Wait and see

Secretary of State Kerry today urged Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to accept the Ukrainian parliament’s dismissal of President Yanukovich and its appointment of an acting president and prime minister.  This follows on Susan Rice’s warning yesterday against Russian military intervention.  There is a great deal riding on Moscow’s responses.

Judging from past performance–something our stock brokers warn us not to do–Russia will be deaf to American pleas.  When and where pro-Russian populations have managed to carve out an area of territorial autonomy in former Soviet republics, Moscow has been unwavering in its support:  witness Trans-Dniester in Moldova as well as Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia.  If some of the eastern provinces of Ukraine were to resist the new authorities in Kiev and declare themselves autonomous or even independent, Moscow would be tempted to provide what support they require, including troops.  They wouldn’t invade.  That’s so twentieth century.  They could respond to a request for assistance to prevent atrocities.

Moscow seems to be hesitating, at least for the moment.  Vladimir Putin did not like Viktor Yanukovich, but he loaned him a good deal of money.  Russia will want it back from the new authorities in Kiev, which could be difficult to arrange if it is occupying a portion of Ukraine.  It might be better to establish decent relations and use Ukraine’s need for Russian money and natural gas to keep the whole country under Moscow’s influence, if not under its thumb, rather than settling for half a loaf, or less.  The likely exception to such a choice would be Crimea, which was transferred to Ukraine only in the 1950s and hosts a big piece of the Russian navy at Sevastopol.

Now that the Sochi Olympics are over, President Putin is free to try to hive off a piece of Ukraine, if that is what he wants to do.  But making trouble in a neighboring state is rarely a good strategy, however tempting tactically.  Moscow doesn’t need the difficulties that could ensue from a change of borders in Europe.  Federalism is a real option, as Dimitri Trenin points out:

If Dimitri doesn’t know what is going to happen, certainly I don’t either.  We need to wait and see what Moscow intends to do, or not.

In the meanwhile, it would help if the new authorities in Kiev avoid moves that offend the Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine and try to widen their support base as much as possible.  Their revolution faces a steep uphill climb.  Making things more difficult is not wise.