Priceless

The initialing of the much-negotiated agreement between Kosovo and Serbia is certainly a source for celebration, though of course for Americans it is overshadowed by the capture in Watertown, Massachusetts of a suspect in the Boston marathon bombings.  The Tanjug photo of Catherine Ashton looking like a stern schoolteacher with her two unruly but subdued pupils, Prime Ministers Dacic and Thaci, is priceless.

It is impossible to give even a preliminary assessment of the agreement without a text.  For the moment, journalistic commentary focuses on who got who to change what.  That’s not very interesting to me, though I understand why it interests politicians who have to face the voters.  The key questions are the balance in the agreement and the extent to which it can be implemented in a straightforward way.  I can’t respond on either issue without a complete text.

Nor is the deal quite done, yet.  Initialing froze the text, but as I understand the process Ashton still expects the two sides to confirm their agreement.  They will.  It is not clear to me whether there is to be a formal signing or not.  I imagine Thaci would want one and Dacic not, since it would represent one more step on the way to Serbia acknowledging Kosovo’s statehood.

Serbia is already well down that path.  Every time the parties meet, or reach an agreement, Belgrade is implicitly acknowledging that Thaci is the legitimate representative of democratically validated institutions.  What Serbia has not acknowledged is Kosovo’s sovereignty, even if the integrated border management inches in that direction.  Serbian President Nikolic says it’s the best that could be done and reiterates that Serbia will not allow Kosovo into the UN or recognize it.  A close examination of the agreement text is needed to see if there has been any further movement in that direction.

I’ve got colleagues who hail from Kosovo and Serbia working on blogposts about the domestic implications in each of the agreement.  Thaci, who has been criticized in Kosovo for knuckling under to American and European pressure, will likely still gain a bit if Kosovars like the substance of the agreement.  Dacic has to hope that whatever he gave is more than compensated for by getting a date for EU accession negotiations.  That is not a hard test to pass so far as I am concerned, but I am not a typical Serbian voter.

One thing should be clear:  Kosovo should likewise move ahead on the path to the EU, albeit several steps behind Serbia.  That means a date for negotiation of a Stabilization and Association Agreement as well as expeditious movement on the Schengen visa waiver.

I assume none of these important side deals is written in the agreement, which is meant to bind Belgrade and Pristina, not Brussels.  But let’s not kid ourselves:  what Brussels had on offer is vital to getting this done and cannot be reneged on.

The text please.  Then we’ll really have something to write about.