The Chinese are awaiting opportunity

As I’m in China, a few words about how Trump is viewed from here are in order. I don’t speak Chinese, so this appraisal draws on pre-inauguration elite conversations and articles in the English-language government rag China Daily, hardly a representative sample but possibly a  significant one.

While Trump thunders about protection, the Chinese are following their own leader in supporting globalization but at same time avoiding confrontation. They hear Trump loud and clear. I suspect some admire the bluntness and bravado. This they, think, is the way we’ll be able to behave when we are sitting atop the world. Great powers make the rules but also break them. Same rules as Beijing traffic: the bigger vehicle has the right of way.

In the meanwhile, China is studiously avoiding over-reaction. The biggest headline in today’s China Daily is not about the inauguration but rather the appointment of a new Chinese navy commander. He led participation in an American naval exercise in 2014 and brought his ships into San Diego for a five-day port visit. 

Trump’s unpredictabilty is, the Chinese think, dangerous, not only to China. They know all too well that trade and investment are two-way streets. Tariffs on Chinese goods will slow US growth, hurt American companies with investments in China, and raise costs to American consumers. Beijing’s own priority is in any event to increase domestic Chinese consumption, not increase exports. They have been supporting their currency, not devaluing as Trump has falsely claimed.

The pre-inauguration coverage focused on interviewing American Trump enthusiasts and professors urging caution and patience, with some hoping for improved cooperation. None of this would get published if it were inconsistent with government views. But the Chinese will be quick to take advantage of any mistakes Trump makes. That’s one of their traffic rules too: stay calm until there is opening, then go for it.

But for now they are staying in lane and making American-style noises about the possibility of win/win outcomes. They don’t want to be the victims of Trump’s first mistake, or even his second. But you can be sure they’ll be ready when the time comes to profit from them.  One likely opening will come when he bags the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Another could come in a military confrontation, perhaps in the South China Sea. Watch this space.