take to acquire the capability?  It is hard of course to tell, but easy to picture that in ten years Pyongyang could have both the missiles and the nuclear weapons to strike Japan if not the United States.  I’d be surprised if there weren’t someone in the Pentagon suggesting that it would be better to deal with that threat now rather than wait.  If North Korea attacks the South, Americans and Koreans may be surprised at the extent and force of the response.

War on the Korean peninsula is a frightening proposition, even if a strike on North Korea’s missile and nuclear facilities were 100% successful.  Pyongyang would presumably respond with a massive artillery barrage against Seoul, which is well within range.  Who knows what the Chinese would do.  Last time there was war in Korea they threw their full weight behind the North.  South Korea is a major economic power these days that could suffer massive damage.  Spread of conflict to Japan and Taiwan is not inconceivable.

Even if the prospects are not good, we are thrown back to the need for diplomacy to restrain North Korea.  That’s where Beijing comes in.  The Chinese don’t like the idea of a nuclear North Korea.  They are terrified of anything that would open the door to a massive flow of refugees from the hermit kingdom.  As next door neighbors and allies, it is up to Beijing to reign in Kim Jong-un.   If they fail to do so, the consequences could be catastrophic.