My colleague here at SAIS, Professor Sinisa Vukovic, has provided a translation of my interview yesterday with Voice of America on the situation in Montenegro, where anti-government demonstrations have turned violent. Here is what he sent me, based on what RTCG* published:
“Jasno je da su protesti bili nasilni. Ne znam da li su predstavljali pokušaj da se silom sruši vlada, ali ne smatram da će se to dogoditi u Crnoj Gori.”
It was clear that the protests were violent. I am not sure if this was an attempt to topple the government by force, but I believe that this could not happen in Montenegro.
Then they gave your remarks that the opposition in Montenegro is weak and fragmented, still not accepting Montenegrin independence, and now also of the Montenegro’s decision to join NATO:
“Da bi se smijenila vlada u demokratskom sistemu, potrebno je više glasova i ne vidim kako će ove nasilne demonstracije donijeti opoziciji više glasova ili joj pomoći da se ujedini. Ljudi mogu da vole ili ne vole Đukanovića, ali je činjenica da je on na vlasti zbog demokratskog sistema i biće ga teško smijeniti na uličnim demonstracijama. U demokratskom sistemu to se radi na biračkim mjestima,” dodao je on.
To assume power in a democratic system, it is important to obtain more votes, and I am not sure how such violent protests could contribute in gaining more votes, or even uniting opposition. People can love or hate Djukanovic, but the fact of the matter is that he is in power thanks to a democratic system and it will be very difficult to take over the power from him through street demonstrations. In democratic systems this is done through elections.
“Moskva će pokušati da stvori utisak intenziviranja napora protiv Đukanovića, ali je u stvari riječ o protivljenju članstvu Crne Gore u NATO. Za Moskvu, Đukanović je nevažan, važno je pitanje članstva u NATO. Proširenje Alijanse, čak i na malu Crnu Goru poraz je za Putina i oni će pokušati da izbjegnu da budu poraženi”, rekao je Server.
Moscow will try to create an impression that there are intensifying efforts against Djukanovic, but in reality it is all about resisting Montenegrin membership in NATO. For Moscow Djukanovic is insignificant, what is important is NATO membership. NATO enlargement, even when it comes to small Montenegro, is a defeat for Putin, and they will try to avoid that kind of defeat.
Then they said that you are confident that Montenegro will get invited to join NATO:
“Dok god su bezbjednosne snage udržane i ne koriste prekomjernu silu i dok god je jasno da Crna Gora ima prilično snažnu grupu koja podržava članstvo, mislim da će NATO prepoznati šta je suština ovoga. Ovi protesti će, možda, u stvari učvrstiti podšku Crnoj Gori unutar Alijanse”, zaključio je on.
As long as the security forces refrain from using excessive force, and as long as it is clear that Montenegro has a considerably stronger group that supports its membership, I believe that NATO will recognize what is behind this. These protests might in fact solidify support for the Montenegrin bid among NATO member states.
*Sinisa tells me I was wrong when I said yesterday Vijesti published the interview. He informs that it was Montenegrin Radio and Television (RTCG).