Day: February 16, 2016
Applying
A Facebook friend wondered over the weekend whether I was being skeptical or just superficial when I tweeted:
The one thing on which #Bosnia‘ns agree is that the country is not qualified for EU membership. So what do they do? Apply.
Skeptical was more like it. All you have to do to understand in depth why is take a glance at last year’s European Commission progress report on Bosnia and Herzegovina. Guess what? It shows little progress.
Brussels reads its own reports, so we can be sure the Europeans know that. The European Union remedy has been to push a “Reform Agenda” that starts with labor market reform. The reasoning is that only by lowering labor costs and increasing labor flexibility will Bosnian companies be able to compete effectively and expand in the future.
So far so good, but that is an indirect way of attacking Bosnia’s problems, which lie in a political economy that enriches politicians and impoverishes most of the population. I don’t say labor market reform won’t help, in particular if it reduces costs, increases competition and makes it harder for politicians to exploit patronage, but it is far from sufficient.
Bosnia needs prosecutions. The rip-offs are well-documented. It seems to me inconceivable that professional prosecutors would not have sufficient evidence. The international community should be able to help by tracing the tycoons’ finances and freezing ill-gotten gains. Precious little of that has been done.
The only really high-level prosecution these days is directed at an upstart politician, Fahrudin Radoncic, not for ripping off the state but rather for witness tampering in a Kosovo drug investigation. I don’t have any idea whether Radoncic is guilty or innocent (and he should be presumed the latter of course), but I am pretty sure that case will not do much to undermine the web of corruption and misappropriation of state assets that plagues Bosnia. The prosecutors’ use of wiretaps, however, demonstrates unequivocally that the judicial system in Bosnia has the means, but not the will, to attack other high-level corruption.
I’d be the first to admit that the United States suffers from high-level corrupt practices as well. A year doesn’t go by without charges against a governor here, a couple of members of Congress there, and dozens of state legislators, including in states far larger and with bigger economies than Bosnia. You need to be worried not when such cases are pursued but when they aren’t.
That’s the situation in Bosnia today. Despite a newly inked anti-corruption plan, the European Commission reports:
Organized crime cases in 2015 led to the confiscation of 550,000 euros. That’s peanuts. Hundreds of millions if not billions would be more like it.
If Bosnia and Herzegovina is serious about getting into the EU, it will need to skip confiscating the peanuts and trap the elephants. If the application for membership helps to mobilize the political will required, it’s all for the better. But it is far more likely to amount to nothing more than a maneuver to convince an already disheartened electorate that progress is being made.
Bosnia needs not only to apply to the EU, but also to apply itself to qualifying for membership.
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Besieged
The Atlantic Council hosted ‘Inside the Sieges: Scope and Implications of Besieged Syria’ on Wednesday. Mohamad Katoub, Protection Officer for the Syrian American Medical Society, Valerie Szybala, Executive Director of The Syria Institute, and Jan Jap van Oosterzee, Middle East Policy Lead at PAX led the discussion, while Faysal Itani, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, moderated and Frederic C. Hof, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council offered opening remarks.
Katoub began by explaining the circumstances he and his family were under when they left Damascus. He had no milk to feed his son, and the situation was becoming dire. In a besieged area, people will do anything to survive, and the main concern is to feed the children. Katoub’s family decided it was time to seek a better situation. Katoub, his wife, and son were able to leave Damascus, as it is easier to go through checkpoints as a family. Katoub stated plainly that he does not want asylum. He wants to be able to return to Syria, which will only be possible if peace is secured.
In Damascus, nearly 5,000 people have died from cluster bombs. Smuggling medication past checkpoints is very dangerous, and there are not enough vaccinations to serve the entire population. The situation in the newly besieged area of Aleppo shows just how much the UN resolution for humanitarian aid needs to be implemented. Civilians do not have food, vaccinations, medication, and are suffering from barrel bombs. The civilians of Syria cannot wait for negotiations to succeed in order to receive aid.
Oosterzee explained that PAX has been working in Syria since 2003 and has worked with civil society activists even before the uprising. PAX has worked with local councils since the conflict began, too. PAX has received questions on why they are so focused on exact numbers. Having the correct numbers shows if there is a pattern. One of the trends in Syria is how starvation has become a weapon of war. The situation looks worse based on the data. Oosterzee pointed out that a lot of international attention helps a little bit.
Szybala talked about The Syria Institute’s Siege Watch report, which was written because recognition is needed of what is actually happening on the ground in Syria. The United Nations is not reporting the real damage. For instance, the UN only recognizes only 181,000 people in Damascus under siege, while the real total is close to 500,000. This report’s information was collected from contacts on the ground, who submit surveys on population movements, deaths, and food amounts in their communities.
Siege Watch found that siege leads to economic collapse. Extortion and smuggling are far too common. Massive displacement occurs, from movement out of the area or from movement from one besieged area to another besieged area. Recruitment by the regime and extremist groups often takes place, as unemployment is high.
Current besieged areas include Idlib, Homs, Damascus and its countryside, and Deir Ezzor. Idlib is the only siege implemented by opposition troops. Civilians there have received airdrops from the Syrian government. The Syrian regime carries out a siege much more efficiently because it has the manpower and resources to do so. Collective punishment and the prevention of humanitarian aid are common. The Siege Watch report is critical to understanding the ground situation and to have exact information on war crimes.
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