No end in sight

Syria is the most rapid and widespread displacement of people since the Rwandan civil war of the 1990s, according to State Department Deputy Assistant Secretary Kelley Clements of the Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration.  Last Friday’s  Brookings Institution/Mercy Corps panel focused on “No End in Sight: Syria’s Refugees and Regional Repercussions,” drawing on humanitarian and diplomatic expertise from Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, and the United States.

Ambassador Antoine Chedid said Lebanon honors its international commitments to meeting the needs of Syrian refugees and asylum seekers, who are straining the country’s public services and the economy. Lebanon’s population has increase by about one-third. This population bulge has distorted the economy, increasing the unemployment rate and driving the cost of rent upward. Conditions in the refugee camps are exacerbating poor health and insecurity as well as breeding terrorism and radicalization. The Lebanese government favors creation of safe zones within Syria, but these are controversial, because their civilian population can become a target of the warring parties.

Ambassador Lukman Faily noted that Iraq does not face the same financial constraints and shortage of capacity as Lebanon.  Many of the Syrian refugees and asylum seekers entering Iraq are Kurdish and thus settle in the Kurdish north. But Iraq’s precarious security situation makes terrorism a daily concern.  Spillover of violence from Syria challenges Iraq’s already fragile security structure.

Mercy Corp’s Dina Sabbagh, a Jordanian who serves as Mercy Corps deputy chief of party, said the influx of Syrian refugees was aggravating Jordan’s long struggle with water scarcity. Jordanians who were already accustomed to limiting their water consumption to 100 liters per person per day now had to reduce their usage to 30 liters per person per day. Mercy Corps projects are now directed at behavioral change for newly arrived Syrians and improving relations between Jordanians and Syrians, which are prone to minor disputes because of water scarcity.

Kemal Kirisci of the Brookings Institution offered that field work he has done among Syrian refugees and Turkish citizens illustrates changes in Turkish public opinion, which is less accepting than once it was. The government of Turkey has two options when it comes to addressing the needs of the Syrian refugees. The first option is repatriation, but the legal and financial limitations in addition to security concerns make this an extremely unlikely option. Instead the Turkish government will have to make realistic attempts at integration.

After pointing out that the only real solution to the humanitarian crisis was a political solution, from the audience SAIS Professor William Zartman asked what is being done to move the parties closer to a resolution of the conflict. Clements emphasized the unwavering US commitment to finding a political solution.  But it is not clear how the situation can be ripened for a negotiated solution.

Post-conflict transition in Syria will require not only the reconstruction inside but the cooperation of Syria’s neighbors. This requires will require strong economic, political, sustainable development, and psychosocial acumen. The panelists’ descriptions of the repercussions of the conflict additionally demonstrate that regional tensions and divisions have already been created. As practitioners of conflict management, it is necessary to remember that post-conflict transition requires innovative solutions to repatriation and a regional multifaceted perspective.