Maliki weakened but still relatively strong

Hayder al-Khoei (‏@Hayder_alKhoei) is reporting unofficial Iraq results from yesterday’s election for numbers of seats in parliament (total number of seats is 328, 165 needed for a majority):

Maliki: 68
Hakim: 48
Nujaifi: 37
Sadr: 31
Barzani: 20
Mustafa: 15
Allawi: 14
PUK: 14
Mutlaq: 11
Musa: 11

These are not final numbers, which often vary from initial reports.

If these hold, Maliki has done less well than many anticipated (80-90 was a common figure when I was in Iraq last month).  He will need Hakim or Sadr or both to stick with him in order to win a third mandate.  If he fails at that, the chances for an anti-Maliki coalition (presumably based on Hakim, Sadr, Nujaifi plus the Kurds) would rise significantly.

In any event, this is a more fragmented result than in 2010, when Allawi’s Iraqiyya beat Maliki 91 to 89 but Maliki formed a larger post-electoral coalition.  Fragmentation could mean a lengthy government-formation period.  Maliki would remain a caretaker with no parliament in place until the speaker is chosen and a president elected.  That would give him time and running room, which he is adept at using.

We’ll have to wait and see whether this unofficial tally holds.