Meanwhile in the Balkans

I did this interview Wednesday for Bedrudin Brljavac of the Turkish Anadolu agency in Sarajevo:

1. In the aftermath of the accession of Croatia to the EU, do you think that the EU doors are still open to other Balkan countries as well, or has an idea about enlargement recently lose popularity among Europeans?

The door doesn’t really open until a country is ready to join.  I think it will open for other Balkans countries, but only when they are well prepared. 

2. Today there has appeared an interview with former Higher representative Paddy Ashdown who said that after Croatia joined the EU and Serbia joins in the future, Bosnia will stay isolated. Do you think that Bosnia can indeed stay isolated and out of the EU in the long run? Do you think that the “process of Palestinisation of Bosnia” is real and possible?

It will be up to Bosnians to determine their own fate.  If they don’t begin to prepare for the EU, they won’t get in.  But if they do, the door will open when they are ready. 

3. Recently, groups of Bosnians started protests against the country’s politicians. Do you think that these protests can change something and bring about change?

I do think the demonstrations are a positive sign that reflect the willingness of Bosnia’s citizens to demand more than they have been getting.  That’s good in my book. 

4. Do you think that the membershio of regional countries in the EU and NATO can be a solution for the region of Balkan? Can these two organisations really reduce nationalistic tensions in the region, especially in Bosnia and Kosovo?

Yes, I think NATO and eventually EU membership will contribute enormously to increasing security and reducing nationalist tensions throughout the Balkans. 

5. Also, very often we can hear calls from Bosnian Serb politicians about disintegration of Bosnia. Do you think that Republika Srpska will in the future become independent country as Kosovo has become? Will international community allow such state of affairs?

No.  Republika Srpska will not become independent.  If it were to declare independence, no one would recognize it. 

6. Is the political and social situation in the Balkans so problematic as its seems or is it exaggerated a bit?

The problems in Bosnia are not insoluble.  But there is little political will to solve them.  I might wish for different political leadership, but that is up to Bosnians.

7. Why the EU and US simply do not intervene into the Bosnian political crisis and find some reasonable solution? Has the US decreased its role in the Balkans and Bosnia especially as it seems that the EU is in recent years more active and dynamic in this part of the world?

Neither the US nor the EU has enough at stake in Bosnia to intervene.  Washington is trying to reduce its responsibilities in the Balkans and wants the EU to play a stronger role. 

8. Now I will turn to the Arab countries especially to Egypt where we can watch a series of protests these days. Do you think that democracy will flourish in these countries or will they go back to totalitarian and autocratic regimes as in the past?

Hard to tell.  I think Tunisia is moving, slowly and with difficulty, in the right direction.  I think Libya is as well, despite its problems with militias and extremists.  Yemen is engaged in a serious national dialogue.  But Egypt is a big question mark. 

9. The Syrian crisis goes on so do you think that the US is at the end of the day intervene militarily and solve the problem. Or can the war in Syria bring about more serious conflicts between Iran on the one side and US and Israel on the other?

I do not expect direct US military intervention at this point, but Washington is trying to level the playing field by increasing arms supplies to the revolutionaries.