A good election, now work to be done

It seems safe to say now that Prime Minister Hashim Thaci’s PDK has won Kosovo’s Sunday parliamentary election, with close to 31% of the vote.  Second place LDK was closer than some anticipated at almost 26%, but the big news was that the “Self-Determination” movement led by Albin Kurti beat out Ramush Haradinaj’s AAK, 13.5% to 9.6%.  Overall turnout was low at about 42%.  The Serb List garnered 4.2%, after a Belgrade push for Serbs in Kosovo to vote.

My friends who wished for a major shift in political power will be disappointed.  My friends in the PDK are celebrating, even if the margin was narrower than some imagined.

My fondest wish was apparently realized:  under the watchful eyes of a lot of Kosovo observers, the election appears to have been clean.  I am told the biggest problems were attempts to influence voters within the restricted area near polling stations, problems with the voters’ list, and family-influenced voting.  I have not heard complaints of ballot-box stuffing, intimidation or other wholesale cheating.  Complaints were similar in Serb and Albanian areas.

There are lots of mathematical possibilities for Thaci to gain a majority.  With minorities, any of the top Albanian parties might do as a partner.  While Thaci has told many people he would prefer to retire from the prime ministry, I and a lot of other people will be surprised if he actually does it.  His party has found him to be the absolutely necessary glue to hold things together.  They won’t want him throwing in the towel after a respectable, if narrower than hoped for, victory.

The big issues facing Thaci or any other prime minister for the next four years will be economic.  Kosovo needs much more investment (foreign and domestic) to create jobs for its still rapidly growing and young population.  Some would like to focus on government-controlled investment, using funds held so far abroad.  A wise course would be to improve conditions for private investment, both domestic and international.  This will not be easy:  Kosovo holds an unenviable 86th position in the World Bank’s ease of doing business ranking, admittedly ahead of Serbia and Albania but well behind neighboring Macedonia and Montenegro.  The perception of corruption is a big hindrance to investment.  Kosovo manages only 111th in the Transparency International ranking.

But whatever Kosovo’s problems, a decent election is a good foundation.  Kosovo knows its ultimate goals:  membership in NATO and the EU.  Now it has to decide how to make tangible progress in that direction during the next four years.  The country is a long way from where it was at independence six years ago, but it is still much farther than that from its ultimate goals.

PS:  a late thought:  all that NGO energy that went into election monitoring needs now to turn to accountaility and transparency of government actions.  There is work to be done for everyone.