Is war inevitable?

This brings us to Iran. With the first round of the Iranian presidential election on Friday, the West is once again focused on the Iranian nuclear program, negotiations on which will resume once a new president is in place. To date, international sanctions have sought to punish the Iranian leadership for its defiance of the non-proliferation regime. As Iran gets closer to the production of its own nuclear weapon, sanctions have increasingly targeted Iran’s economy, hoping to change the cost/benefit analysis of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As a result , oil exports have dropped from 2.6 million barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day and overall government revenue has seen a 17% drop compared to Iran’s five-year average. Despite these effects, sanctions have been unsuccessful in compelling Iran to suspend its program.

On Monday, members of a newly-established Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs Iran Task Force met to discuss the challenges facing US national security vis-à-vis a nuclear Iran. Chaired by Ambassadors Eric Edelman and Dennis Ross, the task force spans the political spectrum, across which there is a common belief that a nuclear Iran would be detrimental to US strategic interests and dangerous to regional stability.  As the experts on the task force made clear, the Iranian nuclear program is now significantly more efficient and operating on a much larger scale than in the past. While the Iranians are careful to avoid so-called international redlines such as breaching 20% uranium enrichment levels, some estimate that they are only a matter of months away from breakout capability – a significant turning point where the only obstacle to weapons production would be their own restraint or military action.

Even as international pressure intensifies, Iran seems to be diversifying its nuclear strategy. There are two main methods to produce nuclear weapons: uranium enrichment and plutonium production.  While sanctions have targeted enrichment, Iran has meanwhile also developed a heavy-water reactor capable of plutonium production, which according to Edelman may come online as early as 2014. Sanctions have not affected this reactor.

None of the experts believe that Iran can currently produce a nuclear weapon. However, the window of opportunity to compel Iran to stop appears to be closing.

According to Ross, the US must change its rhetoric and propose an end-game that is credible to the Iranians. Otherwise the conditions for military action appear ever more likely.  The Iranians are unlikely to take current US threats seriously even though according to Ross, a former senior Obama advisor, the current administration is prepared to use force.

The task force does not believe that the upcoming elections will significantly change the prospects for negotiations with the West. Ray Takeyh, another member of the task force and a leading Iran expert, believes that Saeed Jalili, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, will win this week’s elections. Unlike other analysis, these experts anticipate the Jalili victory as a reaffirmation of the Iranian position over the Western narrative and a continuation of the status quo with regards to Iranian nuclear policy. This would likely mean increased tension, new rounds of sanctions and military confrontation.

Is war inevitable?