The day after Mosul

It is almost certain that ISIS’s Iraqi capital, Mosul, will fall to Iraqi and Kurdish forces within the next year. However, the question remains as to how the city will rebuild itself. For that, we can look to the experience of Kirkuk, another major Iraqi city that was secured by Kurdish forces in 2014.

On Monday, the Kirkuki governor Najmaldin Karim spoke at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He was interviewed by Michael Knights, a Lafer fellow at the Washington Institute.

Karim explained that despite the Kurdish control of the city, Kirkuk is in a precarious position. Since the Mosul operation began last month, ISIS militants have begun attacking Kirkuk, leading to 13 deaths and 200 injuries. It is difficult for Kirkuki officials to detect ISIS militants because they disguise themselves as civilians and internally displace people (IDPs). Additionally, some of the suburbs around Kirkuk are still controlled by ISIS. These represent a major threat to Kirkuk. The governor expressed disappointment that the Iraqi military and the Peshmerga decided to address the problem in Mosul before the problems around Kirkuk.

The problems that created Al Qaeda in Iraq—ISIS’s predecessor—still exist. The discord between Iraqi Sunnis and Shias as well as Kurds and Arabs still causes problems in Iraq. If these divisions are not addressed, ISIS or another radical group will take root in Iraq even after the Mosul operation ends. Karim noted that Mosul is especially tricky due to its internal ethnic divisions and the large number of ISIS supporters in the city. It will also be very difficult to return IDPs to the city, since much of it will be destroyed in the fighting.

Karim focused on how Kirkuk has been handling its population of IDPs. The majority are Sunnis from Mosul. Some are from towns that have already been liberated from ISIS, but due to destruction they have not been able to return. The city has received no financial assistance from Baghdad to help care for and resettle the IDPs. In fact, the city is fully supported by the KRG, which has not been able to give Kirkuk what it should. Karim sees the issue of IDPs as central to the rebuilding of Iraq. If the IDPs cannot return home and lead happy, productive lives, Iraq will remain in chaos, even after ISIS has left the country.

Karim was asked if he were the governor of Mosul, what would be his priorities for the day after liberation? He answered that he would be vigilant not to prioritize certain areas over others. If the governor of Mosul chooses to rebuild Shia areas before Sunni areas, the Sunni population of Mosul would rise up in protest and cause instability. Rebuilding should be prioritized based on the number of people.

The KRG representative to the United States, Bayan Sami Abdul Rahman asked Karim if perhaps Kirkuk is subtly trying to pursue an agenda of Arabization by accepting a large number of Sunni Arab IDPs. Karim admitted that from an outsider’s perspective it might look as though this is Kirkuk’s agenda, especially given Arabization efforts in Kirkuk in the past. However, he said, Kirkuk is desperately trying to return the IDPs to their homes. They are stuck in Kirkuk for the time being, for better or for worse.

Karim said that he hopes President-elect Trump will focus more on stabilizing Iraq rather than defeating ISIS. Kurds are worried that once ISIS is defeated they will lose US support and will not be able to pursue their goal of independence. However, Karim remains hopeful that KRG president Barzani will be able to negotiate greater Kurdish autonomy with Iraqi president Al-Abadi in the aftermath of the Mosul operation.