China should concern us

With current events keeping the 24-hour news cycle focused elsewhere, one issue that doesn’t get enough attention these days is growing tension between the US and China. With an ongoing cyber-war , hostile actions in outer space , and increasingly confrontational military buildups and posturing, the military rivalry between the world’s two largest economies is worrisome.

Larry Wortzel, a respected China expert and retired US army colonel, spoke yesterday at the Heritage Foundation about his recently published The Dragon Extends its Reach: Chinese Military Power Goes Global.  Describing China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Wortzel is skeptical about the future of US – Chinese relations. He dismisses those who view China’s economic and military growth as benign and believes that both the near and long-term future will be characterized by friction, competition, and potential for conflict.

Wortzel highlights official PLA doctrine, which calls for paralyzing an enemy’s centers of gravity and overseas installations and as well as attacking an enemy’s homeland. Taken from older military philosophies such as Sun Tzu but adapted to modern technologies, PLA doctrine centers on deception, attacks on infrastructure, and espionage. The Chinese have become increasingly adept at cyber-warfare capabilities and over the past decade have begun innovating.

The PLA still has its limitations. The Chinesecannot produce adequate engines for most of their military vehicles.  This includes jets, tanks, and most of their larger naval ships. To overcome the challenge, the Chinese rely on reverse engineering Western technologies, human intelligence, and cyber-warfare.  The Chinese are attempting to deny the US the ability to operate freely in and around China’s borders. Their cyber and space warfare capabilities are notable.  But their doctrine is silent on what Wortzel calls “escalation-ladders” – actions or threats that would create the conditions for the Chinese to paralyze their enemy.

The Chinese understand the strength of U.S. military capabilities, infrastructure and communication systems. They carefully observed U.S. actions over the past twenty years in the Balkans and the Middle East and have read everything published about these experiences. As a consequence, the PLA is evolving. Decisions are now being made at lower levels of command, more complicated military drills are being successfully completed, and more diverse units are being incorporated to expand the PLA’s force capabilities.

Perhaps most dangerous to US security interests is that our allies continue to sell arms to the PLA. This gives Beijing greater flexibility in its military development.

Wortzel is not suggesting that tensions with China will inevitably lead to war. But he is cautious about the future of relations with the Chinese. The Chinese understand American military doctrine, but there is still much that we don’t know about theirs. Their intentions, the size of their nuclear arsenals, and their assessments of threat remain largely unknown or uncertain. While the PLA may be hesitant to establish garrisoned bases around the world as the US has done, they are beginning to lay the foundations.

Border disputes with China’s neighbors, the US pivot to Asia, and of course Taiwan will remain contentious in the years and decades to come.  Current events may keep us busy but we should keep an eye on China.