Day: February 24, 2016

No one gets dragged into NATO

Vladimir Filipović of Belgrade daily Blic asked me some questions about the US bombing in Libya that killed, among others, two Serbs. I asnwered:

1. Do you think that this incident will affect Serbia’s relations with NATO and US, and that maybe Russia will try to use this situation to get closer to Serbia at that expense?

DPS: First let me say how regrettable the death of the Serbian diplomats is. There is no excuse for their abduction and imprisonment. Their deaths in an American raid against their captors was clearly unintended.

Russia will use any incident it can to denounce NATO and the US, as Moscow seeks to block NATO expansion in the Balkans. You can tell how sincere the Russians are by watching how many civilians they are killing in Syria, despite their continuing denials.

2. Do you think that something would be different if the US knew that there are two Serbian hostages in Sabratha, in that specific terrorist object? That the attack maybe would be postponed or differently conducted?

DPS: My understanding of American policy is that Washington seeks to avoid civilian deaths. I certainly hope that the attack would have been postponed or conducted differently had Washington known of the presence of the Serbs, or any other prisoners. But on that subject you really need to talk with an official spokesperson.

Vladimir wasn’t satisfied, so he asked me to expand and I replied again:

3. If you could expand your yesterday’s statement about Russia trying to use the incident in Libya to get closer to Serbia at the expense of NATO and USA.

DPS: What’s to add? It is clear that Moscow is desperate to keep Serbia out of NATO and will use any incident to accomplish its objective.

No one gets dragged into NATO. They come because they believe it will make their country more secure. With Russia increasingly aggressive in Europe and the Middle East, it is not hard to imagine ways in which NATO membership will make a country more secure. The only humiliation comes from toeing the Russian line rather than helping to shape the NATO line.

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Moscow’s steps toward strategic defeat

It would be hard to do better on Syria this morning than listening to this NPR report on Aleppo:

But remember: every tactical Russian gain today is a step towards strategic defeat tomorrow. The winners, however, are increasingly likely to be extremists, not moderates.

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