Pakistan hat trick

This is pretty dramatic.  That’s Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) in the lead, by a wide margin. More knowledgeable people are predicting he’ll have little difficulty getting installed for the third time as prime minister, relying if necessary on independent votes rather than a coalition with one of the other major parties.

There is a lot of reason for celebration. Turnout was high. Though the election was marred in some places by mainly Pakistani Taliban violence, it was peaceful in much of the country. The margin of victory makes allegations of irregularities relatively unimportant to the result, even if they undermine public confidence in some places.  A good deal of effort went into purging the voter rolls and establishing the independence of the electoral commission.  If the process proceeds as anticipated, Pakistan will accomplish its first transition from one elected government to another since independence.

Best as always to look the gift horse in the mouth. There are big problems. The largest by far arise from Pakistan’s parlous economic situation, which will require for its cure a major effort to ensure payment for electricity, deregulation of energy prices, an International Monetary Fund loan, a pickup in global demand and wise management of the budget on Nawaz Sharif’s part. The odds are bad for all of that happening smoothly while Pakistan suffers attacks from insurgent groups and completion of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, ending an important boost to the Pakistani economy and a good reason for the Americans to be cooperative.

Nawaz Sharif’s victory came overwhelmingly from Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province (more than half the population lives there, and more than half the parliament is elected there). His most noisy rival, star cricketeer Imran Khan, did well in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly the Northwest Province).  The Pakistan Peoples Party, which holds a plurality of seats in the current parliament, looks likely to finish a weak second or possibly third in Saturday’s polling.

The main issues in the campaign were economic.  The Express Tribune gave a “B” to Nawaz Sharif’s center-right party manifesto on economic issues, in particular energy, fiscal responsibility, reducing regulatory hurdles, and improving government efficiency.  Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice) also got a “B,” with the PPP and other parties lagging far behind.  Of course party platforms are no more serious as an indication of how the parties will govern than they are in many other countries.  It is perhaps indicative that no grade was given on corruption, which is a serious problem at all levels in Pakistan.

What does the return of Nawaz Sharif mean for Pakistani foreign policy in general and the United States in particular?  Ahmed Rashid suggests Pakistan’s neighbors will welcome Sharif back, hope he can heal his relations with Pakistan’s army (which deposed, imprisoned and exiled him last time he was prime minister) and regain some measure of control over Pakistan’s foreign policy, which for years has been left mainly to the security forces.  An improved relationship with Afghanistan is particularly important, but Pakistan also faces challenges in dealing with its Chinese ally, which does not appreciate Muslim extremism, and with Iran, from which it hopes to import much-needed natural gas despite US opposition.  Anti-American sentiment is running high in Pakistan, in part due to drone strikes, but Sharif will need sympathy in Washington if he is to secure a big ($6-9 billion) IMF loan.

So the hat trick is to be celebrated, but Nawaz Sharif has his work cut out for him.