Sweet reason

Former Serbian Foreign Minister Goran Svilanovic stopped by SAIS yesterday afternoon to talk about the Regional Cooperation Council (RCC), the Balkans organization that took over the legacy of the Stability Pact.  That was the organization launched in 1999 to give the Balkans “a European perspective.”  A solid anti-nationlist who began his distinguished career in Belgrade’s Center for Antiwar Action (we are talking Milosevic’s time), Goran was a member of the Civic Alliance, foreign minister 2000-2004, an official of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and a consistent voice of reason in a part of the world that has known its share of madness.

Sweet reason was what he dispensed here.

The Balkans have seen a lot of progress:  Croatia’s accession last summer to the European Union, Albania’s peaceful election and turnover of power, Kosovo’s dialogue and April agreement with Serbia, Montenegro’s impending start of accession negotiations.

There are really only two countries still unable to overcome their serious political challenges:  Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia, which Goran referred to dutifully as the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM).  Bosnia has been unable to change its constitution to meet the requirements of a ruling of the European Court of Human Rights, which thought all citizens should be eligible to become candidates for president, regardless of ethnicity.  Macedonia has been unable to resolve Greece’s objections to its constitutional name (Republic of Macedonia), despite a ruling in Skopje’s favor by the International Court of Justice.

What can the RCC do?  Nothing direct on those issues.  It can instead focus on the economy.  Since the financial crisis, the region has lost 800,000 jobs.  Average GDP per capita is only 38% of the EU average.  Unemployment is on the order of 40%. What the RCC needs to do is focus on economic and social development, energy infrastructure, human capital and rule of law, especially the fight against corruption.

These efforts will facilitate regional cooperation in support of EU and NATO integration, which have proven essential to solving Balkans problems.  The EU magnet is particularly important for Belgrade and Pristina.  There is some hope that the “Western Balkans 6” (if I understood correctly that’s Serbia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Bosnia, Macedonia, and Albania) can collaborate through regular meetings of prime ministers on infrastructure projects, for which the EU has made 12 billion euros available.  Goran also expects them to agree to regular ministerial-level examinations of their finances, as other European countries already do.

The problem is that the EU magnet may not work for Bosnia and Macedonia, because the EU 28 are not sending a clear and consistent message.  The EU has to keep the process alive and the door open if it wants to encourage Sarajevo and Skopje to solve their longstanding issues.   Carrots will work better than sticks, Goran thought, despite a strong pitch from moderator Mike Haltzel that the combination would work better.

I confess to enjoying an hour listening to a wise and experienced statesman who thinks economic growth and jobs can soften Balkans nationalism.  Even better listening to someone really trying to make it happen.  But something tells me the dominant politicians in Bosnia and Macedonia are less interested in economic growth and more interested in their own careers (and in some cases ill gotten gains).  More power to Goran, who faces an uphill battle.