America alone is weak

Here’s how I see the US in the Middle East today:

1. Move of its embassy to Jerusalem will mark the end of a role for Washington as mediator in negotiations between Israel and Palestine.
2. Support for the Kurds in northern Syria is pushing Turkey further from the NATO alliance and into the arms of the Russians.
3. Withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the threat of sanctions will push the Europeans into the arms of the Iranians.
4. Encouragement of Saudi and Emirati belligerence towards Qatar has split the Gulf Cooperation Council and pushed Qatar towards Iran.

Abandoning the Washington consensus, the Trump Administration is proving why that consensus existed: it ensured that the United States maintained alliances and could act with multilateral approval on a wide range of issues. America First is indeed proving to be America Alone.

There are few benefits to the US from this break with the past. The move of the embassy to Jerusalem will please Trump’s evangelical Christian and conservative Jewish supporters, but most American Jews are liberal and understand why it would have been better to await a final status settlement and creation of a Palestinian state before moving the embassy. US support for the Kurds has enabled a victory over the Islamic State but now threatens to further undermine relations with Ankara and Alliance solidarity. No one even pretends that withdrawing from the Iran deal will do any good, since Russia and China will not rejoin sanctions (and the Europeans will fight them). The split in the GCC benefits Iran and Turkey, not the US.

The countries pleased with what Trump is doing are Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. This is the new alliance Washington hopes to array against Iran. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are struggling to hold their own militarily and politically in Yemen, one of the world’s poorest countries. Can they be relied on for more than sword dance extravaganzas? Trump’s unconditional support for Israel has given a whole lot more than it has gotten. The Israelis continue to expand settlements on the West Bank and to kill Gaza demonstrators. Trump apparently expects no more more restraint on the part of others than he demonstrates himself.

America is losing ground in the Middle East even faster than under President Obama, who notoriously thought we were spending too much treasure and effort there. Trump used to think so too, but now National Security Adviser Bolton is pushing him towards confrontation with Iran, in an apparent attempt to precipitate regime change. That would be much more likely if the Iran deal had been maintained. Withdrawal from it gives Iranian hardliners more political support and the regime a good excuse for why economic performance is so bad.

Oddly, Trump has done virtually nothing to respond to Iranian behavior in the region, which is unquestionably nefarious. Particular in Syria but also in Lebanon, Bahrain, Yemen, and Iraq Trump has done nothing beyond what his predecessor already was doing to push back against Iran. America Alone is a weak America, not a strong one.